"My guess is when they first did COVID modeling that showed a large percentage of the humans on Earth dying, they had the same statistical errors in modeling. "
I counter that the results presented weren't based on statistical errors. In my previous day job I performed a lot of data modeling, and the projected death models in Spring of 2020 were my first clue in that the COVID narrative was a BS psy-op. In my humble opinion, the graphs were the academic equivalent of a crayon drawing, with no data or published model that could be repeated and verified. The only documentation provided was a press release. I suspect they spent less than 30 min creating those graphs.
Still mad that I couldn't convince anyone else of this at the time. Fear had a tight grip on academia, and all reason had been tossed to the wind.
It probably wasn't just fear of the Kung flu but also what might happen to one's career if any unwarranted independent thinking was being contemplated.
I could never completely accept anything based just on models. Modeling is a method whether it applies to weather, the stock market or horse racing. And all models are wrong, but some are useful (George Box). The more variables, the more complexity, the higher the probability that something will be off -- by a lot. And jeez, the models are only looking at a system with an infinite number of variables and many of the variables are not predictable over time. Like volcanoes and solar activity. And there are unknowns that can't be accounted for because no one has figured out they are there. Like volcanoes on the ocean floor in the vast areas that haven't been surveyed. And as Roy Spencer points out, all the various models from the best labs are diverging over time. If the predictions were accurate the various models would be converging. From day 1, I was skeptical and I find the willingness of so many to go along with all this deeply depressing.
Not to mention that they are just plain stupid for the most part : ) We are now to the point of shutting down the CA government with emergency orders over rainstorms. Sunny and 75 and everyone got a day off. These clowns are licking their chops to put out masking and shutdown orders once again.
I just saw a post Glenn / Instapundit made of someone lamenting that there are people who don't go to college! The horror....
It did mention that people running the country all end up coming form the same universities, and then intermarry. It's interesting that many Ivy (particularly Harvard) grads I have met want tell tell you where they went to school in the first 60 seconds. Those most included to do this seems to have a hubris and naiveté that is astonishing.
Now if these folks do get to start running a part of the country, and they just aren't very good, it will create problems. And this is worse since they always seem to fail upward into a better paying position -- political loyalty is more important than competence. Then if their kids, similarly, ahem, privileged, get into a similar job, we start getting more and more levels of misunderstanding of reality. Because they have been insulated from it. It is a set of people who base their cosmology entirely on theory (surrounded by political protection), rather than a straight on confrontation of reality. People who have worked dangerous jobs tend to get "it", even if later they become intellectuals/professors. (cf: Telluride Institute)
It's the bullwhip effect for an entire society. A group of individuals who ignore feedback.
How each of us makes micro decisions influence's our entire life. Each choice matters. Same is true for the country as a whole. And if you make enough bad choices, bad things happen. Sometimes very bad things. That's why it is important for those making decisions for the rest of us (or for whomever they are responsible) to viscerally understand the effects of their choices. And the best way for them to understand is to have had them be in places where they were physically threatened. That might be the military, but it might just mean doing roofing.
Spending a summer doing your SAT prep class and your climbing trip to France is not it.
It’s why cars rear end in a long line when the first stops suddenly… Assume a line of cars all equally spaced, and identical reaction times not equal to zero. The first the lag in response time, even a miniscule one, can result in a collision with each car behind the lead being just a bit close to the one in front of the until collision.
Ditto cycling in a peloton. The guys at the back have to brake hard, then jump on it to catch up at ache slow down. So ride at the front (Ref: Bicycle Road Racking, Borysewicz.)
Being at the front is pretty good life advice in general.
And, if you follow the models with big errors, we will all crash in a big heap at the back of the peoloton.
It's a penny doubled EVERY DAY for 30 days that is the better choice. Not a penny doubled every 30 days. That will work also but not very fast.
typo, sorry and thanks.
Michael Mann and his hockey stick models.
