Recency Bias
Victim All the Time
When people examine things, they often aren’t as critical as they should be. Or, the opposite is true. They are overtly critical, and they talk themselves into a corner.
You see that A LOT with hot takes in sports. Listen to a sports show over time, and the same host will have a 180 degree opinion on the same topic over time as information changes.
The same is true in politics. Currently, I am hearing it is going to be a bloodbath for Republicans in the midterms. Maybe those opinions are correct. It’s not beyond the pale. Traditionally, Presidents lose in midterms. Trump has done a fantastic job on some things. The border, for example. Gas prices. Significantly lower. GDP is good, and inflation has come down.
Trump has made some blunders, and in our media environment, those blunders get put in a megaphone. Hence, it looks like he is doing worse than he is. In addition, people process negative information in different ways than they process positive information.
Here is an alternative view. We are stuck in 2025. On January 1st tax cuts happen. We have seen billions cut out of the federal budget with DOGE and employees leaving. Businesses have invested a lot in 2025, and some of that investment will come online in 2026.
If that happens, the entire narrative will change. What happens in November then?
The problem with the tax cuts is that most blue states are maintaining taxation of tips and overtime by decoupling those Federal provisions from state taxable revenue. They claim it's to protect state tax revenue, but it's really to hide any positive Trump tax cuts from their voters. In fact, 4 blue states/districts (NY, Maine, Illinois and DC) are considering increasing state tax rates on tips and overtime, thereby seizing the Federal tax savings for themselves and completely neutering any Trump tax cut benefits to their voters.
The question is - are these voters alert enough to the fact that they are getting hosed by their own state elected officials or will they simply vote "D" because of the steady diet of OrangeManBad.
The Left is in constant drama mode and amplifying ANY issue that they can manipulate to sway opinion. Weak people listen to that. The rest of us look at numbers.
For ex—GDP in US will be 3%, vs -.2% for Germany, 1.1% France, .4% UK, .75% Italy. Want to live there. y’all?
Incomes up, inflation down. We have work to do on messaging which hopefully will be top of mind in 2026.
News today that there was NO probable cause for the FBI raid of Mar a Lago, but Biden ordered them to do it anyway. Let’s see, cocaine in the White House, Biden calling a “lid” at 4PM, corruption enabled not just for Hunter but for Ukraine, 10-20MM illegal immigrants let into an open border (many of whom are now scamming us for welfare, food stamps, housing subsidies) etc. The $1B+ in Minn is just the tip of the iceberg. Note that in Trump’s first year U.S. born workers are being employed (iirc 1.5MM+).
Don’t buy the lies of the legacy media, which has proven itself to peddle lies (Russia gate, Biden is “sharp as a tack”, the “Inflation Reduction Act” will reduce inflation, Climate scams, DEI, ad nauseum).