There are only a handful of longshoremen/stevedore unions in the US and they have recently concluded 5-year contracts that address the issue of automation. So, nothing much will happen at existing facilities for the next 5 years. New facilities will be different.
1. International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) - largest with 85,000 members on Atlantic, Gulf coasts plus Great Lakes, Puerto Rico, Canada, and the Bahamas.
2. International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) - 42,000 members on US West Coast.
The ILWU also has an additional 3,500 members in the Inlandboatmen's Union of the Pacific and 14,000 ILWU Canadian Area
All in all, we are talking about 145,000 workers of all ages -- a lot of old farts. Based on actual work, we likely require about half that amount. The plum job is being an equipment operator.
Both unions struggle to get their men off the bench -- meaning working full time as they have too many members for the amount of work available.
The contracts include many "make work" and "fake work" provisions as well as "no show" jobs. They are, like all trade unions, corrupt AF. A guy has to supervise a worker who is throwing a line around a berthing stanchion. Stupid union shit.
This nonsense from Trump is purely political and a complete head fake. Trump is trying to wiggle into the unions politically looking at the mid-terms. This impacts Congressional elections in many blue states that have ports.
Structurally, the unions have some control over how much technology is deployed via their contract, but new cargo handling companies will begin to appear, new port facilities will be built, and these new cargo handling companies -- not currently signatories to any union contracts -- will deploy new tech at American ports.
I live in Savannah and its port is modestly tech. It is planning a massive expansion and is already one of the largest ports in the US. They are going to either replace the big bridge and dredge the Savannah River to handle the new super container ships. Huge investment and won't be made without a tech upgrade.
Ultimately the cargo handling and the ships will determine the level of tech necessary to handle certain types of containers and bulk goods.
From a tech perspective the two big areas are cargo handling from ship to shore and scheduling for trucks/rail to take the containers and bulk cargo away. The schedule software currently is the best it's ever been. The fight will be over automating the ship to shore lifting equipment.
There is a similar fight underway in the automotive business as it takes 40% less manpower to make an EV than an ICE car. And, then, there are robots.
This is purely political and the victory of tech is inevitable.
Yeah, I'm not very comfortable with this. Not sure to what extent it reflects an anti-automation bias versus short-term political calculations. And there would indeed be reason to be concerns about obtaining the equipment from China IF that's really the only source over the next several years, but if that were Trump's main concern, he should have said so explicitly.
It does strike me that the more port congestion, the better Made in America looks compared with importing / offshoring. There are two elements to this: the actual handling fees charged by the port, and the additional inventory costs resulting from longer & more uncertain procurement times.
Works the other way around for exports, of course.
Just like the trading floor. People thought the would never close but look what happened. If we were still open we would all be dead after trying to trade 30 million contracts a day. They should have automation some of those longshoreman make hundreds of thousand of dollars a year
I suspect Trump knows automation is coming no matter what. Either in existing ports, or future competitors. He doesn't need to put his stamp of approval on automation and alienate the union
Agree Jeff, but here is the caveat: our ports are foreign owned, most by China. I generally oppose unions, but we have to understand the collusion of our government with 'business'. Racketeering is the standard these days.
Do we want our ports remotely controlled by China? Hell, Pete Buttplug Buttigieg and his Gramsci loving father did that in '21/'22 by keeping ships out of sight during the lockdowns.
It is my understanding that the Biden agreement with the East/Gulf unions will hold until... just before inauguration ( https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/theres-another-potential-port-strike-looming-horizon ) So there is a LOT to be done, and closed ports is last on the list. Yes, we are some of the most expensive ports in the world (if you believe data). Yes, they need to be updated and automated... but timing is everything. I am hoping there is a longer term plan for this, and I might mention some ideas, but well... some things are best unsaid.
I don't recall where I read it but they made a point about the output bottle necks of roads and rail handling the "more efficient" offloading of the containers. We had one bridge, ONE wipe out transport from 2 ports for a number of weeks, so automation won't create an automatic improvement of efficiency if those bottlenecks aren't fixed, or made more efficient themselves, according to the argument from who I forget, and that's true. Also they point out that the machine operators are the most expensive, and also the best trained, and I would say, the most likely to be able to handle the transition to greater automation, which would also likely lead to a consistent state of wage for them in the face of automation.
But absent the road and rail capacity, with the workforce able to operate them. It sounds like the idea is to deliver the largest plate on the menu to the smallest mouth, and smaller throats, we still won't be able to eat it till what we Actually think of everyday infrastructure is managed, and built in less than 3 decades.
There are only a handful of longshoremen/stevedore unions in the US and they have recently concluded 5-year contracts that address the issue of automation. So, nothing much will happen at existing facilities for the next 5 years. New facilities will be different.
1. International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) - largest with 85,000 members on Atlantic, Gulf coasts plus Great Lakes, Puerto Rico, Canada, and the Bahamas.
2. International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) - 42,000 members on US West Coast.
The ILWU also has an additional 3,500 members in the Inlandboatmen's Union of the Pacific and 14,000 ILWU Canadian Area
All in all, we are talking about 145,000 workers of all ages -- a lot of old farts. Based on actual work, we likely require about half that amount. The plum job is being an equipment operator.
