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The Musings of the Big Red Car's avatar

Haha, the post assassination "unity" theme -- they got that wrong, should have been "civility" -- didn't last for even a week.

Fine by me. While I don't advocate violence -- used to be in that racket and intimately familiar with it -- I do advocate a rough and tumble, "winner-take-all" contest.

Let ideas, policy, and performance wrestle.

Trump will pick Youngkin. Youngkin will deliver Virginia. Virginia will deliver the election and it will be a landslide taking the Senate and the House in grand fashion.

Then the hard work starts - governing and undoing all the stupid Biden stuff.

JLM

www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

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Tom Eckert's avatar

And then Winsome Sears is governor and we hold VA with an up and coming conservative!

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The Musings of the Big Red Car's avatar

I would vote for any former Marine named "Winsome" for any office. She would make a great governor.

JLM

www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

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John Fisher's avatar

As a resident of the Commonwealth I'm a fan of Youngkin, particularly after he showed some spine vetoing over 30 'gun control' laws served up by the very slim Democratic majority in our legislature. A RINO would have let some of them through in the spirit of 'compromise'. I think he'd be an excellent VP for Trump. And it is worth noting that Youngkin got no help from the national Republican party in his attempt to hold / turn the legislature last year.

That said, it isn't clear to me he can carry Virginia for Trump. Two reasons: first he only won the governors office here by less than 2% when all the polls had him up 8% - 10%. The difference is the level of fraud in Northern Virginia (have a look at the timing of results reporting from Fairfax County if you are curious). Second, Tim Kaine is up for reelection to the Senate here this year and Virginians (for reasons this transplant doesn't understand) worship the man. He was a wildly popular governor here and people love him, no matter how much he sticks with the national Democratic line these days. I believe that Kaine and some fraud will keep the Republicans from carrying VA even with Youngkin on the ticket.

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The Musings of the Big Red Car's avatar

I went to VMI in the early 1970s and follow Virginia politics closely. I had some Brother Rats in the legislature.I am ashamed to admit I supported Northam who was a fellow VMI grad.

While agreeing with every word you wrote and your analysis, the fundamental difference is this: Virginia has "off year" gubernatorial elections and in the last such election there were a total of 2.2MM votes cast whilst in the POTUS 2020 election, there were literally twice as many.

2021 Governor votes cast, approximately 2.2MM

2020 POTUS votes cast, approximatelyt 4.4MM

The Dems have a vastly superior GOTV apparatus in Virginia and the margin of victory for Biden was 500,000 +/-. Not inconsequential.

Virginia has not gone for a Republican since 2004 and it was the only Old Confederacy state to go for Clinton in 2016.

Still, in the current environment, the polls show it is eminently doable.

JLM

www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

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John Fisher's avatar

So you were at VMI while I was in the Corps of Cadets at Va Tech. We are both getting up there.

I still am not convinced that the national polling organizations account for the Kaine factor or the NVA fraud. We'll see.

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The Musings of the Big Red Car's avatar

I was '69 - '73 in civil engineering.

Va Tech is an excellent school.

JLM

www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

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John Fisher's avatar

BSEE 71 - 75. And VMI is an excellent school as well.

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Rascal Nick Of's avatar

Rand Paul

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

Love Rand. Might need him in the Senate to herd RINOs.

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Kurt Eckhardt's avatar

First, on a line by line basis, one of Jeff's best essays. Cripes, there were some plums, here.

Pre-assassination attempt, betting markets had Vance as the favorite. The logic being, PA, MI and WI are still tight and Vance has an appeal to blue collar Midwesterners. (western PA is sort of the eastern fringe of the Midwest-ask the Big Ten and Penn State) If VA were actually in play-it wouldn't actually be needed. (in other words, if DJT wins an upset in the Commonwealth, he's probably cruising everywhere else)

However, after Saturday night, Burgum has moved back ahead, I assume for the reasons Jeff mentioned. Trump's campaign is now less about state by state electoral appeal and more about executive laden, National Presence.

