The notion of AI being smarter than humans is already here. There are a ton of stupid people out there. Honestly, AI has made me smarter already.
The big void and the cause of almost all bad decisions is what we don't know we don't know. AI fills that void.
AI deals with reality. In the end, stupidity is rooted in some disregard for reality. The greatest leadership characteristic is assessing and acting in accordance with reality.
[I once read a private memoir that recounted the conversation wherein Gen Geo C Marshall told FDR for the very first it would take 200 divisions to defeat the Germans and the Japs in WWII. At the time, apparently, we had fewer than 6 divisions. From that moment on, FDR would never allow GCM to leave the US for a protracted period of time and denied him the command of the Normandy invasion because he relied so desperately on Marshall's anchor in reality. GCM was FDR's brain, his tether to reality.]
Let's take a very simple, but recognizable actual problem.
Joe Biden threw the Southern border wide open and every scumbag foreign political leader sent all their detritus, flotsam, and jetsam to our country and many million illegal aliens invaded the country.
When it was clear the American public did not embrace the concept, Joe Biden said he COULDN'T FIX THE PROBLEM without Congressional action.
This Trump fellow gets elected and in the first 24 hours shuts down the border. Tight. Tightest it's been since WWII. Tight. Changes the entire foreign policy of the United States in one bloody day.
Without Congressional action.
The difference? The realities of Joe Biden v Donald Trump. Sure there was some lying going on, but they dealt with different realities.
AI will benefit mankind because it will bring reality into focus and fill the void of what we don't know we don't know in more and more decisions we make.
Critical thinking is decisionmaking driven by data, facts, evidence, and analysis. The better quality data, facts, and evidence we have, the better our analysis will be and the better our decisions will become.
AI provides us with vastly superior data, fact, and evidence and we can then make better decisions.
The revolution in data, facts, evidence, analysis, and decisionmaking AI will drive will become as ubiquitous and omnipresent as air or water. It will be invisible and pervasive. Baked into every cake.
I was in business before the invention of the personal computer and the cell phone. I've won a few bucks using a slide rule in bars. It's been a wild ride and we're still in the early innings.
Yes, of course. There will be expert systems that will provide a formulaic or algorithm answer to basic business decisions. The end user will never see the process or decision tree.
When I was in the apartment racket, we would analyze the asking price for every apartment of similar size -- 2 bedroom/2 bath -- in our applicable submarket.
Our manually generated database was quite a piece of wizardry in those days.
If our current occupancy was in the 95% range, we would raise the price of our units.
We made those decisions individually, used our own self-generated data, and rang our hands about it -- this was ATX in the 1990s. We did this about every 90 days or whenever occupancy approached 100%.
Today, all that data is collected automatically, the analysis is done by an algoritm, and the rental rates are generated by systems that rely more and more on AI.
That is a perfect application for AI.
With AI, you can get even more granular in that you can discriminate between the apartment models -- 1B1B v 2B2B -- and calcuate your occupancies not by the entire complex, but by the model.
Already, such AI based models are able to quote prices based on credit risk analysis. More data, better decisions.
The AI TODAY is a great researcher but a lousy thinker
and even a worse phone screener,but the AGI general intelligence will have neutral pathways that can do logic and they are starting to come out now. There is one in development that will take the AIs today and manage them and are now able to interface incompatible systems so they can communicate. Until then the AI today is about as interesting as the New York Times where they get their machine learning thoughts from.
I had a 2.2 gpa in high school and then attained 4.0 in math classes through my mech engineering degree after four years serving "God and Country". It isn't hard, just hard work and daily attention.
A agree with your sentiments, Jeff, I just am always on guard regarding WHO is filling the databases and their biases.
Good comments on a getting a classical liberal arts education that teaches you to think logically and how to express those thoughts, coherently in a written format. As for AI, based on some of the funny, recent stories, think of the fictitious legal cases and reading lists recently published by AI and used by unsuspecting and supposedly educated people. This tells me that we have a way to go before AI will truly be replacing people.
Technology has been very adept at improving the lives of many humans while at the same time creating new and exciting ways for us to exploit and hurt eachother. As with any tool, it depends on how its used. Wouldnt expect AI to be too much different. Except to the extent its possible, unlike one of my favorite tools, the gun, for it to go off by itself.
The notion of AI being smarter than humans is already here. There are a ton of stupid people out there. Honestly, AI has made me smarter already.
