Some friends I respect from the old trading floor at saying it is finally time to sell stocks. It’s random. These guys don’t talk to each other. But, all of them are bearish.
A few use charts. Others use intuition.
I have been bearish for a bit, but I am not the type to pick tops and bottoms. I wrote this in February. If you sold then, you missed a nice run in the market.
I am a huge fan of indexing. Not everyone can follow the market every second of every day. Indexing allows the general public to build wealth in the cheapest manner ever. Eugene Fama was correct, and thank goodness Vanguard became a business. I index myself. I don’t own many single stocks but I own index funds. I don’t have time to do the research on an individual stock and follow it.
There are certainly reasons to be bearish. I can tick them off as easy as anyone else. I do think that a malaise has set over the US with the proposals and actions of the Biden administration. But, I am a conservative so it is not likely I would agree with anything that they propose.
However, I am mindful that it is really hard to fight the Federal Reserve. I don’t know how Federal Reserve employees, Congresspeople, and their staff are positioned yet. The Fed said they will taper, which will pull money out of the system eventually. That makes money “tougher” but even at these interest rates, money isn’t that tough.
Traders are selling. If you decide to sell, you need to be mindful of one simple fact. Dennis Gartman was just on television saying he would sell the market.
If you are in the trading industry, you will get a chuckle out of that.