Trump can't worry about who'll be the 2028 GOP standard bearer, he needs to win in the fall. Like many, I'd like a sexier VP pick than Burgum, but with this election's unique focus-on both tickets-over who's a heartbeat away, I'm not sure that a first term Senator like Vance or even silver tongued Rubio (he'd simply embarrass Kamala in a debate) would fit the bill like Jeff's picks.

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jdm's avatar

I agree w/ you (and the other commenters thus far) on DeSantis or Youngkin. The former is a weak campaigner as evidenced by his first governor election and his results against Trump in the primaries. On the other hand, when he has results to which he can point, he does well (second governor's race). Ex-military and utterly reliable, I would expect he'd be given actual, real tasks to accomplish as a VP. Which would make his election in 2028 that much easier along with the fact that many or most "nice" Republicans like him.

I don't know much about Youngkin, but people whose opinions I trust (here and elsewheres) do recommend him, so I'm good with that too. On the other hand, maybe he's needed to shore up that somewhat fragile beachhead in VA.

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John Fisher's avatar

VA's goofy laws prevent a governor from succeeding himself, so Youngkin will be out as governor in 2025. However, he can run again after someone else has a term. As I said, goofy.

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Larry Schweikart's avatar

Everything I've read, esp. "The Truce," about the battle between the progs and "moderates" in the Rutabaga administration, say Obama is NOT "running the show." First it was a trio of Jayapal, Anita Dunn, and Ron Klain. After the debate, they were booted for two Jilly insiders. NEVER did the book mention any influence by Obama, nor is there an Obama insider within the Rutabaga camp. We need to drop this fiction and deal with the real threats.

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Keith Morton's avatar

At the risk of hurting your feelings "a blind squirrel has found an acorn". You are absolutely right about DeSantis or Youngkin. Both would be fantastic in '28

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Russ Hickman's avatar

Thanks for bringing Bill Ayers into the picture. I told friends and family in 2008 - and continue to tell them and others today - that Obama’s link to Ayers and Dohrn was a huge red flag on his candidacy. We are seeing that play out today as the Weather Underground’s vision for our destruction is realized. A second Trump Administration should seek to root out of the bureaucracies every Marxist civil servant that was installed during the Obama and Biden years.

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Mike Ness's avatar

The amount of unconstitutional unwind that needs to be done, 120 years of deciding those old fogies from the 1770's just didn't have a clue what they were talking about so lets go the opposite direction and run into the arms of socialism is not something that can be done in 4 years. However, with some systematic thought process, starting with the army of agencies that often produce little and often interfere with a lot would be where I would go immediately. Start with a 10 year plan of reducing headcount by 10% every year until the doors can be shut. I would however, put forth that the EPA might need to be on a 5 month timeline.

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Ataraxis's avatar

I’ll add the Dept. Of Education to that 5 month timeline. ALL SCHOOLS ARE LOCAL, so Federal oversight makes zero sense.

I always say, we don’t have a Federal Dept. Of Firehouses since they’re all local, so we also don’t need a Federal Dept. Of Schools.

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Mike Ness's avatar

Yes, totally forgot about that debt increasing waste of an agency.

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Tom Elia's avatar

I think you’ve nailed it. I think either DeSantis or Youngkin would be outstanding.

I heard a couple of people predict a surprise pick for veep last night on ‘Beyond the Beltway,’ the radio show out of Chicago hosted by Bruce DuMont:

Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Walker was a very effective governor and could be well-suited for helping to dismantle the politically-tainted/biased/corrupt federal bureaucracy.

Granted, Walker would be a long shot, but I think he fits with the preferred profile you have described.

I think it’s critical not to pick another establishment figure.

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Ataraxis's avatar

You are correct. An establishment figure would just be a fox in the henhouse. The establishment needs to be on the outside looking in. We need to use them to achieve OUR goals just liked they used us to achieve their goals. And by OUR goals, I mean the American restoration of our Constitution.

