edited to reflect the fact Pelosi didn’t buy a huge Florida mansion as first reported in the media.
The Friday after Thanksgiving is traditionally a very slow day in the market. Very few people are at their posts. Skeleton crews outfit trading desks.
Friday of course, the new variant of Covid hit the news wires and we saw a huge drop in the market.
Today, it looks like the new Covid variant, “Omicron”, isn’t that serious.” Markets look like they will scream higher on Sunday night into Monday. Of course, the market was already pretty frothy anyway.
If you are a person like me that uses indexes to build wealth, you were able to ignore all that and shop Black Friday sales. If you are an active trader, you probably sold out of a lot of stuff on Friday while the market was tanking and illiquid. Sunday night, you are actively looking at charts and trying to figure out how to buy it all back.
When you are trying to build wealth, slow and steady wins the race.
Energy markets took a big tumble. The administration will point to it and say their release of the Strategic Oil Reserve was the cause. But, smart people and objective people will know that their actions had no effect on the oil market. Covid did though.
Markets digest new information quickly. The end result is reflected in a transparent price. Covid’s new variant had the potential to do a lot of damage to already broken supply chains, travel and there are threats of lockdowns. Hence the action of Friday’s market was just simply a reaction.
The cynical questions I have are this; Who needs Covid fear? Who benefits from it?
For sure, drug companies that make vaccines. All over the Sunday news was “get vaccinated get vaccinated get vaccinated”. Of course, the people that aren’t vaccinated aren’t going to rush out and get vaccinated with the new variant. They are smart enough to know that viruses mutate all the time. What’s clear is that vaccinations and lockdowns and all the totalitarian policies being pushed by governments all over the earth aren’t working. Governments who loaded up on vaccines from the drug companies are left holding the bag.
The data shows that vaccines do not stop you from getting Covid. The best cure for Covid is to get it, recover like 99.98% of people, and get on with your life. The other best cure is to organize your life not to get Covid if you are in a vulnerable group.
Let the rest of us get on with our lives.
Politicians benefit. Especially Democratic ones. They are going to make a case to pass Biden’s gross and unnecessary spending plan. Objective people will know that more government spending in an environment where we are already experiencing inflation is dumb. Not just dumb, but really really dumb. The Build Back Better bill is just a giveaway to public and private sector unions. It forms pools of cash that politicians will use to feed and form patronage armies.
The Democrats thought they would win the Virginia elections like Sherman conquered Georgia but they were surprised. Instead of learning, they are doubling down. Their polling nationwide is pitiful. Retirements are mounting. Heck, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi just bought a huge mansion in the free capitalistic state of Florida. If that doesn’t smack of, “do what I say, not what I do”, I don’t know what does. Is there a better poster child for the dysfunction of politicians than Pelosi?
Bureaucrats benefit. People like Fauci get to feel self-important and be on television a lot. They get a soapbox to lecture us. Fauci is an utter disaster and should be retired. He reminds me of Wesley Mouch in Ayn Rand’s book “Atlas Shrugged”.
The cynic inside me says those three groups need to find a way to get control of the narrative again. They need to fan the flames of fear to get control.
Don’t let them. I get inspiration from Aaron Ginn’s tweets on Twitter. People all over the world are marching in the streets against Covid restrictions.
It’s time to fight.
I enjoy your writing and being a financial services professional in Chicago, where I grew up, I can closely relate to much of what you write.
It is in that spirit that I would urge you to double-check the Pelosi news. The agent selling the home denies it is Pelosi that purchased it and Pelosi’s chief of staff came out and insisted Pelosi and her husband made no such purchase.
Of course, this could all be smoke and mirrors and I wouldn’t put it past them to think that people might be fooled by a purchase in an LLC or some sort of family trust but the denials are pretty emphatic.
Bought Mercado Libre (MELI) at about 1260 on Friday. It was at 1697 less than a month ago.
re the vaccines, it is important to distinguish between protection against *cases* (ie, getting the Covid) and protection against *severe symptoms* (hospitalization and death). The vaccines are not as effective as one might hope against the first, but they are pretty effective against the second. Since Covid seriousness is so age-dependent, and vaccine uptake has also been age dependent, it's necessary to stratify the data by age to study the true effectiveness.