Cellphone location data, as I understand it, derives from GPS data if the phone has GPS enabled, otherwise, based on triangulation of distances from multiple cell towers. The first should usually be accurate to around 20-30 feet, for the second, more like 500-1000 feet.
I don't know whether the purchased data includes a 'how derived' flag, indicating what records are GPS-derived versus which are not. Would seem important to know.
I haven't done the statistical analysis (and neither, I suspect, have the various professors who claim in 'fact checks' that you can't draw any conclusions from the cellphone data), but adjacency to TEN drop boxes as well as FIVE political nonprofits seems like a pretty tight screen for GPS-derived locations.
What was hilarious about the Twitter thread you posted was that all the detractors probably use Uber and Lyft and the location services when they use them seem pretty accurate.
So, I disagree on one major point with DiSouza. I don't think Republicans should campaign on "fraud" but they ought to campaign on voter ID, cleaning up the voter rolls and against ballot harvesting. Even if the election was in fact stolen, it hasn't been proven in court and so in public circles, you should talk about honest elections and democracy. Privately we can chatter about stolen elections. "OJ killed his wife, but you can't prove it in court"
D'Souza is about 1/4 of a step saner than Sidney Powell. There is no need to listen to a thing the guy says, even if he sometimes says things that are close to reasonable. There's been no election with more investigations than 2020's. None of the official ones have come up with anything substantive. And even most of the crackpot ones ("Cyber Ninja"!) haven't found anything material. There's just no such thing as a competent, secret conspiracy theory of such scope necessary to change multiple states' counts.
It's fine to believe some laws should be tightened up to address the points in your list. My personal preference is to have an Election Day holiday. There are better sources of information and advocates of change than relying on fringe actors.
I don't think a Holiday is necessary. But here is my compromise. No early voting. No mail-in balloting. No absentee balloting. Vote on that day. Voter ID required. There is statistical evidence pointing to fraud-but it has not been proven in court. In many cases the legal team presenting the case was unqualified. In others, like the Texas case, the SCOTUS ruled they didn't have the standing to challenge. It's a correct ruling based on the Constitution. But, until it's adjudicated and heard by a court there will be no resolution. Ballot harvesting is a Democratic Machine operation. Invented in places like Philly and Chicago and hyper perfected in California. It's not hard to follow the money to see how that happened.
Not a question, but being a "fringe actor" is neither necessary nor sufficient to identify potential fraud. These groups, particularly at this point, are grifters. D'Souza is a serial grifter. Day trading bitcoin is more worthwhile than paying attention to these "theories".
Independent of what you think of D'Souza (and this wasn't just his project, Catherine E's organization was also involved), do you have a critique of the methodology used?
I read the peer reviewed statistical study they referred to. There might be a flaw in an assumption that two bordering counties resemble each other enough to replicate results. On the "tracking" it is compelling and law enforcement uses it-BUT you have to prove it in court and you'd need more that that sort of anecdotal evidence to prove beyond reasonable doubt. But it sure looks fishy
Where was the reference to the statistical study?..in the movie, or the WP article? (I don't subscribe to WP anymore so can't read the article unless I go read it at the library)
Here is some stuff on the study. https://alethonews.com/2022/03/31/a-peer-reviewed-statistical-analysis-of-the-2020-election/ It was mentioned in passing (because Dinesh didn't do it!). That is one of my problems with a lot of these "conservative" talking heads. They are more about themselves than they are being conservative sometimes. It's a constant money machine. Same on the liberal side. A new book comes out etc...they need the grievance culture to exist to make money. Weird incentives.
And I totally agree with your money machine statement. Just like the Tea Party & BLM organizations, these groups are all about extracting money from small donors.
Surprisingly I was able to read the article in full. Clicked on it from Twitter. Although, perhaps, not surprising that WP would want as many people as possible to read it. Those already predisposed toward disbelieving the documentary will use this article as their source of info and not go any further.
