Hypothesis For The Future

Corporations Are Going to Suck

I have been thinking about this for some time.

Given DEI, CRT, ESG, and all the bullshit that has rained down on white males over the last decade or more, I think we are going to see some real changes in business. When you read “white male” in this post, add in Asians. They have felt the brunt of similar discrimination. You might also add in Indians, except in some cases they have worked the system.

When you are constantly told “you suck”, you leave the system that tells you that you suck.

It’s not that people other than white males can’t do the stuff that I am going to write about, it’s that the stifling corporate environment is going to make it so they either have incentives not to or social/corporate/peer pressure not to.

Before you call me a racist, read my thesis. Scott Adams has observed the same thing.

Today, it’s tough to be a white male in a corporate role. You get passed over for promotion by any other class. We are so segmented that we have subsets of victim classes now. I know younger guys inside companies and they have told me this. I know older guys inside companies and they have told me this.

63% of people entering college are female. It’s almost the reverse of pre-women’s lib. The Feminazi’s must be rejoicing.

But, the future innovation isn’t going to be corporate. It’s going to be independent. You don’t need to go to college to learn to code. You can learn to hack. At the same time, the school choice movement sweeping the country will unleash massive dividends in 20 years. The white males won’t be in public schools. They will be independently and privately educated.

Only the suckers will be in private schools. They will go to Harvard and then get hired by some multinational corporation in an official-sounding job.

The innovators will be on the fringes building cool shit that compete with corporations and take market share from them. The big ones will survive either because of scale, brand, or some other reason like regulatory capture. Tesla has shown you can play the game and beat the old stodgy ones at their own game.

With AI, and other potential computing developments like quantum computing, small teams are going to build stuff that will topple the big boys. They will build it fast and deliver. They will get shit done.

They also won’t need as much money to get stuff going. The Venture Capital Industrial Complex will change with the time as fast as it needs to in order to fund these companies as it seeks a return on investment.

I think one thing crypto will do is break down a lot of friction in funding as well. It’s obviously not there yet, but it will be. The future revolution will be funded differently than the past one. It’s going to be capitalistic.

Corporations hire more bodies to solve problems. They hire consultants. They are so afraid of the legal system they move sclerotically and quadruple-check. They don’t get shit done. They look to the government to help them with regulatory capture, tariffs, and other things that take a long time.

Corporations engage in crony capitalism, and it’s slow.

The best companies in the future will be awesome at seeking out innovation, buying it, and integrating it into their operations. Cisco built an entire strategy around this. They buy innovation.

There are people that are not wired to code. They need to learn to sell. Stuff doesn’t sell itself. If you can sell, you always will have a job.

The gap between doers and non-doers is going to widen. The jamokes in government will create more programs to try and bridge the gap but they won’t work. They won’t work any more than reparations will work. They won’t work any more than raising the minimum wage works.

Teach your kids to problem solve and to be industrious. Someone needs their lawn mowed, their leaves raked, or their snow shoveled. Make sure they learn math well.

DEI has crushed traditionally great schools. They will still hang around but their prestige is permanently damaged. When I see a Stanford or a Harvard grad I see a silver spoon kid that hasn’t had to work for it. They will come into your company and demand to be special.

There will be a few centralized places where the doers get together and commiserate. I remember a friend of mine who grew up near LA telling me this. I asked him why he stayed up in Silicon Valley and didn’t go back home when he exited his company. He said, “People up here are doers. People in LA aren’t.”

LA creatives will leave. You can’t be creative anymore there just producing Marvel after Marvel feature. Besides, no one can afford the heavy weight of government there. The middle class is disappearing. It’s rich people and poor people that the rich people are wealthy enough to pay for without noticing much.

Las Vegas is slowly stealing a lot of the entertainment industry from other places. It’s going to grow. When Mark Wahlberg builds the soundstages it will move faster. Hotels are still going up and more and more stars are recognizing that residencies are a great way to perform.

I don’t know where the doers will congregate, but three cities I’d pick are Silicon Valley, New York, and Dallas. The first two because traditionally, that’s where shit happens. But, Dallas is my pick as the next city to rise. It will replace Chicago, Boston, and cities like that. Those cities are toast. Their political leadership today will crush them. They won’t be able to move fast enough to avoid what’s coming. Austin won’t be the place to go either. It’s a college/government town. Too many lackeys and yes people. Dallas has a great airport, plenty of money, and is central so you can get anywhere easily. The tax/regulatory environment is good. There is culture there. Dallas also has proximity to a lot of very good colleges and universities. The Big 12 and SEC feed it.

It’s almost obvious what’s going to happen.

(Added)

I was quizzed offline what is the most obvious.

The obvious thing is the most talented people will not work for big corporations no matter what their gender, race blah blah blah is. They are going to work for merit, compete, and create with others like them who want to be that way.

Instead of running down the straight predictable corporate path stuck in meetings all day, they will free themselves and create value. Some of these companies will topple existing corporates. ATT, GM, and GE used to dominate. Not anymore. They aren’t even respected leaders of the pack.