Both unions struggle to get their men off the bench -- meaning working full time as they have too many members for the amount of work available.
The contracts include many "make work" and "fake work" provisions as well as "no show" jobs. They are, like all trade unions, corrupt AF. A guy has to supervise a worker who is throwing a line around a berthing stanchion. Stupid union shit.
This nonsense from Trump is purely political and a complete head fake. Trump is trying to wiggle into the unions politically looking at the mid-terms. This impacts Congressional elections in many blue states that have ports.
Structurally, the unions have some control over how much technology is deployed via their contract, but new cargo handling companies will begin to appear, new port facilities will be built, and these new cargo handling companies -- not currently signatories to any union contracts -- will deploy new tech at American ports.
I live in Savannah and its port is modestly tech. It is planning a massive expansion and is already one of the largest ports in the US. They are going to either replace the big bridge and dredge the Savannah River to handle the new super container ships. Huge investment and won't be made without a tech upgrade.
Ultimately the cargo handling and the ships will determine the level of tech necessary to handle certain types of containers and bulk goods.
From a tech perspective the two big areas are cargo handling from ship to shore and scheduling for trucks/rail to take the containers and bulk cargo away. The schedule software currently is the best it's ever been. The fight will be over automating the ship to shore lifting equipment.
There is a similar fight underway in the automotive business as it takes 40% less manpower to make an EV than an ICE car. And, then, there are robots.
This is purely political and the victory of tech is inevitable.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
My first thought was that it is inevitable. Just as all technology evolves.
Objective we are!! Can’t stop automation in a free market society!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkjMG3LL_Os sent to me by a friend. informative. worth a listen to understand ports. John Stossel was wrong according to this.
Yeah, I'm not very comfortable with this. Not sure to what extent it reflects an anti-automation bias versus short-term political calculations. And there would indeed be reason to be concerns about obtaining the equipment from China IF that's really the only source over the next several years, but if that were Trump's main concern, he should have said so explicitly.
It does strike me that the more port congestion, the better Made in America looks compared with importing / offshoring. There are two elements to this: the actual handling fees charged by the port, and the additional inventory costs resulting from longer & more uncertain procurement times.
Works the other way around for exports, of course.
Just like the trading floor. People thought the would never close but look what happened. If we were still open we would all be dead after trying to trade 30 million contracts a day. They should have automation some of those longshoreman make hundreds of thousand of dollars a year
we couldn't physically trade that many!
I suspect Trump knows automation is coming no matter what. Either in existing ports, or future competitors. He doesn't need to put his stamp of approval on automation and alienate the union
Of course. He's studied automation and knows just about all there is to know about it.
Agree Jeff, but here is the caveat: our ports are foreign owned, most by China. I generally oppose unions, but we have to understand the collusion of our government with 'business'. Racketeering is the standard these days.
Do we want our ports remotely controlled by China? Hell, Pete Buttplug Buttigieg and his Gramsci loving father did that in '21/'22 by keeping ships out of sight during the lockdowns.
Perplexity, who makes container cranes for ports?
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/where-are-container-cranes-for-o2jJ7bDzTE.aVfHep5sPaA#0
Alternative view on what this possibly is about. Just typical Trump leveraging what he can.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/12/13/president-trump-supports-dockworker-position-against-automation/
It is my understanding that the Biden agreement with the East/Gulf unions will hold until... just before inauguration ( https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/theres-another-potential-port-strike-looming-horizon ) So there is a LOT to be done, and closed ports is last on the list. Yes, we are some of the most expensive ports in the world (if you believe data). Yes, they need to be updated and automated... but timing is everything. I am hoping there is a longer term plan for this, and I might mention some ideas, but well... some things are best unsaid.
Automation of physical container movement is only part of the port problem; there is also a lot of paperwork.
Perplexity, tell me about the current status of Electronic Data Interchange adoption in international trade and especially in US port operations.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/tell-me-about-the-current-stat-qOUm5qRaS3y7oIBnzUPbBA
I don't recall where I read it but they made a point about the output bottle necks of roads and rail handling the "more efficient" offloading of the containers. We had one bridge, ONE wipe out transport from 2 ports for a number of weeks, so automation won't create an automatic improvement of efficiency if those bottlenecks aren't fixed, or made more efficient themselves, according to the argument from who I forget, and that's true. Also they point out that the machine operators are the most expensive, and also the best trained, and I would say, the most likely to be able to handle the transition to greater automation, which would also likely lead to a consistent state of wage for them in the face of automation.
But absent the road and rail capacity, with the workforce able to operate them. It sounds like the idea is to deliver the largest plate on the menu to the smallest mouth, and smaller throats, we still won't be able to eat it till what we Actually think of everyday infrastructure is managed, and built in less than 3 decades.
Yup
You are correct.
I am at least as big of a Trump supporter as anyone you know and I believe he will change his tune after the '26 midterms.
I put the odds at more than 70%.
Wilmington, North Carolina. "The Port City". Some call it 'Little Chicago'. You know CR. The Chinese bought Smithfield and.....
Agreed Jeff.