Exactly. That model would show the same result no matter what number you put in
"hide the decline"
(https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/30/hide-the-decline-worse-than-we-thought/)
"My guess is when they first did COVID modeling that showed a large percentage of the humans on Earth dying, they had the same statistical errors in modeling. "
I counter that the results presented weren't based on statistical errors. In my previous day job I performed a lot of data modeling, and the projected death models in Spring of 2020 were my first clue in that the COVID narrative was a BS psy-op. In my humble opinion, the graphs were the academic equivalent of a crayon drawing, with no data or published model that could be repeated and verified. The only documentation provided was a press release. I suspect they spent less than 30 min creating those graphs.
Still mad that I couldn't convince anyone else of this at the time. Fear had a tight grip on academia, and all reason had been tossed to the wind.
It probably wasn't just fear of the Kung flu but also what might happen to one's career if any unwarranted independent thinking was being contemplated.
I could never completely accept anything based just on models. Modeling is a method whether it applies to weather, the stock market or horse racing. And all models are wrong, but some are useful (George Box). The more variables, the more complexity, the higher the probability that something will be off -- by a lot. And jeez, the models are only looking at a system with an infinite number of variables and many of the variables are not predictable over time. Like volcanoes and solar activity. And there are unknowns that can't be accounted for because no one has figured out they are there. Like volcanoes on the ocean floor in the vast areas that haven't been surveyed. And as Roy Spencer points out, all the various models from the best labs are diverging over time. If the predictions were accurate the various models would be converging. From day 1, I was skeptical and I find the willingness of so many to go along with all this deeply depressing.
Not to mention that they are just plain stupid for the most part : ) We are now to the point of shutting down the CA government with emergency orders over rainstorms. Sunny and 75 and everyone got a day off. These clowns are licking their chops to put out masking and shutdown orders once again.
Great post Mr Carter! Grifters have got to grift, like sharks have to swim.
solutions are about enabling centralized planners to have more control over resources so they can tell you what to do.
Socialism - communism
Race to the bottom
I just saw a post Glenn / Instapundit made of someone lamenting that there are people who don't go to college! The horror....
It did mention that people running the country all end up coming form the same universities, and then intermarry. It's interesting that many Ivy (particularly Harvard) grads I have met want tell tell you where they went to school in the first 60 seconds. Those most included to do this seems to have a hubris and naiveté that is astonishing.
Now if these folks do get to start running a part of the country, and they just aren't very good, it will create problems. And this is worse since they always seem to fail upward into a better paying position -- political loyalty is more important than competence. Then if their kids, similarly, ahem, privileged, get into a similar job, we start getting more and more levels of misunderstanding of reality. Because they have been insulated from it. It is a set of people who base their cosmology entirely on theory (surrounded by political protection), rather than a straight on confrontation of reality. People who have worked dangerous jobs tend to get "it", even if later they become intellectuals/professors. (cf: Telluride Institute)
It's the bullwhip effect for an entire society. A group of individuals who ignore feedback.
How each of us makes micro decisions influence's our entire life. Each choice matters. Same is true for the country as a whole. And if you make enough bad choices, bad things happen. Sometimes very bad things. That's why it is important for those making decisions for the rest of us (or for whomever they are responsible) to viscerally understand the effects of their choices. And the best way for them to understand is to have had them be in places where they were physically threatened. That might be the military, but it might just mean doing roofing.
Spending a summer doing your SAT prep class and your climbing trip to France is not it.
It is a physical as well as a financial effect.
It’s why cars rear end in a long line when the first stops suddenly… Assume a line of cars all equally spaced, and identical reaction times not equal to zero. The first the lag in response time, even a miniscule one, can result in a collision with each car behind the lead being just a bit close to the one in front of the until collision.
Ditto cycling in a peloton. The guys at the back have to brake hard, then jump on it to catch up at ache slow down. So ride at the front (Ref: Bicycle Road Racking, Borysewicz.)
Being at the front is pretty good life advice in general.
And, if you follow the models with big errors, we will all crash in a big heap at the back of the peoloton.
Math is hard. That's their excuse. If everyone believes that, the grift becomes easy.