I am in Austin, Texas for a friend’s 50th. Just ate at Franklin BBQ. I have meat sweats.
Here is some music (not country) for the theme of this blog post.
Predictably, my friends who support Ukraine were all over social media with Ukraine flags. Predictably, none of them watched the full 50 minutes of dialogue between Zelensky, Trump, JD Vance, etc. If you did, you would see Zelensky overplaying his hand, which is why Trump said Zelensky wasn’t holding the cards.
The Zelensky bluff was called. He didn’t have pocket aces.
It is said that the Obama henchmen were talking to Zelensky and I’d love to see them charged with Logan Act violations. If true, what they did was treasonous, and bad advice.
From what I can gather, it sounds like Zelensky was adamant about having US troops on the ground in Ukraine. Why would any sane person agree to that?
But, the whole thing brings up a much more poignant point. If you walk into a negotiation and aren’t willing to walk away from it, then you aren’t going into a negotiation. You have to enter the room willing to walk.
It doesn’t mean you make outlandish requests to force the other side into a position where it’s more desirable to walk. But, if you find yourself in a position where the terms are something you just don’t want to pay the costs to execute on, you have to be willing to walk.
Those costs could be monetary, emotional, or opportunity costs for resources that would be better used elsewhere. There are all kinds of angles on a negotiation. Trump is a master at it, and just gave a master class. Do you think he hasn’t walked away from the table before?
One thing you can do is try and get the other side to anchor on something. Let’s say it is real estate. If you are listing your house, the listing price is an attempt to get the other side to anchor on that price and bid close to it.
Zelensky thought that the playing field he was executing on was different. He was playing basketball and Trump was playing ice hockey. Zelensky misread the entire situation. As Trump said correctly in the dialogue, “You don’t have any cards.”
There is a deal to be had here, but Zelensky is going to have to swallow some pride to get it done and the ball rolling again. I did watch his interview with Bret Baier and I don’t think he has the self-reflection right now to get it done.
I have had personal experience with this.
When you invest in startups, there is a negotiation. This is especially true if you lead deals. In many cases, there can be sticking points in the negotiation. Both parties want the same outcome, a check from the investor in exchange for equity and other considerations like board seats. Read about term sheets to get a feel for what I am talking about.
Many times, we would get stuck on certain terms. You learn a lot about the other party as you negotiate. Sometimes, investors have a strategy of introducing some stress into the negotiation just to understand how the entrepreneur deals with it.
I wanted one particular deal, but the other side walked away. They decided they wanted larger investors in their deal. We had been negotiating with the wrong person. The person we were talking to wasn’t the decision maker. We had made a mistake. Always make sure you are talking to “the man.” This is a first principle of selling skills, and we ignored it.
I had another deal where the negotiation was protracted. It took far, far too long. Looking back, I should have walked. I didn’t, and the investment didn’t turn out very well. I misread the room and the signs I was seeing.
I knew Mark Rubin a little bit. He was truly a wonderful man and he has left behind a wonderful family. He was a real estate developer in LA. He told me he never used an attorney to negotiate. “If I can’t trust you, why would I do business with you?” was his response. That’s pretty good food for thought.
Warren Buffett always says great deals come together rather easily. I have found that to be the case.
The Susan Rice/Blinkers/Vindman cabal needs a proper sitting down with Trump/Vance. I hope the FBI would check into this band and see how much they pilfered the USAid honey pot. A little transparency goes a long way.
The articles I read stated that this meeting was actually pointless and didn't have to involve travel. The premise was to simply sign the mining treaty, have some lunch, and go home. The negotiations had long past (probably the reason why Rubio looks so annoyed during the meeting).
Some of those articles asserted a "conspiracy theory" that Z-man had met before the meeting with various neo-cons (Vindman, Nuland, Rice...) who recommended that Z-man act the way he did. Which may explain why he looked so confused/surprised by the meeting's result.
Third, I thought that Trump's mining deal was a clever way to create a financial interest worth defending in Ukraine without sending soldiers or money. It would be in Ukraine's interest to protect it. It would act as a deterrent to others.