Trump and Abortion were on the ballot last night. If you are a pro-life Trump supporter, you got your butt kicked. In state after state, Democrats won races on abortion. People voted for that issue more than the economy, the anti-semitism that seeps through the Democratic party, and other issues.
Trump polls the best going into the Republican debate right now but I am convinced he cannot win a national election. This is despite polls that say he can win.
Don’t believe them. Trump candidates can win primaries but they don’t win. You don’t govern by losing elections. You don’t govern by winning Twitter.
The other day, single-state polls, the only polls to watch, showed Trump with leads in several states over Biden. Trump is up a bunch in Nevada which is mostly a blue state. In blue states like Michigan, yes Michigan is a blue state, Trump is up. In a blue state like Wisconsin, yes Wisconsin is a blue state, Trump is barely down. In Arizona, a purple state not a red one, Trump is up.
When a Trump candidate runs they lose. Kari Lake is a great example of that. In Nevada, we have “Trumpish” candidates and they can’t carry water from the well.
In mostly blue Virginia, Democrats retained the legislature despite the popularity of Glenn Youngkin. Youngkin is a pretty great governor and it will be fun to watch him deal with the adversity of this setback.
In Kentucky, which is mostly a red state, a Democratic governor won a repeat term and the competitive candidate was a Trump candidate. Abortion played a big part in that election as well.
The tricky issue for Republicans is abortion. I am pro-life. But, I am willing to concede a compromise of some sort to win elections and run the policy arms of the government.
When the Supreme Court ruled to overturn Roe vs Wade, it was the correct decision legally. It gave voice to the states and ended the national fight on abortion reducing it to a state-by-state basis. Guess what we are finding out in election after election when abortion is on the ballot. Pro-abortion people outnumber pro-life people.
Guess what else we learn. This should disgust you if you are a fervent pro-life person and that is your number one issue. In blue states, the pro-abortion people pass laws that allow abortion on demand up until the cord is cut.
Republicans fear losing the “religious base” if they compromise on abortion. Those voters might stay home. If they do, they will lose them. But there needs to a reckoning. If the religious base stays home, they will get abortion-on-demand laws instead of a compromise, and the time to try and educate the public and change hearts and minds.
Conveniently, Trump is the only candidate who has said he would be willing to moderate on abortion and compromise, but of course, he is unelectable in a nationwide race.
I don’t think that Republicans should abandon Trump’s willingness to fight. That is a great development. I do think they need to abandon the man. I think a candidate who has some of Trump’s policy views without the toxic personality of Trump can win and win big. Right now, that looks like Ron DeSantis or perhaps Nikki Haley. The Democrats are going to run Gavin Newsome with someone like JB Pritzker, Jared Polis, or Gretchen Whitmer as the VP. They are identity politics all the way.
The Democrats are certainly in disarray. But, so are the Republicans.
I should have added this. If you look at polls when your candidate is down in them and say, "Pollsters are biased", how do you know that the current polls are not deliberately biased? Maybe they over sampled Republican voters to keep Republicans on the Trump Train knowing that the Dems will do the switcheroo and get rid of Biden and replace him. Newsome, and other Democrats beat Trump in polling.
If I'm a pro-life Republican presidential candidate I would just punt on this issue. Say it is a state's issue and have no further comment on it. You can say that you are personally, strongly, pro-life, but that since you believe in Federalism this is a state level issue.
When the media further attacks you explain that you are not supportive of any federal level legislation for or against the issue. It belongs to the states.
And then move on. You will gain more independents on this than you will lose from the pro-life single issue people. When they protest, you have to explain--like Nikki Haley did--that this one issue is best fought at the state level.
You can't win them all, and this has to happen before Republicans can truly dominate elections.