The big void and the cause of almost all bad decisions is what we don't know we don't know. AI fills that void.
AI deals with reality. In the end, stupidity is rooted in some disregard for reality. The greatest leadership characteristic is assessing and acting in accordance with reality.
[I once read a private memoir that recounted the conversation wherein Gen Geo C Marshall told FDR for the very first it would take 200 divisions to defeat the Germans and the Japs in WWII. At the time, apparently, we had fewer than 6 divisions. From that moment on, FDR would never allow GCM to leave the US for a protracted period of time and denied him the command of the Normandy invasion because he relied so desperately on Marshall's anchor in reality. GCM was FDR's brain, his tether to reality.]
Let's take a very simple, but recognizable actual problem.
Joe Biden threw the Southern border wide open and every scumbag foreign political leader sent all their detritus, flotsam, and jetsam to our country and many million illegal aliens invaded the country.
When it was clear the American public did not embrace the concept, Joe Biden said he COULDN'T FIX THE PROBLEM without Congressional action.
This Trump fellow gets elected and in the first 24 hours shuts down the border. Tight. Tightest it's been since WWII. Tight. Changes the entire foreign policy of the United States in one bloody day.
Without Congressional action.
The difference? The realities of Joe Biden v Donald Trump. Sure there was some lying going on, but they dealt with different realities.
AI will benefit mankind because it will bring reality into focus and fill the void of what we don't know we don't know in more and more decisions we make.
Critical thinking is decisionmaking driven by data, facts, evidence, and analysis. The better quality data, facts, and evidence we have, the better our analysis will be and the better our decisions will become.
AI provides us with vastly superior data, fact, and evidence and we can then make better decisions.
The revolution in data, facts, evidence, analysis, and decisionmaking AI will drive will become as ubiquitous and omnipresent as air or water. It will be invisible and pervasive. Baked into every cake.
I was in business before the invention of the personal computer and the cell phone. I've won a few bucks using a slide rule in bars. It's been a wild ride and we're still in the early innings.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
there will be people who entirely outsource their decision making to AI. that's different than using the data and making your own decison.
Yes, of course. There will be expert systems that will provide a formulaic or algorithm answer to basic business decisions. The end user will never see the process or decision tree.
When I was in the apartment racket, we would analyze the asking price for every apartment of similar size -- 2 bedroom/2 bath -- in our applicable submarket.
Our manually generated database was quite a piece of wizardry in those days.
If our current occupancy was in the 95% range, we would raise the price of our units.
We made those decisions individually, used our own self-generated data, and rang our hands about it -- this was ATX in the 1990s. We did this about every 90 days or whenever occupancy approached 100%.
Today, all that data is collected automatically, the analysis is done by an algoritm, and the rental rates are generated by systems that rely more and more on AI.
That is a perfect application for AI.
With AI, you can get even more granular in that you can discriminate between the apartment models -- 1B1B v 2B2B -- and calcuate your occupancies not by the entire complex, but by the model.
Already, such AI based models are able to quote prices based on credit risk analysis. More data, better decisions.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
The AI TODAY is a great researcher but a lousy thinker
and even a worse phone screener,but the AGI general intelligence will have neutral pathways that can do logic and they are starting to come out now. There is one in development that will take the AIs today and manage them and are now able to interface incompatible systems so they can communicate. Until then the AI today is about as interesting as the New York Times where they get their machine learning thoughts from.
Engineering with a minor in Econ. Teaches how to see the unseen.
Austrian emphasis.
economics taught correctly is a good way to organize decision making because of cost/opportunity costs...
I had a 2.2 gpa in high school and then attained 4.0 in math classes through my mech engineering degree after four years serving "God and Country". It isn't hard, just hard work and daily attention.
A agree with your sentiments, Jeff, I just am always on guard regarding WHO is filling the databases and their biases.
Good comments on a getting a classical liberal arts education that teaches you to think logically and how to express those thoughts, coherently in a written format. As for AI, based on some of the funny, recent stories, think of the fictitious legal cases and reading lists recently published by AI and used by unsuspecting and supposedly educated people. This tells me that we have a way to go before AI will truly be replacing people.
Technology has been very adept at improving the lives of many humans while at the same time creating new and exciting ways for us to exploit and hurt eachother. As with any tool, it depends on how its used. Wouldnt expect AI to be too much different. Except to the extent its possible, unlike one of my favorite tools, the gun, for it to go off by itself.