Winston Churchill loved pigs. Paraphrasing what he said about them goes something like this. Pigs are intelligent animals and tasty too. When you are looking at each other through the fence, each of you is thinking about how the other would taste.
This stock market is a pig. Right now, it’s eating you.
This morning’s inflation numbers came out. Unexpectedly, they were higher than expected. The word “unexpectedly” gets used a lot during Democratic administrations.
Markets are down strongly right now as I type this. My TA friends (and that stands for “technical analysis” you degenerates) say the market is on some support line. In times like this, I think you can use charts to make some small trades to scalp back and forth and make a few pennies, but in the larger theme of things it is picking up dimes in front of a steamroller.
I wrote some reasons why here.
Yesterday, I found it laughable when the press secretary of the United States President said, “President Obama”, instead of “President Biden”. Obama ran a terrifically terrible economy when you run the numbers and add in the opportunity costs. He underperformed by a lot and all it took was Trump to get elected to show you the difference. I guess we know who is really in charge and it’s not the guy wearing Depends.
We are enduring Obama’s third term and the first two sucked.
Here is a year-to-date chart on the S+P SPY 0.00%↑ from Trading View. By the way, the guys that started the company are from Ukraine so using them gives a Ukrainian ancillary support.
You can see why the TA people are in a lather. If you look back to earlier this year in January, the market is running into all kinds of “support”.
My prediction in December was that the stock market would be up in the year 2023. Only 9% of the time does the US have two successive bear market years in a row but when it does the second is worse than the first. However, that doesn’t mean it won’t go negative for the year at some point and I think we are headed in that direction.
My old point was 320 in the SPY 0.00%↑ before you could buy it. That seems a little far away now but you never know. I wouldn't buy it with your money right now.
WE ARE IN A RECESSION. I consistently read in mainstream business publications that we aren’t. However, we are and the only reason the mainstream business publications aren’t saying so is the Obama (Biden) Administration is controlling the narrative. People like Janet Yellen are credentialed and use big soothing words, but they aren’t smart. For what it’s worth, I read that recession is just around the corner in both left and right-wing business publications.
Given the course we are on, I think the recession deepens. The people in charge at the White House, in the entire unelected bureaucracy, and in the Senate, along with many US Reps on both sides of the aisle don’t really understand how to correct course and get us out. Not only that, they frame the issues so differently in their world view there is no way to reconcile them. There is no compromise.
A grand compromise might be worse in some cases.
The war in Ukraine will only get worse. When do you think US advisors enter the conflict? China is only going to get bolder. Inflation isn’t going to stop. Government spending isn’t going to be curbed despite having a Republican Congress because there aren’t enough Republicans that understand economics enough to see why it should be curbed.
They see their job in Washington as “fighting to bring home money” to their constituents. It’s been that way for over a century and it’s not changing. Post Covid, other countries in the world have similar debt issues.
That’s the only point right now that lends credence to the crypto fanboy’s argument. Sovereign debt defaults worldwide would cause crypto to have merit. It’s hard to speculate on what would cause that to happen but a world war would be one of them.
I don’t necessarily believe all this chatter about an upcoming world war. I think it is totally possible to avoid it but there are people that want it. Some want war for financial reasons to line their pockets. Others want it to distract from all the socialism bullshit they are doing behind the scenes. Others want it just to stay on the power trip they are on.
I don’t see a tangible good reason to start one. This is not 1939.
Haha, "credentialed?"
Janet Yellen is a moron. When inflation on Day One of the Biden Circus was 1.4%, she took credit for it.
In Week One of the Eve of Destruction when Joe eviscerated energy and declared a "Special Military Operation" against energy, she said it would all be fine.
When inflation -- talking to you crude oil and gas prices -- took off, she said, "It's 'transitory,' babe. Believe me, I have a bloody PhD."
When the whole country was nose deep on their tippy toes in inflation, Madame Credentials said, "Well, this might not be transitory, but it recedes by the end of 2022 and the party is on. Trust me, I have credentials."
Inflation took a long weekend in Nantucket and has come home pissed -- it rained all weekend -- and ready to ruuuuuuuuuumble.
This is going to be very dicey and anybody who thinks a 0.1% here or there means anything is going to have a broken heart.
We are in a bloody recession and it gets worse before it gets better.
Don't believe me. Go with the tart with the credentials -- whatever she mumbles, go long the dark side of that mirror.
"Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the most credentialed of us all?"
"You are, toots. Still wrong on everything, but you got the sheepskins, babe."
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Relative to war- I feel like I am in the US in 1940 or the UK in 1935. People who paid attention knew a war was coming but weren't sure exactly when or how. Most of the country was oblivious or felt immune to the danger. China has a window that is open till the next administration in 2024 unless they can get Biden elected again. As much as our elite like the fact that they are bleeding Russia, the Chinese like it more that Russia is also bleeding us. My only question is whether the Chinese just try to take Taiwan or do they feel they can take us off the board with one major nuclear strike. I think the second scenario is unlikely but possible.