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

I respect the hell out of Walker, have a funny funny story about him. Not sure he is a fit here.

Here is the funny story:

Scott Walker and I were at a very small private bbq. 8 people. I mentioned to him my daughter met a guy from Wisconsin, and she moved to California to be with him before I could meet him. He chastized me for not meeting the guy in a humorous way. He then said if they get married in Wisconsin, he'd go to the wedding.

I laughed and said "Why don't you give them a call and ask?" I dialed his number and put the governor on the phone. I thought it was a strong power move to have the Guv talk to the boyfriend I hadn't met yet. Walker and my future son in law had an extended conversation.

We laugh about that one. He was a great sport and my daughter and the boyfriend got married, but in MN during Covid, not Wisconsin.

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Ed Kammeyer's avatar

I can only imagine the carnage that would come out of the SEC and the CFTC if they had the balls to put you in either.

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David A. Rosen's avatar

Really Like your thinking on VP picks. Youngkin or DeSantis make sense. Although I see DeSantis as a rising star, but fighter of the deep state... and could use 4 years as VP to learn from a master.

On another note, I was thinking, of How the Trump kids deserve to be so proud of how their Dad reacted, responded, and showed utter strength in raising his fist and letting everyone know he was good.

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Craig Pirrong's avatar

I agree that this is an especially important VP pick, and that Trump has to avoid the conventional considerations that focus on the current election, e.g., ideological and geographic balancing. The VP pick will have zero impact on this election.

This pick is about 2028 and beyond. Not 2024.

Trump needs to choose someone that has a realistic chance of building on what he can accomplish in the next four years. Someone who is a true MAGA heir--that is, someone totally different than Mike Pence. And someone with enough stones to stand up to the DC/media establishment and who will not be looking to win the strange new respect award.

A lesson in who not to choose.. Reagan selecting G. H. W. Bush.

I agree that an elected executive, not a senator, is preferable. Youngkin gives me a bit of a Romney vibe which makes me somewhat dubious about him. Which leaves DeSantis. He has definitely shown the willingness to mix it up and smackdown the media and the establishment while giving zero fucks about what they say about him.

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Craig Pirrong's avatar

LOL. I posted this and then clicked over to a news feed to see that Trump chose Vance.

I'm OK with that. I think there is ideological alignment, Vance is young, and he has also shown the ability to stand up to the slings and arrows of DC--including especially those launched by the Republican fossils in the Senate.

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

I will defer to Trump's instincts. They are better than mine. I would have picked Youngkin.

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Craig Pirrong's avatar

Although Vance is a senator, he is not one of these guys who has been there for years so he hasn't had time to develop Senatitis--a debilitating progressive disease.

Vance has also been a very outspoken supporter of Trump and taken a lot of flack for it. Youngkin has been far more equivocal. That matters a lot with Trump, especially after the Pence experience.

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BillD's avatar

Populism forever!

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

Define populism in your words

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BillD's avatar

More: Having the Teamsters president show up and praise 'Republican' opposition to national right to work.

Sacks would have been a good 1980s Soviet denialist with his Russian propaganda. That thankfully seemed to be rejected by a lot of the crowd.

"The contrast between Mike Pence’s outdated market fundamentalism and J.D.‘s conservative economics and dedication to American workers captures perfectly the GOP’s transformation over the past eight years,” said Oren Cass, chief economist at @AmerCompass https://www.semafor.com/article/07/15/2024/donald-trump-reveals-vice-president-nominee-rnc

We don't need 2 populist socialist parties.

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BillD's avatar

Praised Lina Kahn. Worked with E Warren on bank CEO regulation. Pro tariff. Isolationist. Makes Ted Cruz look principled.

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

What is your take on Miranda Devine's column?

https://nypost.com/2024/07/16/opinion/trump-invites-whole-nation-to-new-america-first-republican-party-at-rnc-2024/

Eight years ago, when Vance wrote the hit 2016 memoir Hillbilly Elegy documenting his hardscrabble life growing up in Rustbelt USA, he was seen as the key to understanding Trump’s appeal to a new working class base. A rabid Never-Trumper at the time, his remarkable road to Damascus conversion to MAGA hero, is the theme Trump is embracing this week.

