My old acquaintance Shelley Berkely, mayor of Las Vegas, lamented the lack of voter interest in the recent Nevada primary election. In Clark County, 18% of registered voters turned out. Here is a photo of Shelley and me back in the day when she was in Congress, and I was trading. We lobbied both sides of the aisle.
I contend that political parties that prize power over citizens want low voter turnout so they can control elections. This is a core driver of policy inside political machines like the Chicago Machine and other machines across the country. Harry Reid had a machine in Nevada, but now it’s sputtering.
The rise of Democratic Socialism splinters the Democratic Machine. The rise of MAGA splintered Republican Establishment machines. The Republicans are further along in the process of rebuilding than the Democrats are. The Democrats are in the early stages of confronting it.
The old Establishment wing of the Republican Party still exists and holds power in certain places. See John Thune. But it’s on life support. See John Cornyn.
The reporter for the LVRJ wrote a story about voting. You will get some data points but not insight.
Here is some insight.
The Nevada Secretary of State chalks it up to automatic voter registration. There is some merit to his point. Automatically registering people skews the numbers. But because of the way the LVRJ reported the numbers, turnout looks lower than it actually was.
Since Nevada has closed primaries, and they should keep it that way, the actual data is different. Approximately 29.9% of registered Democrats and 26.9% of registered Republicans in Clark County turned out for the June 9, 2026, Nevada primary election.
Since there are closed primaries, you’d expect that independents wouldn’t vote. If you choose to be independent, you don’t get as much of a say. That lowers participation. Opening primaries isn’t going to change that. Opening primaries will invite monkey business.
Scott Gavorsky has done a lot of analysis of voter registration and turnout in his blog. In order to truly grasp what he uncovers, you have to have a good handle on basic statistical analysis. He does a good job of trying to educate the uneducated. After all, he is a professor.
Here is part one. Here is part two. Here is part three. One key point he makes, which flies in the face of arguments for open primaries, is this:
The current core argument about Non-Partisans is the cause for the massive increase in their share of registered voters since 2020, and particularly since the 2024 Election. Much of the media coverage is focused on this growth as a possible result of dissatisfaction with both the major parties. Proponents of this read claim that Non-Partisan registration is more often a choice.
My argument, which sparked this series, is that the growth of Non-Partisans is largely a consequence of Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) through the Department of Motor Vehicles and other state services
If you move to Nevada and are a “soft R” or “soft D”, the odds are you won’t register in a party. The other facet to consider based on behavioral economics is that people prize “optionality”. They don’t like to make decisions or choices until they have to.
If I were a benevolent dictator, I’d offer the opportunity to register to vote at the DMV, but I would not force it as it is done today. That would give analysts better voter data, and it would force political parties to go out and actively recruit voters. That means they’d have to work harder, and it might bring new blood into the party. It might make internal party politics more competitive as well.
Competition is great! In America, we prize it in business and do everything we can do to avoid it in politics.
If political parties had to go out and sell people on joining their party, they’d get more committed voters, and people would have an incentive to show up.
Nevada also has a voter roll problem, which Chuck Muth has banged the drum on over and over again. His Pigpen Project has uncovered all kinds of irregularities. I moved to Nevada from Chicago, so I understand “voter roll problems”. On election day in Chicago, a great wind emerges from cemeteries. Somehow, the stiff breeze finds its way into a voter booth. Voter ID can curb a lot of the abuse, and we should have it nationwide.
Having messy voter rolls helps multiply the cynicism people already have over the political process, causing them not to participate.
The 2020 Presidential election, where there were a lot of statistical abnormalities, deepens cynicism. Sure, Biden got more votes than Obama…sure he did. Cheating causes people not to participate.
“You can re-register to a party that you want to participate in, and then re-register back to nonpartisan for the general or future elections,” Aguilar said.
Yes, no one is going to do that. The way Nevada registers voters is a problem and contributes to low voter turnout.
Ironically, Republicans hate mail-in balloting. However, mail-in balloting is a good idea if it is done responsibly. In Nevada, it is done in a way that cheating can occur, which undermines the incentive to vote.
The other major problem is gerrymandering. Gerrymandering is anticompetitive. It takes away choice. It is the equivalent of putting a heavyweight boxer in a ring with a cruiserweight. The cruiserweight has a chance, but it’s slim to none.
If you are in a political party that gets gerrymandered against, what incentive do you have to show up to the polls in either the primary or general election? Look at CD2 and CD4 in Nevada. Voters who are in the extreme minority inside those districts only have an incentive to show up to vote for statewide candidates this year. In Presidential years, for the President and the Senate.
It will never be perfect, but Nevada ought to redistrict so that districts are even, to within +2 of a political party. That’s competitive. Competition will increase turnout. Look at what happened in CD2 inside both parties this past election cycle. Even though the Democrats are gerrymandered against, they turned out because they thought they might have a chance at turning a seat.
Not only that, but ending gerrymandering will increase the quality of candidates that turn out. Nevada has a history of perennial candidates in both parties. People who might be on the edge of running won’t have the excuse of gerrymandering to dissuade them from running. Believe me, it is a big disincentive.
No matter how much money the cruiserweight spends against the heavyweight, the heavyweight still has high odds of winning when the race is gerrymandered.
You get better government by ending gerrymandering. Extreme candidates from both parties can’t get elected because they won’t get through the primary.
Change those three things, and turnout would increase.
End automatic registration and clean voter rolls.
Have responsible mail-in balloting, not like it is today
Redraw districts so they are competitive.
I won’t hold my breath.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/evidence-mounts-noncitizens-reaching-voter-rolls-casting-ballots-doj Color me not shocked at this whatever color that is.
In the age of AI and massive data -- property records, drivers licenses, tax records, social security, social security death records, birth records, utilities, postal service records (change of address) -- there is no excuse for voter rolls not being accurate.
These are records the government controls in some fashion. You could also buy data such as cell phone registrations and shipping records and obituaries.
The target is having an accurate certified voter roll 30 days before the election. If you had 5% fuzzy data, it could be cleared up at the polls on Election Day.
I used to be an Election Judge and we always had a few fuzzy names that were cleared up on the spot.
Before the invention of AI, you would have to make all those systems talk to each other by integrating their software -- intimidating task -- but with AI that is not required.
You could data dump all those records and carve out all the accurate records and work through the ones that have conflicts.
This is also a fantastic application for blockchain once the accurate voter roll is created. Then all you would have to do is input births, deaths, move-ins, and move outs. Perfect blockchain app.
This would be a perfect project for Palantir. They would create a platform that would work for every state.