Mr. Carter. I offer a different view of the future. What if this year is the first of several or many like it? What if the US of Gay has peaked? I know, I know, never bet against America. But America has been making some awfully bad policy and societal decisions of late.
Just one that I see as a bell weather. All three of the Big Three automakers, Ford, GM and whoever owns Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep/Ram these days, have gone all in on "ALL ELECTRIC". 100%. This is madness and will lead to BK's out the ying yang. And yet, here we are.
This is just one example of folks doing things that clearly make no sense. For what? Approval? Great but what about profits.
Toyota has wisely said publicly what everyone knows privately. Gas and diesel will be around for a very long time.
Another example. Our leaders and elite are clearly doing everything they can to eliminate the middle class. And there is no one, ok very few, who are fighting for us in the middle class. It just seems very few folks see what is going on. Most folks are just on auto pilot thinking things will be like they always have been.
I don't see it that way. Without my faith in Christ it would be too much to bear. Bear. See what I did there to end my comment? Bear market? I crack myself up.
Brian's scatter plot is dramatic. Do his total-return numbers account for inflation? My source for S&P 500 return says -18% for 2022, which looks like where his point is, but I don't think my number is inflation-adjusted.
When I plot my data (which uses the Barclays Bond Aggregate return rather than Bloomberg) as Brian did, but adjusted for inflation, I see three other years in the lower-left quadrant: 1981 (-15.05, -4.09; inflation 10.35%) 2018 (-6.67, -0.05; inflation 2.44%), and 1994 (-1.28, -5.53; inflation 2.61%).
2022 is still an outlier, of course: worse stock *and* bond numbers than any of the other three, and at least twice the distance from (0,0) as even the terrible year 1981.
The Fed is also shrinking its balance sheet by $95 billion/month. The balance sheet has grown from 900 billion in 2007 to $9 trillion at the start of the pandemic. We tend to forget that the Fed's balance sheet is also a monetary tool. This article from the Fed describes how they use their balance sheet and what it means for the economy. https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2022/q3_federal_reserve
Mr. Carter. I offer a different view of the future. What if this year is the first of several or many like it? What if the US of Gay has peaked? I know, I know, never bet against America. But America has been making some awfully bad policy and societal decisions of late.
Just one that I see as a bell weather. All three of the Big Three automakers, Ford, GM and whoever owns Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep/Ram these days, have gone all in on "ALL ELECTRIC". 100%. This is madness and will lead to BK's out the ying yang. And yet, here we are.
This is just one example of folks doing things that clearly make no sense. For what? Approval? Great but what about profits.
Toyota has wisely said publicly what everyone knows privately. Gas and diesel will be around for a very long time.
Another example. Our leaders and elite are clearly doing everything they can to eliminate the middle class. And there is no one, ok very few, who are fighting for us in the middle class. It just seems very few folks see what is going on. Most folks are just on auto pilot thinking things will be like they always have been.
I don't see it that way. Without my faith in Christ it would be too much to bear. Bear. See what I did there to end my comment? Bear market? I crack myself up.
Brian's scatter plot is dramatic. Do his total-return numbers account for inflation? My source for S&P 500 return says -18% for 2022, which looks like where his point is, but I don't think my number is inflation-adjusted.
When I plot my data (which uses the Barclays Bond Aggregate return rather than Bloomberg) as Brian did, but adjusted for inflation, I see three other years in the lower-left quadrant: 1981 (-15.05, -4.09; inflation 10.35%) 2018 (-6.67, -0.05; inflation 2.44%), and 1994 (-1.28, -5.53; inflation 2.61%).
2022 is still an outlier, of course: worse stock *and* bond numbers than any of the other three, and at least twice the distance from (0,0) as even the terrible year 1981.
Wouldn’t you have to execute this trade using the SOFR? I thought euros were going away this summer?
The Fed is also shrinking its balance sheet by $95 billion/month. The balance sheet has grown from 900 billion in 2007 to $9 trillion at the start of the pandemic. We tend to forget that the Fed's balance sheet is also a monetary tool. This article from the Fed describes how they use their balance sheet and what it means for the economy. https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2022/q3_federal_reserve
87 ticks - sounds like a whisper?