At best they have some plausibles. They don't deliver any actual goods. There's no way to pay 2000 people to stuff ballot boxes without someone in the management of the process spilling the beans. There appears to be zero people not already in their orbit that says there is any credibility to their claims. As said already, 2020 is the most analyzed election and there's been no credible evidence brought to any trial or court that supports these claims. At this point the "stolen election" crowd are about as credible as the "fire doesn't melt steel" crowd. I'm all for election reforms. Relying on these groups isn't they way to get there.
They deliver actual goods. I am from Chicago. I know there is a way to manage this without spilling the goods. Read John Kass sometime. There is lots of credible evidence, the problem is the procedures and process of the law. Law is different than business; and sane person knows that. Law is also different than the real world. Most sane people don't begin to understand that.
I'm from Chicago too, that's how I found your blog originally. So I understand the system. I used to read Kass a lot. At some point he became too negative for me. And then too populist. Some of it was understandable, the Trib did not treat him very well. It's not hard to follow evidence in legal cases. I was on a week long medical malpractice case in Cook County. The jury had no problem finding for the defendant. The case had been in the system for years and several doctors had settled before trial. Fraud is probably even easier to figure out. But it has to be a lot more than hand waving, inferences, and claims of unfairness. Which is about all they've identified. Other than a person or two in The Villages who voted twice.
Why wouldn't you want to have a beer with Dinesh? I listen to his daily podcast and find him engaging, quite intelligent and extremely well read. Just the type of person I would love to chat with.
I would encourage you to listen to a few of his podcasts. That might change your mind. We all need context and perspective. I mean, I would deign to have a beer with you, if you are ever in the Denver area:).
Cellphone location data, as I understand it, derives from GPS data if the phone has GPS enabled, otherwise, based on triangulation of distances from multiple cell towers. The first should usually be accurate to around 20-30 feet, for the second, more like 500-1000 feet.
I don't know whether the purchased data includes a 'how derived' flag, indicating what records are GPS-derived versus which are not. Would seem important to know.
I haven't done the statistical analysis (and neither, I suspect, have the various professors who claim in 'fact checks' that you can't draw any conclusions from the cellphone data), but adjacency to TEN drop boxes as well as FIVE political nonprofits seems like a pretty tight screen for GPS-derived locations.
What was hilarious about the Twitter thread you posted was that all the detractors probably use Uber and Lyft and the location services when they use them seem pretty accurate.
Yuma County (AZ) sheriffs office beginning an investigation:
https://www.truethevote.org/yuma-county-sheriffs-office-opens-massive-voter-fraud-investigation/
So, I disagree on one major point with DiSouza. I don't think Republicans should campaign on "fraud" but they ought to campaign on voter ID, cleaning up the voter rolls and against ballot harvesting. Even if the election was in fact stolen, it hasn't been proven in court and so in public circles, you should talk about honest elections and democracy. Privately we can chatter about stolen elections. "OJ killed his wife, but you can't prove it in court"
See the twitter commentary following this Washington Post 'fact checking' article...not a whole lot of open-minded, analytical people represented:
https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1524590704026136577
Reading the comments was saddening and maddening. We have a long way to go.
D'Souza is about 1/4 of a step saner than Sidney Powell. There is no need to listen to a thing the guy says, even if he sometimes says things that are close to reasonable. There's been no election with more investigations than 2020's. None of the official ones have come up with anything substantive. And even most of the crackpot ones ("Cyber Ninja"!) haven't found anything material. There's just no such thing as a competent, secret conspiracy theory of such scope necessary to change multiple states' counts.
It's fine to believe some laws should be tightened up to address the points in your list. My personal preference is to have an Election Day holiday. There are better sources of information and advocates of change than relying on fringe actors.
I don't think a Holiday is necessary. But here is my compromise. No early voting. No mail-in balloting. No absentee balloting. Vote on that day. Voter ID required. There is statistical evidence pointing to fraud-but it has not been proven in court. In many cases the legal team presenting the case was unqualified. In others, like the Texas case, the SCOTUS ruled they didn't have the standing to challenge. It's a correct ruling based on the Constitution. But, until it's adjudicated and heard by a court there will be no resolution. Ballot harvesting is a Democratic Machine operation. Invented in places like Philly and Chicago and hyper perfected in California. It's not hard to follow the money to see how that happened.
