What do you think voter turnout will be in the city of Chicago tomorrow? That will determine the mayoral election. It’s supposed to be 46 and sunny The Chicago Democratic Machine doesn’t want a big turnout, so that’s why they schedule the mayoral and aldermanic elections in February. November has better weather in Chicago. Smaller turnout and all the other games the Machine plays allow it to pick winners and losers before a ballot is cast.
However, this year is different.
The way Chicago elects mayors could bite the Machine in the butt. John Kass generally comments actively on the Chicago elections. However, Mr. Kass had an untimely health crisis that he’s recovering from. He has no time to do it. Perhaps it is the Lord’s blessing that John can’t. What might happen will be the work of Beelzebub.
Chicago politics for a free market person are complex, to say the least. You start off knowing that there isn’t one person in the race that believes anything remotely that you believe despite reams of data and rigorous intellectual logic proving that your belief is correct.
That leaves you with Solomon’s choice. In the past, pro-business and free-market people endorsed the Daley’s. Both of them. The Daley’s were corrupt but they let the capitalists do their thing because they knew full well that without them they couldn’t engage in their corruption and hold power. In many cases, the relationships became so cozy that the free market degenerated into crony capitalism.
That’s where things started to corrode.
At the same time, Chicago was the epicenter for socialistic and communist thought in the United States. Historically it was because it was central when it came to transportation. It was easy for the NY commie to meet the California commie in Chicago.
After the 1960s, Bill Ayers was lovingly ensconced in the Chicago intellectual community and he was able to mentor legions of people, one of who became President of the United States. Ayers knew Obama so well, he babysat the kids.
Layering on another facet of humanity, you have to delve into Professor Ron Burt’s research at Chicago Booth. Burt has looked extensively at how networks work inside companies. Those findings can be extrapolated to larger societies.
Before the Democratic Machine of the Daley’s, there was a Republican Machine that was just as corrupt. Chicago is a study in political corruption going back to its founding. What Burt has found in his research is that when there is a strong network with a single leader that gets dismembered, it will be chaotic for a while but it generally reorganizes under a single powerful leader network again. Often, that leader has more power than the prior one.
A small example is Apple ($AAPL). Steve Jobs was the founder and the only person you ever read about at Apple. He was replaced in a board coup by an outsider. That outsider did terribly. Jobs came back from exile and Apple became a power. Jobs died, but succession put the current CEO Tim Cook in charge. You still never hear about any other employees at Apple. Cook is the be all end all.
Another example might be Russia. Lenin murdered the monarchy and took control leading to Stalin, Kruschev, Brezhnev, Gorbachev, and then chaos. Yeltsin ruled over chaos and Putin took control putting in place a different network but one similar to the prior one.
What outsiders don’t understand about Chicago is this. Right now, it’s in a period of chaos between networks. How could the citizens elect someone so poor as Mayor Lightfoot?
Chicago had the Republicans Big Bill Thompson, then the Daley’s, leading to Rahm Emanuel. There was chaos between the Daley administrations, but it’s arguable the second Daley had more power and was more corrupt than the first. Emanuel made a bad decision with the Laquon Jackson tape and the socialists seized the opportunity. I don’t think the Daley’s would have let that happen.
The void from Emmanuel opened holes in the Machine. Because of its corrosive corruption, leaders like Michael Madigan were under the gun from the Feds. Lightfoot promised to take on the Democratic Machine and the right center free market capitalists that were still citizens of Chicago voted for her because they wanted the jackboot of city government off their necks. The corrupt second Mayor Daley put it squarely on them and Emanuel didn’t let it off. He made it worse.
Not only that, the Illinois State government and Cook County government were joining them in the squeeze. Lightfoot said she would be the antidote to all that.
It’s not just the corruption and high taxes that dissuade progress in Illinois and Chicago. It’s the fact that you are almost guaranteed to fail before you start. Established businesses are either in the crony capitalism game, or they were able to get above the fray. Small businesses have to figure out how to work with the “man”.
Evidence of all of this is the continuing river of businesses leaving the state of Illinois and the river of residents packing up and leaving. I was one of them.
