Don’t Be Fooled
All Time Highs Aren't What They Seem to Be
The mainstream media is going to start blaring all kinds of statistics intended to influence the low-information voter.
Here is what they will say. The Biden stock market is doing great. It’s at all-time highs!
We don’t care about all-time highs. They are nice to cite for soundbites, but meaningless when looking at the underlying.
We care about the rate of change, or what statisticians and economists will call the “delta” along with “velocity”. How much did it change, and how fast did it change? The margin is what is important and where you can draw insight.
Comparing Biden and Trump is hard because the statistics they throw at you are so muddled. However, there are some hard statistics we can cite to objectively assess what was and is going on.
The stock market is one proxy for where the overall economy is at. There are others and both Presidents, along with Obama, took credit for a rising stock market. They had very little to do with it, but their policies could open doors or close them. Sean Hannity likes to say “92% of Americans aren’t in the stock market and are unaffected.” I think it’s because commentators don’t understand the stock market.
The S+P 500 ($SPY) is the best indicator of the broader market, these numbers would be similar if one used the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ). In my analysis, I break out 2019 and 2020. Since 2020 was the Covid year it is incredibly skewed in all kinds of ways. But, to show respect for the numbers, I show both and calculate Joe Biden’s baseline off the 2020 year since in all respects the data I cite gives President Biden a leg up so any detractors of my analysis know I gave the sitting President the benefit of the doubt. He assumed office in 2021, so it’s not fair to measure him using 2019 numbers.
Let’s look at the stock market.
In December of 2016, the S+P 500 was at 2249. Trump took office in January of 2017.
In December of 2019, two months before the Covid shutdown, the stock market was at 3221.29, a 43.23% increase.
For perspective, on February 19, 2020, when the worldwide governments forced economic shutdowns the S+P 500 was at 3386.11 up 50.56%. Then the Covid crash happened.
By December 31, 2020, the S+P 500 was up 66% at 3733.27
That’s a 50% increase under Trump before Covid. Post Covid, it’s a 66% increase during Trump’s term.
The S+P 500 was 3733.27 on December 31, 2020, and Biden assumed office in January 2021. On January 29, 2024, the S+P 500 closed at 4892.95.
That’s a 31.06% increase under Biden. Even if the stock market is up by December 31, 2024, it’s probably not going to increase by another 35%.
The Biden administration has gone on the air saying that they have been pumping out records. “It’s at all-time highs”, they will say. Again, it’s a perverse usage of statistics.
Biden will tell you he is “pro-energy”. Let’s look at the statistics on natural gas and crude oil, the two major energy sources we use in the United States to heat and electrify homes and move stuff around the country.
Natural gas is a clean burning fossil fuel that doesn’t contribute to global warming. Fracking and other innovation has helped the US find and produce more of it. Remember, Biden signed executive orders banning new exploration for fossil fuels on Day 1 of his administration. That set the tone. Trump was the opposite.
Natural gas production in 2015 was 74.1 million cubic feet.
Natural gas production in 2019 was 93.1 million cubic feet. Up 25.64%
Natural gas production in the Covid year of 2020 was 90.77 million cubic feet. Up 22.49%
Natural gas production under Trump increased by 22.49%.
Biden took over. He signed the aforementioned executive orders and his stated regulatory mission was to put fossil fuels out of business.
Natural gas production in 2020 was 90.77 million cubic feet
Natural gas production in 2023 was 102.2 million cubic feet Up 12.59%.
Production grew more slowly in 2023 than in 2022. Gee, I wonder why that could be.
Here is a way to observe the differences graphically. Notice the drop off since Biden took over and the difference in the slope of the graph line. Trump’s production was better than Biden’s. It’s not close.
Crude oil shows similar statistics.
In 2016, the US produced 8.9 million barrels. This was below the 2015 level. Obama’s war on oil was working.
In 2019, the US produced 12.23 million barrels of crude oil Up 37.41%
In 2020, the US produced 11.3 million barrels of crude oil. Up 26.96%
Biden took over.
In 2020, the US produced 11.3 million barrels of crude oil
In 2023, the US produced 12.9 million barrels of crude oil Up 14.16%
Again, the rate of increase in production under Trump crushes anything Biden did. If you get technical and try and adjust for inflation, the numbers favor Trump quite a bit more.
Here is another funny thing. The abortion debate the Democrats want to run on shows similar kinds of statistics. Democrats and the Mainstream Media will tell you that there is not as much access to abortion after the Supreme Court remanded the issue to the states. However, that’s just not the case.
Pre-Roe v Wade repeal; 75,000 abortions per month nationwide
Post-Roe v Wade repeal; 87,000 abortions per month nationwide. Up 16% monthly.
Trump beats Biden in virtually every economic category that matters to the average American. It’s not even close. Even if you hate Trump, you shouldn’t stay home and enable mediocrity and failure. Voting for a third party is silly too since that never works out. Perot put Clinton over the top in 1992 and left us with Hillary.
There is idealism, and then there is realism.
Jeff, you are absolutely correct on all fronts. However, the society, culture in America has been infected with a form of humanism that has taken things like facts, statistics, data and realized outcomes from all of this and thrown it out the window. I can't tell you how many times in my time living in NYC and working in the greater Wall Street world I would go out after work, get into conversations regarding all things economic and political and I would bring facts to the table and those who I would be speaking with would simply retort, "I just don't feel any of what you have said is correct." Notice their justification for disagreeing with me, "I don't FEEL", this is where we are and what has become the true divide. Those who like to take in things, digest it, then look into the facts surrounding something, as best they can be ascertained in a western Media world that has been left to very hard left now for 80 plus years, then pass judgement on something. The other side simply takes in the emotionally centered and very purposeful subjects the MSM puts forth and they buy what they are selling hook line and sinker because it comports with their emotionally centered approach to life. They also, in places like NYC, San Fran, Chicago, Seattle, etc live in an echo chambers filled with other emotionally centered pseudo intellectuals. Throw in a truly well read, fact based individual and all Haites breaks loose.
Need to also adjust S&P price changes for inflation over the period.