The other day I was a bit shocked when I saw the NCAA went after Jim Harbaugh for buying a recruit a hamburger. A $10 burger is going to sway him to attend Michigan? Not with Name Image Likeness (NIL) money on the table.
With all that is going on, coaches don’t have time for that crap. To be a coach today, you not only have to be able to sell your school and recruit along with knowing the X’s and O’s, and be great at teaching and motivation. You have to be like a corporate CEO that runs a business. That’s why coaches get paid the big bucks and salaries aren’t going to go lower, they will go higher as more money gets funneled into the system.
The overhead necessary to run a program in college will grow. You will need HR people. You will need better training facilities for rehab to keep players healthy.
The “negotiation” that happens between player and coach has suddenly changed. Coaches used to be all-powerful but not anymore. The Fighting Illini lost a five-star point guard recruit last week in the midseason! That wouldn’t have happened a few years ago. Yesterday, they just said they signed one of the top point guards in Europe to come and play next year.
Jason Whitlock, whom I admire, thinks that college sports might collapse. I don’t think they will but they are certainly going to change. I agree with some of his points. If I was an All-American recruit, and now some other guy on my team is making a lot more than me on NIL, I would be jealous. How much NIL money is the left tackle at Texas getting? The existing QB, and the incoming star recruit Arch Manning, are making millions. Maybe I let that rusher by on a couple of plays if I don’t get my money.
The entire economy of college sports is changing and I think it is going to make coaching a team really really hard. I also think that you could see new teams emerge as powerhouses. What if UNLV’s casinos got together and spread a little NIL love to UNLV in order to attract people to Vegas to watch them play?
If you are a perennial doormat in a Power 5 conference like Northwestern, you will probably always stay a perennial doormat. What five-star recruit wants to be a “program changer” when they can make a lot more money via a lot larger fanbase at a perennial powerhouse school? In other situations where the playing field changes radically, the power generally gets more powerful. However, if I am not a five-star recruit and I am realistic about the probability of me playing in the NFL/NBA is nil, I might go to Northwestern and grab that sheepskin since it’s a great academic institution with a great business/law/entertainment alumni network that really does favor itself.
I remember hearing about the demise of Las Vegas when Atlantic City opened up. Vegas got bigger. Then, it was online betting apps. Vegas got bigger. I think the same happens with certain colleges. The ones that used to be powerhouses, like Indiana or UCLA, are going to have a lot of decisions to make. UCLA is in a better position than Indiana because it’s in Los Angeles. Population and local marketing could really really sway kids from one school to the next.
There used to be a lot of schools that could be considered “football royalty” or “basketball royalty”. That list has gotten a lot shorter in the last five years. I don’t consider UCLA or Indiana “basketball royalty” anymore. You really have four programs; Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, and Kentucky. Then, the next tier. Then, the next tier.
With the change in economics, it’s going to change the desire for players to play. Teams could see a lot larger talent pool. Money will drive supply. European players who used to stay in Europe to make money in minor pro leagues might come to the US to play in college instead.
The other game changer is the transfer portal and that explodes a lot of the existing economics. Kids can go from school to school effortlessly. They are free agents. It’s not hard to imagine both schools and athletes retaining agents to negotiate for them. If a school spends resources recruiting a guy, then spends NIL resources along with free education, why can’t they contractually lock him up for a two-year period? We are talking about “him” because only two sports, D1 basketball, and football, make the big bucks. The rest might be fun to watch or we are force-fed them due to corporate media wokeness, but they don’t pay bills. They wouldn’t exist without the “hims” at D1 football and basketball programs.
In the old days, if you transferred, you had to sit out a year. I had a friend who was an All-American hoop player in high school go to a top school to play for a top coach. He didn’t get the minutes he wanted and wasn’t happy so he moved. He had to sit out. He wound up having a good career at the new school but today he wouldn’t have to sit out. Sitting out doesn’t help you athletically.
Speaking of that “him” thing, how long will it be before a bunch of boys decides to band together on one team and be girls? They could win NCAA championship after NCAA championship playing D1 women’s basketball, softball, tennis, soccer, or hockey and maybe make some decent dough from it.
The NCAA has been a business for years and years. It’s finally starting to look like a business where “employees” can move at will and can trade their skills for “employment” at the highest bidder’s place of business. I disagree with Jason. I don’t think this will implode college sports. I think you will see consolidation.
It will start with the Power 5 conferences and teams in major markets or teams with big fanbases. The Power 5 will be able to help teams that aren’t in major markets or teams that traditionally struggle like Northwestern out. But, that will rejigger after a while and I think you will see a structure like the Premier League where teams that can’t compete get relegated.
You can see why a college coach like Jim Harbaugh might want to leave college for the pros. Different headaches, but with actual legal contracts and rules around trades etc, you have more certainty and can plan better. There is a significantly smaller amount of pro-jobs though. I expect we will see them turn over faster if a coach doesn’t win, but I think the pay scale for pro coaches will increase a lot too.
I would urge you to take a step back and look at college sports from a broader perspective. Other than general entertainment, does it help or hurt the institution of academia? My contention is that it hurts the schools and the students themselves. At best it’s a distraction of resources and values from actual education. And I think we can all agree that colleges don’t do enough education now. At worst, it is used as a back door program to pretend that it is a way to get underprivileged students into college. It is a highly cynical affirmative action program that uses and throws away those it pretends to educate.
I would rather see a series of minor leagues that provide honest entertainment and actual employment and deemphasize college sports. It’s time for colleges to focus on their core purpose and not hide behind the distractive circus of big time sports.
And don’t get me started on betting apps. Who thinks it’s a good idea to tell Mr and Ms lower and middle class America that it’s “fun” to wager away their paycheck from the comfort of their sofa?
Just because something like a betting app can be done, it doesn’t mean it should be done.
I’ve got to go now. There is a kid in my lawn that needs yelling at and that cloud over there may need a word or two as well.
Villanova has one more championships than Kentucky and Duke the last 20 years. Uconn more than all of them the last 15. Per your missive, it doesn’t matter if you win or lose, it is who provides you with the most $$$ whilst in school and the best path to the league. This I agree with. Purdue is perennially a top 10 team in a shit town with no real natural NIL base donor. At some point the coach matters. When stephens was at Butler, he did great things with his teams. Granted, they were all 4 year players. Few does the same at Gonzaga. It was t til a few years ago that he had players leave early, but he is continuously getting great players to go to Spokane. Spokane!
When does the Driehaus foundation endow DePaul athletetics with 50 million to build a super team? Same with Loyola or UIC. Or Illinois.
Oregon would be a pimple on an elephants ass if Phil Knight was from Boise. Nike has made them a perennial power in football
After Bezos buys the Commanders and makes Alexandria his home, does Maryland or Georgetown become his collegiate pet?
Now I’m rambling. Point is the big 4 you list can be supplanted by anyone with enough $$ to throw at a program.