Tomorrow’s election will be telling. Why? Because the Teacher’s Union is backing one candidate, Brandon Johnson. Follow the money. The SEIU has given Johnson $500,000. The Chicago Teacher’s Union exemplifies the center of socialist/communist thought in the United States. It is ground zero. It puts it into action. The union doesn’t care about teaching children, it cares about brazen power. It doesn’t care what the dregs look like that it destroys in its wake as long as it has the power to rule over those dregs. This is a microcosm of the vision people like Barack Obama have for the United States.
Johnson is a full-throated communist. Remember, Chicago City Council has several socialist/communist members and the tax assessor is a socialist. This isn’t shocking.
If you assess the other candidates in the race, Congressman Chuy Garcia is a socialist, but has the support of Toni Preckwinkle. Preckwinkle is the defacto head of the old but weakened Democratic Machine now. Mayor Lightfoot is clearly incapable of governing and the mayor’s job is way above her pay grade. Businessman Willie Wilson is an accomplished guy but if he was elected, he’d also be unable to govern given the way the city is structured. He keeps running for things but has no chance. Jamal Green is not qualified. Sophia King is running as a resume builder. Same with Kam Buckner. That leaves Paul Vallas.
Vallas is the only one that can take on the socialists and the CTU. But, if it’s a two-person race between Johnson and Vallas, Vallas will lose. My friend Dan Proft has been touting Wilson, and I empathize with him but it’s shooting a bullet in the ocean.
I think outsiders will be surprised at the vote totals of Lightfoot. Incumbency has its benefits. It would not surprise me to see Lightfoot and Johnson in the final two.
That takes us back to the original question. What’s voter turnout going to be? Typically, turnout is anemic, 35% to 45% of eligible voters only show up. My guess is that with mail-in balloting, the ballot harvesting which will go on favors the Chicago Teacher’s Union. They also have the best ground game.
It’s possible with mail-in ballot harvesting that Johnson wins on the first ballot if CTU does its job.
What I will tell Chicago residents is that there are other places to live. If Johnson gets elected, expect a socialist wave. That will drive big business out of Chicago, and the state of Illinois. His tax plans will drive the nail into the coffin of the city. The Governor of Illinois doesn’t have the cojones to stand up to an African-American socialist mayor. When the mayor plays the race card, the governor will agree and shrink which is a hard thing for him to do. His ego is bigger than his waistline.
Sure, Chicago has a lot of great things about it. But, you can only paint over rotten wood for so long before it disintegrates. I will tell you this, don’t believe the statistics about how diverse the Chicago economy is. The biggest driver of the economy in Chicago by far is finance, specifically the exchanges and the surrounding networks and infrastructure they bring to the city. Lose finance, you lose the city.
Chicago will always have Big Law because there is a Federal court there. But, lawyers don’t have to live there to practice in that courthouse. Accounting firms can move away and so can consultants. Intellectual jobs can move. Educational institutions cannot and neither can other businesses. But, dry cleaners and restaurants and tradespeople can close and move. Chicago will be left with warehouses and government jobs.
As a person who moved I can tell you that you miss a lot of things but there are other benefits. The city will never go back to the way it used to be until it gets ground to a pulp. Only then will it rise from ashes again. Except rising from conflagrations unintendedly started by a cow are much easier than rising from socialism.
Vallas was school superintendent here in Philly before Chicago. My memory is that he came as a reformer with great intentions but got ground down by racial politics and our swamp. He was replaced by a photogenic black guy who hasn't done much either. Vallas is not your savior. He will wilt under fire just like he did here, sadly. He is a typical white liberal reformer- afraid of confrontation and unable to make bold moves and changes. But, if he is elected, white liberals in Chicago will feel good for awhile.
Vallas is the only chance for survival of the city. But even he capitulated to the angry mob by "repudiating" DeSantis' visit to speak in front of the Chicago FOP (police union), after Garcia and the rest of the left "told" him to do it.
When he did that I realized that he is probably gritting his teeth and making a deal in the background to say what he's gotta say, but it showed me that he may not have the necessary courage to do it after all. I also disrespect politicians who cave to the Woke mob. Never apologize to them, and never give them what they want. You punch them in the face, and if they lip off you punch them again. Never apologize for not espousing their ridiculous nonsense.
So I stopped paying attention. Just prior to the "repudiation" Vallas was tied for first. I'm guessing that he now is not. That's what happens when you play their game -- you lose.