Bitcoin hit $70k today. Maybe other cryptos will rally gigantically and I will sell into the rally. The Bitcoin Bros are out in full force on Twitter telling everyone they can and trying to instill FOMO into price action. Even on a pure risk-return analysis Bitcoin is already the best asset class any capital allocator could include in a portfolio. Here's what a 10% allocation to Bitcoin represents in terms of changes in return, volatility and drawdown in many popular portfolios. Some interesting results, on a commodity based portfolio, not only it increases returns and sharpe ratio but it ALSO reduces the drawdown risk. Institutional investors are slowly understanding that the real risk is not including
I don't trade what I don't understand. What I mean is that I don't trade it unless I understand why its price moves and the reasons. If it moves because of some relationship with another asset (like, say, treasury yields) then I have an anchor of understanding and I can build a trading thesis.
Maybe that exists for Bitcoin, but I don't know it yet. And I haven't seen much about the underlying reasons for Bitcoin other than one-time events like the creation of ETFs or FOMO. To me, these aren't permanent relationships and are thus non-tradeable.
If it just moves solely because more people are buying it, and there doesn't seem to be any linkage to anything in the broader economy, then I will stay far away.
Perhaps I'll be late to the party, but if shopkeepers start posting signs in their windows "Bitcoin accepted here" then I'll work on getting in. But for now, that's a risk I'd rather like to avoid.
In September of 2021, John Paulson was interviewed by David Rubenstein. Paulson mentioned that he was very bearish on 2% long bonds at the time and he was also long gold. (Ka-Ching, Ka-Ching) But, your comment reminded me of Paulson's comments on crypto.
Paulson said he doesn't, "believe in cryptocurrencies", and added that they're "in a bubble." Echoing your sentiment, Paulson said "crypto is a limited supply of nothing." When Rubenstein asked if given that, was Paulson short the space, Paulson's answer was interesting. Paulson said that the subprime short was a great trade because the payoff was "asymmetrical" to the risk. In the case of Bitcoin, Paulson said the volatility and the chance of a large, short crushing rally was too great for him to participate.
In addition to the attached article I just sent there are many coins that have many practical uses that have already been put into adoption by major corporations around the world in a profitable way.
That stated, for whatever reason, and I have a number of them, I have generally been sitting out this rally, despite having been one of the three most active cryptocurrency traders in the United States on the crypto exchange that was the 7th largest in the world at the time and eventually developed a partnership with the New York Stock Exchange, Crypto dot com, CDC,( for our purposes here because every time I write it, it attaches a link and that's a pain in the ass LOL).
Unfortunately that particular Exchange, due to archaic and ignorant bureaucratic nonsense perpetrated by some of the most foolish and ignorant bureaucratic authorities in the United States(hello Gary gensler) who did not understand anything about cryptocurrencies, as evidenced by having spot market crypto controlled by the cftc when there were existing futures and options markets in it and they just don't get it, not only have limitations on the size of deposits and withdrawals as well as transaction sizes, they also had the unheard of policy of placing limits on numbers of transactions daily!
This was ostensibly done in the name of fighting money laundering, but when you're trying to expedite your learning process like I was by taking positions in 125 to 175 different coins at a time, most of which were minimal positions of 10 to $25 and then building up from there, almost like learning how to trade futures or options doing one lots in the beginning, it makes it very difficult when you're Frozen for 24 hours.
Nonetheless, from the third week of March to the second week of November I achieved a 25.5 to 1 ROI which is pretty damn impressive and the best of my lifetime.
That to me was almost easy to do, because it was a runaway bull market with so many new amateurs jumping in, including some "professionals" who did not know what they were doing.
It is a much more mature market 3 years later and I just don't have the same interest that I once did, but it's here to stay.
The thing that many people don't want to talk about that are the two biggest assets to crypto and will be brought up that way in half a decade are that a) it is a way of reducing carbon footprint despite how much electricity is used, because the manufacturing of paper and metal currency from harvesting of raw material to creation of end product uses up a tremendous amount of energy, and b) an irrefutable and absolute significant reduction in Street crime around the world because who's going to try to steal from you when you don't have paper or metal money on you?
Yes there are ways around that but they require identification and so if you're a criminal how often are you willing to volunteer the information before committing a crime?
Regardless of your opinion or my opinion it is an inevitability that digital currency will replace paper and metal currency in the next decade around the world.
A lot of issues from civil rights to implementation to access have to be worked out but I would not stand in the way of progress.
The people I've spoken to at high levels of government here in the us, as well as Europe, South America and Asia, who actually have an understanding of that product, agree with my assessment.
I have no player in the game in this and have no investment in any companies, nor have I ever sold any of it to anybody or my services to anybody - I'm strictly an independent trader and speculator.
It is just a sensible thing.
It is like anything else that has now gone from an embryo to fetus to birth to toddler stage. Toddler's crawl, stand, fall down again, get back up and try again. Same here.
Every product and service in history has had good guys and bad guys and this will be no different.
Most great ideas that began to gain traction on main Street faced a healthy skepticism that helped improve their product and this is no different either.
Fluffing off something with a Trillion $ MC and making up the most successful ETF launch in history means you don't understand Bitcoin. Go to Clark moody dashboard with .major BTC data poi is and Info when you know what 20% of the stuff means, then tell me WHAT you don't like about Bitcoin, specifically. Not just regurgitated MSM BS. Peace and Love
That Helium Mobile is a wild one. I have a business plan that a guy from Motorola and I worked on a few years ago that is very similar, without the crypto stuff. I think our demo actually worked, as opposed to the vapor ware that Helium is peddling.