The first night’s speakers embodied the invitation Trump is extending to prodigal sons and daughters across the country to join him in the new America First Republican Party he has forged. Democrats, independents, Never-Trumpers, all are welcome into his big hopeful tent.

With the former president watching on, Amber Rose, a former Trump-deranged Only Fan model took the stage and declared her new love for him.

“I believed the left wing propaganda that Donald Trump was racist. But after she “looked into all things Donald Trump” she said she realized “These are my people, this is where I belong… and I put the red hat on too.”

If it hadn’t been past Joe Biden’s bedtime, the night would have had the self-described “most pro-union president” gnashing his teeth.

In a stunning rebuke to President Biden, Sean O’Brien, President of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, gave the keynote address on behalf of his 1.3 million members.

“Something is wrong with this country and we need to say it out loud,” he said imploring his “ friends on the Democratic side to embrace collaboration… Working people know our system is broken… There is a political caste system… Inflation is hurting working Americans.

“This has got to change.”

He didn’t quite endorse Trump but his mere presence was an ominous message to the Democrats.

Who knows whether Trump’s open door approach will lure enough Democrats and undecideds in November to give him the landslide election he craves, but he’s giving it a red hot go.

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BillD's avatar

Not sure what to make of the modern Republican Party. As pointed out, there are a lot of strange bedfellows. Today that represents Trump's incoherence (and that is sometimes good). What will happen when he fades away and the people with more discipline like Vance take over? I found this article to be pretty good:

https://www.commentary.org/john-podhoretz/on-j-d-vance/

"He [Vance] has traveled since along a path that you can say is evolutionary—as in, he became less pessimistic and more determined to heal the “system” rather than throw up his hands in despair. Or you can say he saw a market opportunity and took it. Young and brilliant and wealthy and energetic, with genuine cultural provenance, he started to agree publicly with the citizens of Janesville that they had been screwed and that Washington and the elites were doing the screwing.

It is at this point he begins to embrace not the complexity of his own life story but a different kind of “familiar and easy”—which is to say, the advocacy of Donald Trump as the voice of the left-behind America. Having denounced Trump in 2016, he pronounced himself reformed by 2020. It was, we can now see, the most brilliant political play of his generation. "

As far a socialists and populists go, they are both based on grievance culture and conspiracy theories. Always someone else's fault. Big corporations, capitalists, Jews, bankers, white supremacy etc. Sad to see Republicans fall into the lack of agency mindset too.

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

I'd also ask, how are the Democrats at all populist today? They are socialist, which is anti-populist.

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

I think that is fair, but I disagree and do think Cruz is principled.

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Tom Eckert's avatar

Spot on Mr Carter!

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Melinda Romanoff's avatar

The list you’ve drawn up is nice, but plum full of conventional wisdom. Given that, I’d flatten my bell curve and move my odds way out because what once was within “standard deviation” no longer is “standard” at all.

And I’m not even willing to bet on this game, even as a former options desk jockey.

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Melinda Romanoff's avatar

Annnnd there’s the reason I’m not “In Politicks” with the Vance pick. However, if “hill people” run true to form, he’ll be more like Massie than not. And Vance is definitely “hill people”.

Jeff, not sure if you saw this post by Dan Proft this AM, but it caught this Northsider off guard::

https://x.com/danproft/status/1813020101068943419?s=46&t=JmAXKLElwziLBtT30UjQqg

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

Ha, saw that photo. Kind of shocked.

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Rascal Nick Of's avatar

General Mike Flynn.

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

Great guy. Not a VP guy

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BillD's avatar

Trump picks a right-side Bernie bro and Biden set to implement rent control. America has some really questionable options to choose from.

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

? Don't understand that comment. Biden wants rent control. You'd think as a CRE guy, Trump would knee jerk be against rent control

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