Was watching the state races last night in between pitches of the World Series. Congratulations to the Braves. We were pulling for them given what baseball commissioner Manfred did to the city of Atlanta over petty politics. Besides, he wasn’t even correct and just caved to the mob. I do feel bad for Dusty Baker though. He did a marvelous job taking over a tough situation in Houston and taking a talented lineup to the World Series.
That’s a sure sign of not being a good leader. Manfred has a big offseason negotiating a new contract between players and owners. There is plenty of money to go around, and plenty more out there if MLB looks at the world correctly. However, if past performance of how the league leadership frames a situation is any guide, baseball fans ought to be on pins and needles.
In the start-up world, one of the things I learned was that some people are great at starting companies and getting them to a certain place. They might not be the best people to take those companies to the next level. My friend Troy Henikoff once told me he loved to take companies from 0-100 employees but after that, it wasn’t as fun.
When I look at what happened in the political arena last night, I am hoping that Republicans and Democrats take the right lessons away from what happened.
Here is what I saw:
Democrats pushed a very hard left-wing socialist agenda nationwide. They went too far and the “market” for elections used the invisible hand to bring them inline.
Democrats pushed very strict Covid mandates and restrictions to freedom all over the country. They paid dearly at the polls in all kinds of races up and down the ballot in every state. If they would have followed the statistics and science on Covid, they wouldn’t be in that spot but central planners knew better.
Republicans didn’t exactly pivot away from Trump, but they weren’t “Trumpian” either.
I want to really hone in on point number three because I think the spin will try to take it in a different direction.
The biggest earthquake happened in Virginia. Why? First, Glenn Youngkin isn’t a political neophyte. The guy ran Carlyle Group and similar to Trump had to deal with all kinds of people in all kinds of businesses. He’s a business guy, not a politician or lawyer.
Youngkin also played a lot of hoop and one thing basketball does is teach you to adjust on the fly. It’s jazz, not scripted classical music.
What’s interesting about business people is when they say they are going to do something, they actually do it. They get it done. Why? Because they are used to competing and if they don’t satisfy their customer, they are gone. If they don’t lead their company in the right direction, they are out of a job.
One of Youngkin’s core campaign planks was school choice. One of Trump’s big issues was school choice. Youngkin served it up differently.
One of Trump’s big campaign sound bites was “Make America Great Again” which meant investing in American people. Youngkin campaigned and said, “We will change the trajectory of this Commonwealth.”
Movements often need a bull in a china shop to shake things up. Trump was that bull in the china shop. He got all kinds of nefarious people to voluntarily expose themselves. News organizations. Political candidates and parties. The bureaucracy. Other countries. He unveiled all of it and you could choose to look and see if you wanted but it wasn’t pretty.
Not to get religious, but before there was Jesus Christ, John the Baptist swept through the land.
The simple fact is Trump is getting up in age. He is 75, but would be 78 in 2024, 82 when he hit the end of that term. We already make fun of “poopy pants” and “doddering” Joe. It’s clear that Biden has lost more than a step. He is unable to function at the high level the Presidency demands.
Trump was clearly capable when he was in office. Just look at how he took off the cuff impromptu questions from the press all the time and compare it to Joe Biden’s heavily scripted and lowly rated special with Anderson Cooper. Trump took the questions and answered them competently, without stuttering, and using a confident voice not a halting one. Hate Trump? Watch a press conference with Obama. Obama wasn’t as smooth as Trump off the cuff, but he was light years ahead of Biden. It’s night and day.
Trump’s age alone makes it tougher. But, given how polarizing Trump is, the best thing he might do is play kingmaker. Go out in front and take the flak. Trump is incredibly smart. I met a close friend of his once. He had known Trump for 40 years. He said that Trump was super smart, but even super smart people slow down as they get to older ages.
Sometimes the hardest thing for leaders to do is have the self-awareness to do things they wouldn’t normally do. Their egos or past patterns get in the way.
When we were transforming the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the intellectual drive, the heart, and soul of the movement was Bill Sheperd. You might have never heard of him. Why? Because Bill never wanted to be the public frontman. We wanted him to be that guy but he wasn’t comfortable with it. However, he had a lot of power and used it to lead. Trump can do similar if he sees that path.
Our movement at CME was so strong, the opposition cut the legs off the public front man, Joel Stender, and vilified him. We still won the day because what we were proposing made a ton of sense.
In the battle of ideas between Republicans and Democrats, Republicans have clearly aligned themselves with individual liberty and freedom from overarching government. They have broken their cozy relationship with Big Corporations. Throughout human history, individual liberty always beats the alternative in the end.
Right now, it looks like Republicans could take back both houses of Congress. Democrats and Establishment Republicans will pattern match and say “it always happens that way”. However, the underlying reasons for the change in control are far different than in the past.
If Republicans were to take both houses in 2022, the worst thing they could do is even utter the word impeachment. Instead, offer up solutions and let the President veto them.
The Republicans have a great bench for 2024 and all of them are younger with great executive experience. They still have issues with wealthy Establishment Republicans (Bush, Romney). They probably won’t get them back but they don’t need them.
The Republican Party now is super inclusive, with all races, women and men, and it’s a lot more working-class, favoring small business people and independent contractors. It won’t be long before hourly workers turn Republican. They want hope, not more federal programs.
I like those people better. They get shit done.
Great stuff as usual.
Pres Trump did, in fact, play the appropriate role for an off year election -- KINGMAKER.
Trump elevated Youngkin from the primary mosh pit by means of his endorsement. That was decisive.
Youngkin had zero name ID until Trump said, "Glenn Youngkin is the guy. Trust me."
Youngkin got a lot of help from Biden, Obama, Harris, and McAuliffe -- they dragged the national incompetence into the election booth, to their detriment.
The big GOP lesson? Draft GREAT candidates. This guy was made for TV, smart as a whip, beautiful family, knew the kitchen table issues, worked like a rented mule, and had a very nice believable delivery without being nasty.
He didn't got the top job at Carlyle by accident.
You say that the Republicans have a deep bench, but once past Pompeo and DeSantis, who? Nikki Haley, OK. Cotton? All of them are green bananas, but there is time. Who?
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
I agree with you on the vast majority of stuff here. Unsurprisingly, the thing I'll continue to disagree with you on is Trump and how he handed 2020 and its aftermath. I think Youngkin won because he didn't dwell on that. He focused on the issues that matter - education and the economy. Republicans that do that will win back suburban moms and continue to chip away at diverse middle-class voters turned off by Democratic economic and cultural policies. Just check out this, if you want to see how the GOP is different from what is portrayed in the media: https://twitter.com/tpostmillennial/status/1455763959794053129?s=21
Also worth noting, the PA statewide races (all GOP sweep) and NJ gov race (GOP making up almost a 16 point gap from 2020) are almost greater warning signs for the Dems than VA.