Only problem is that it's the fringe actors who have nothing to lose or are willing to lose, enough so to go after something like this.
So I guess you don't believe that steel melts in a fire? Or maybe you think that Ted Kaczynski is a good writer?
Not sure how you'd come to these conclusions based on my comment. Is there a more straightforward question?
Not a question, but being a "fringe actor" is neither necessary nor sufficient to identify potential fraud. These groups, particularly at this point, are grifters. D'Souza is a serial grifter. Day trading bitcoin is more worthwhile than paying attention to these "theories".
Independent of what you think of D'Souza (and this wasn't just his project, Catherine E's organization was also involved), do you have a critique of the methodology used?
I read the peer reviewed statistical study they referred to. There might be a flaw in an assumption that two bordering counties resemble each other enough to replicate results. On the "tracking" it is compelling and law enforcement uses it-BUT you have to prove it in court and you'd need more that that sort of anecdotal evidence to prove beyond reasonable doubt. But it sure looks fishy
Where was the reference to the statistical study?..in the movie, or the WP article? (I don't subscribe to WP anymore so can't read the article unless I go read it at the library)
Here is some stuff on the study. https://alethonews.com/2022/03/31/a-peer-reviewed-statistical-analysis-of-the-2020-election/ It was mentioned in passing (because Dinesh didn't do it!). That is one of my problems with a lot of these "conservative" talking heads. They are more about themselves than they are being conservative sometimes. It's a constant money machine. Same on the liberal side. A new book comes out etc...they need the grievance culture to exist to make money. Weird incentives.
And I totally agree with your money machine statement. Just like the Tea Party & BLM organizations, these groups are all about extracting money from small donors.
Lott's statistics have been pretty well refuted. His statistics were at best sloppy. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/04/05/further-ranting-on-public-choices-terrible-decision-if-uri-geller-submits-a-paper-claiming-to-have-photographs-of-the-loch-ness-monster-you-dont-just-say-hey-the-photos-look-real-lets-go/
Surprisingly I was able to read the article in full. Clicked on it from Twitter. Although, perhaps, not surprising that WP would want as many people as possible to read it. Those already predisposed toward disbelieving the documentary will use this article as their source of info and not go any further.
At best they have some plausibles. They don't deliver any actual goods. There's no way to pay 2000 people to stuff ballot boxes without someone in the management of the process spilling the beans. There appears to be zero people not already in their orbit that says there is any credibility to their claims. As said already, 2020 is the most analyzed election and there's been no credible evidence brought to any trial or court that supports these claims. At this point the "stolen election" crowd are about as credible as the "fire doesn't melt steel" crowd. I'm all for election reforms. Relying on these groups isn't they way to get there.
They deliver actual goods. I am from Chicago. I know there is a way to manage this without spilling the goods. Read John Kass sometime. There is lots of credible evidence, the problem is the procedures and process of the law. Law is different than business; and sane person knows that. Law is also different than the real world. Most sane people don't begin to understand that.
I'm from Chicago too, that's how I found your blog originally. So I understand the system. I used to read Kass a lot. At some point he became too negative for me. And then too populist. Some of it was understandable, the Trib did not treat him very well. It's not hard to follow evidence in legal cases. I was on a week long medical malpractice case in Cook County. The jury had no problem finding for the defendant. The case had been in the system for years and several doctors had settled before trial. Fraud is probably even easier to figure out. But it has to be a lot more than hand waving, inferences, and claims of unfairness. Which is about all they've identified. Other than a person or two in The Villages who voted twice.
Why wouldn't you want to have a beer with Dinesh? I listen to his daily podcast and find him engaging, quite intelligent and extremely well read. Just the type of person I would love to chat with.
You?
I don't think it would be a chat. More of a lecture. While we are both conservatives, he seems a bit thin skinned and prickly to me.
I would encourage you to listen to a few of his podcasts. That might change your mind. We all need context and perspective. I mean, I would deign to have a beer with you, if you are ever in the Denver area:).