I don't trade what I don't understand. What I mean is that I don't trade it unless I understand why its price moves and the reasons. If it moves because of some relationship with another asset (like, say, treasury yields) then I have an anchor of understanding and I can build a trading thesis.
Maybe that exists for Bitcoin, but I don't know it yet. And I haven't seen much about the underlying reasons for Bitcoin other than one-time events like the creation of ETFs or FOMO. To me, these aren't permanent relationships and are thus non-tradeable.
If it just moves solely because more people are buying it, and there doesn't seem to be any linkage to anything in the broader economy, then I will stay far away.
Perhaps I'll be late to the party, but if shopkeepers start posting signs in their windows "Bitcoin accepted here" then I'll work on getting in. But for now, that's a risk I'd rather like to avoid.
In September of 2021, John Paulson was interviewed by David Rubenstein. Paulson mentioned that he was very bearish on 2% long bonds at the time and he was also long gold. (Ka-Ching, Ka-Ching) But, your comment reminded me of Paulson's comments on crypto.
Paulson said he doesn't, "believe in cryptocurrencies", and added that they're "in a bubble." Echoing your sentiment, Paulson said "crypto is a limited supply of nothing." When Rubenstein asked if given that, was Paulson short the space, Paulson's answer was interesting. Paulson said that the subprime short was a great trade because the payoff was "asymmetrical" to the risk. In the case of Bitcoin, Paulson said the volatility and the chance of a large, short crushing rally was too great for him to participate.
The entire interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yK5ILtYlUs
You might find this link of interest. https://www.lynalden.com/what-is-money/
In addition to the attached article I just sent there are many coins that have many practical uses that have already been put into adoption by major corporations around the world in a profitable way.
That stated, for whatever reason, and I have a number of them, I have generally been sitting out this rally, despite having been one of the three most active cryptocurrency traders in the United States on the crypto exchange that was the 7th largest in the world at the time and eventually developed a partnership with the New York Stock Exchange, Crypto dot com, CDC,( for our purposes here because every time I write it, it attaches a link and that's a pain in the ass LOL).
Unfortunately that particular Exchange, due to archaic and ignorant bureaucratic nonsense perpetrated by some of the most foolish and ignorant bureaucratic authorities in the United States(hello Gary gensler) who did not understand anything about cryptocurrencies, as evidenced by having spot market crypto controlled by the cftc when there were existing futures and options markets in it and they just don't get it, not only have limitations on the size of deposits and withdrawals as well as transaction sizes, they also had the unheard of policy of placing limits on numbers of transactions daily!
This was ostensibly done in the name of fighting money laundering, but when you're trying to expedite your learning process like I was by taking positions in 125 to 175 different coins at a time, most of which were minimal positions of 10 to $25 and then building up from there, almost like learning how to trade futures or options doing one lots in the beginning, it makes it very difficult when you're Frozen for 24 hours.
Nonetheless, from the third week of March to the second week of November I achieved a 25.5 to 1 ROI which is pretty damn impressive and the best of my lifetime.
That to me was almost easy to do, because it was a runaway bull market with so many new amateurs jumping in, including some "professionals" who did not know what they were doing.
It is a much more mature market 3 years later and I just don't have the same interest that I once did, but it's here to stay.
The thing that many people don't want to talk about that are the two biggest assets to crypto and will be brought up that way in half a decade are that a) it is a way of reducing carbon footprint despite how much electricity is used, because the manufacturing of paper and metal currency from harvesting of raw material to creation of end product uses up a tremendous amount of energy, and b) an irrefutable and absolute significant reduction in Street crime around the world because who's going to try to steal from you when you don't have paper or metal money on you?
Yes there are ways around that but they require identification and so if you're a criminal how often are you willing to volunteer the information before committing a crime?
Regardless of your opinion or my opinion it is an inevitability that digital currency will replace paper and metal currency in the next decade around the world.
A lot of issues from civil rights to implementation to access have to be worked out but I would not stand in the way of progress.
The people I've spoken to at high levels of government here in the us, as well as Europe, South America and Asia, who actually have an understanding of that product, agree with my assessment.
I have no player in the game in this and have no investment in any companies, nor have I ever sold any of it to anybody or my services to anybody - I'm strictly an independent trader and speculator.
It is just a sensible thing.
It is like anything else that has now gone from an embryo to fetus to birth to toddler stage. Toddler's crawl, stand, fall down again, get back up and try again. Same here.
Every product and service in history has had good guys and bad guys and this will be no different.
Most great ideas that began to gain traction on main Street faced a healthy skepticism that helped improve their product and this is no different either.
https://www.britannica.com/money/crypto-use-cases
Fluffing off something with a Trillion $ MC and making up the most successful ETF launch in history means you don't understand Bitcoin. Go to Clark moody dashboard with .major BTC data poi is and Info when you know what 20% of the stuff means, then tell me WHAT you don't like about Bitcoin, specifically. Not just regurgitated MSM BS. Peace and Love
That Helium Mobile is a wild one. I have a business plan that a guy from Motorola and I worked on a few years ago that is very similar, without the crypto stuff. I think our demo actually worked, as opposed to the vapor ware that Helium is peddling.
Hooray! I can lose slightly less on the $500 in Bitcoin I have in my PayPal account now. Complete with IRS reporting on the gain!