Aging Up

Looking At Ages of When People Die Give Should Give You Pause

We intuitively know we aren’t going to live forever. 2021, I had a bunch of health challenges that I never anticipated. It’s known that a lot of people tend to die right before, or right after the holidays and this year is no different. In the last couple of days, we saw John Madden go at age 85, Dan Reeves at age 77, Larry Biittner at age 75.

70+ up to 80 seems a little close for comfort.

It’s sobering since I turn 60 this year. My old USAFA roomie just milestoned. A bunch of my buddies hit 60 before me so it is now staring us in the face.

My grandparents on my mother’s side lived until they were 98. My father’s parents died very young. Younger than I am today. My mother is still alive and so is my father. Both are in their 80s. So, it seems I might have genetics on my side anyway.

But, the reality is the most I have left is probably 20-40 years.

I have had friends die but it’s usually been one of three things.

• Suicide

• Cancer

• Heart Attack

To me, Covid isn’t that big a deal except if you are past the age of 70. Then, it might be a bigger deal. I just got over it and I think I had the Delta variant because everyone I know that had Omicron had different symptoms. I slept a lot and was down for the count but never thought I had to go to the hospital. Remember, the average age of death for Covid is 78, and that happens to be the average age of death for people in the US. Turns out when you look at recent stats on Omicron, it’s a bad cold. That spells the end of the virus and hopefully, we can get back to normal nationwide, not just in red states.

I have hit the age where I can dip into my retirement. I always saved a ton for retirement since I was self-employed and couldn’t rely on a pension. I had to build my own. The Congress seems to want to dip their hands in it too. They are changing the rules of the game on self-directed IRAs and IRAs after we played the game for the last 40 years. It’s a little unfair and given the bent of the current Congress where they think it is their money not yours, it gives you pause.

Congresspeople never take risk. They don’t understand those of us that took a lot of risk for a living. We didn’t get “lucky”. We had a unique skill and understanding of the world.

The small little venture fund we had is done. We are in maintenance mode and mentorship mode. Companies will continue to grow, and the CEO’s reach out to me to ping me with questions as they go. I am happy that I have the relationships with them that I do.

But, I struggle with if I want to “work” anymore.

I am not sure I have the same fire in the belly. I have always been super competitive. Always been a builder, a striver. But, I am not sure I want to go through the brain damage of doing that again, nor do I know if I want to assume the risk.

Risk is the key for people like me. It’s all about cost/benefit analysis and the probability of success.

The fly in the ointment for planning is inflation. I thought it might be transitory when it started. A big exogenous shock brought to you buy Covid and supply chain upheaval. But, given the bent of the current administration, it doesn’t look like the inflation train is going to slow down anytime soon. Economic growth doesn’t look like it is coming back either.

If you want to read a great piece on inflation, read this by Economist and finance expert John Cochrane. I thought it was the best and most cogent thing I have read with regard to US Treasury and Federal Reserve operations during the Covid crisis.

My gut is after the November 2022 elections, we will be in suspended animation until the November 2024 elections. The opposing sides are that far apart. It’s really a choice between a big government, high debt, a socialistic future, and freedom. It’s pretty easy to see a future where states secede-especially if the Democrats nationalize elections and institutionalize voter fraud.

It’s funny if you segment your life into decades. The 0-10, you are totally dependent on your parents. 10-20, you are still dependent on your parents, but friend groups and your school has a big influence on your thoughts, hopes, and dreams. From 20-30, you are establishing yourself. You are the young guy at work, figuring it out. You crave mentorship. 30-40 you should be hitting on all cylinders. 40-50 is more of the same. 50-60, you start to see the end.

I don’t think that any decade is “easy”. Some seem harder than others. But, my 40-60 was very tumultuous due to the technological change in trading. I also know that I have been singular in what I have done for my entire life. It’s been me against the world. Trading was just like that and startup investing isn’t a lot different.

A lot of folks I know are retiring from jobs and careers. They did a corporate thing their whole lives. They are the elder statesmen inside their companies. I can remember being a young buck in 1984 at 3M and seeing some of the older guys and thinking, “can I ever get there?”. Then, I got into trading.

We old traders are a different breed of cat. Self-determined our whole lives. If any of them read this they can weigh in their thoughts in the comments. I love being around old traders because you never know what will happen next. Because they look at the world differently than anyone else, you get some off the wall insights and very dark humor.

I saw where Commonwealth Edison is going to turn an old trading floor into an electronic substation to provide more electrical power to the Loop. All I can say is if you would have harnessed all the methane that was emitted on that trading floor over the years, there would be enough stored power to propel every Tesla until the end of mankind.

I know I don’t want to “die at my desk”. But, you feel like at this age you are still healthy enough and smart enough that you have something to give. You worry that your brain will turn into mush if you don’t do anything. I just haven’t figured it out yet and I am not sure what rubric to use to figure it out.

It’s a weird feeling to be where I am in my life.