Mr. Carter. I offer a different view of the future. What if this year is the first of several or many like it? What if the US of Gay has peaked? I know, I know, never bet against America. But America has been making some awfully bad policy and societal decisions of late.
Just one that I see as a bell weather. All three of the Big Three automakers, Ford, GM and whoever owns Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep/Ram these days, have gone all in on "ALL ELECTRIC". 100%. This is madness and will lead to BK's out the ying yang. And yet, here we are.
This is just one example of folks doing things that clearly make no sense. For what? Approval? Great but what about profits.
Toyota has wisely said publicly what everyone knows privately. Gas and diesel will be around for a very long time.
Another example. Our leaders and elite are clearly doing everything they can to eliminate the middle class. And there is no one, ok very few, who are fighting for us in the middle class. It just seems very few folks see what is going on. Most folks are just on auto pilot thinking things will be like they always have been.
I don't see it that way. Without my faith in Christ it would be too much to bear. Bear. See what I did there to end my comment? Bear market? I crack myself up.
I think we have a lot of terrible policies. Nowhere is perfect. But, we have a lot of people that are embedded with the DNA gene of working or being innovative, so there is hope. My guess is the stock market is topsy turvy this year but will end in the green.
Brian's scatter plot is dramatic. Do his total-return numbers account for inflation? My source for S&P 500 return says -18% for 2022, which looks like where his point is, but I don't think my number is inflation-adjusted.
When I plot my data (which uses the Barclays Bond Aggregate return rather than Bloomberg) as Brian did, but adjusted for inflation, I see three other years in the lower-left quadrant: 1981 (-15.05, -4.09; inflation 10.35%) 2018 (-6.67, -0.05; inflation 2.44%), and 1994 (-1.28, -5.53; inflation 2.61%).
2022 is still an outlier, of course: worse stock *and* bond numbers than any of the other three, and at least twice the distance from (0,0) as even the terrible year 1981.
I don't know, but I am going to assume the scatter plot didn't account for inflation as you point out. Interesting the years that were there in your plot. 1981, first year of Reagan, Carter hangover. 1994, first year of the Republican Congress in a long long long time. 2018, uncertainty with Trump, and the midterms as Democrats took control of Congress. Would have to do deeper dives to understand what else was going on.
Since I don't know exactly what the Bloomberg number is tracking or how far back it goes, I also did the same inflation-adjusted plot using SP500 return vs 10-yr T-Bond return, which I have going back to 1928. 2022 is still a clear outlier, but 1974 and 1937 give it a run for its money, with smaller bond losses but much bigger stock losses.
1974 was a year with 11% inflation and an unadjusted stock loss of 25.9%, both worse than 2022. T-Bonds "returned" 1.99% but inflation swamped that.
1937 had modest inflation of 3.73%, but it still swamped the T-Bond gain of 1.38%. It was just salt in the wound of a stock loss of 35.34%.
In any event, it's still grounds to hope that 2023 will be better. Or at least different.
The Fed is also shrinking its balance sheet by $95 billion/month. The balance sheet has grown from 900 billion in 2007 to $9 trillion at the start of the pandemic. We tend to forget that the Fed's balance sheet is also a monetary tool. This article from the Fed describes how they use their balance sheet and what it means for the economy. https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2022/q3_federal_reserve
Mr. Carter. I offer a different view of the future. What if this year is the first of several or many like it? What if the US of Gay has peaked? I know, I know, never bet against America. But America has been making some awfully bad policy and societal decisions of late.
Just one that I see as a bell weather. All three of the Big Three automakers, Ford, GM and whoever owns Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep/Ram these days, have gone all in on "ALL ELECTRIC". 100%. This is madness and will lead to BK's out the ying yang. And yet, here we are.
This is just one example of folks doing things that clearly make no sense. For what? Approval? Great but what about profits.
Toyota has wisely said publicly what everyone knows privately. Gas and diesel will be around for a very long time.
Another example. Our leaders and elite are clearly doing everything they can to eliminate the middle class. And there is no one, ok very few, who are fighting for us in the middle class. It just seems very few folks see what is going on. Most folks are just on auto pilot thinking things will be like they always have been.
I don't see it that way. Without my faith in Christ it would be too much to bear. Bear. See what I did there to end my comment? Bear market? I crack myself up.
I think we have a lot of terrible policies. Nowhere is perfect. But, we have a lot of people that are embedded with the DNA gene of working or being innovative, so there is hope. My guess is the stock market is topsy turvy this year but will end in the green.
Brian's scatter plot is dramatic. Do his total-return numbers account for inflation? My source for S&P 500 return says -18% for 2022, which looks like where his point is, but I don't think my number is inflation-adjusted.
When I plot my data (which uses the Barclays Bond Aggregate return rather than Bloomberg) as Brian did, but adjusted for inflation, I see three other years in the lower-left quadrant: 1981 (-15.05, -4.09; inflation 10.35%) 2018 (-6.67, -0.05; inflation 2.44%), and 1994 (-1.28, -5.53; inflation 2.61%).
2022 is still an outlier, of course: worse stock *and* bond numbers than any of the other three, and at least twice the distance from (0,0) as even the terrible year 1981.
I don't know, but I am going to assume the scatter plot didn't account for inflation as you point out. Interesting the years that were there in your plot. 1981, first year of Reagan, Carter hangover. 1994, first year of the Republican Congress in a long long long time. 2018, uncertainty with Trump, and the midterms as Democrats took control of Congress. Would have to do deeper dives to understand what else was going on.
Since I don't know exactly what the Bloomberg number is tracking or how far back it goes, I also did the same inflation-adjusted plot using SP500 return vs 10-yr T-Bond return, which I have going back to 1928. 2022 is still a clear outlier, but 1974 and 1937 give it a run for its money, with smaller bond losses but much bigger stock losses.
1974 was a year with 11% inflation and an unadjusted stock loss of 25.9%, both worse than 2022. T-Bonds "returned" 1.99% but inflation swamped that.
1937 had modest inflation of 3.73%, but it still swamped the T-Bond gain of 1.38%. It was just salt in the wound of a stock loss of 35.34%.
In any event, it's still grounds to hope that 2023 will be better. Or at least different.
that's good data!
Wouldn’t you have to execute this trade using the SOFR? I thought euros were going away this summer?
The Fed is also shrinking its balance sheet by $95 billion/month. The balance sheet has grown from 900 billion in 2007 to $9 trillion at the start of the pandemic. We tend to forget that the Fed's balance sheet is also a monetary tool. This article from the Fed describes how they use their balance sheet and what it means for the economy. https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2022/q3_federal_reserve
87 ticks - sounds like a whisper?