Re: Doug Burgum whom you mentioned above. I interviewed hime for the Epoch Times during the presidential derby. Like many I had barely heard of him. Turns out he's a standup guy with a solid business background outside politics. He's worthy of consideration for president in 2028.
99.9% of the time, bad news for Democrats means good news for Americans.
Where I live, eggs at Costco are roughly $4.50/dozen. Costco tends to be lower than the national average, and I don't know what my local grocers are charging. I know they're higher to begin with, so I don't bother checking.
"If you think a President controls the price of eggs in the economy, you might not want to be opining on the economy. [...] Slaying a lot of egg-laying hens creates a scarcity of eggs, and prices go up"
Well.... who ordered all the chickens be slayed, and who do they ultimately report to?
This was not a autonomous market response, and it was not a friendly suggestion. Farmers were ORDERED to kill their layers by the USDA, a branch of the US government.
The leader of which is appointed by and reports to the president.
Just like you predicted, Mr Carter. From Fidelity's Newsfeed, "Wall St opens higher as inflation cools, but slowdown fears loom", Reuters - 9:35 AM ET 3/12/2025. There's more, of course, now in the same vein.
Great piece and, yes, markets like the listed signals.
"I would like to see the cabinet secretaries start to deregulate aggressively." Just like in 2017 he has a full time staff whittling regulations at a 10:1 ratio. He has a full year of legal deregulation.
Massie: I love the guy, but we need the CR to get to reconciliation. Massie 'stands tall' except for past CR's. Trump knows that democrats want and need a shutdown to stop his agenda(as much as I would like a shutdown).
The UniParty is always at play here and republicans like their spending too.
The financial markets (and just about everybody else) does not like uncertainty. It will be interesting to see where we will be in six months as things settle down and the federal government's FY 2026 budget is passed...probably before the budget years ends on September 30th.
Yup. I always said, if the commies get overthrown in China, the market will tank even if they are replaced by the most ardent capitalists in the world.
Question, though, don't you think the market is factoring in the slowdown in China (not to mention the ongoing issues with their property market, which holds wealth for all but the top tier of Chinese)?
While I support the Trump administration's focus on China as a primary adversary, seems to me that China has some massive issues, not least of which is the demographic and low birth rates plaguing most of the world. The one-child policy has produced a lopsided population; with attendant affects on marriage prospects.
Looking at other developed economies it seems clear that the best game in town is still the US, despite the indigestion we are experiencing as we wring out the waste and overspending that has been prevalent for quite awhile.
Wassup with the Bond market? I could understand if Treasuries had their flight to quality bid pulled on the stock rally, despite CPI, but Bond futures are already 3pts lower than last Tuesday's swing high. (yield, low)
It seems as if in the weird ying-yang of assets vs fixed income, stocks are happier right now if yields slip higher on growth, than if credit markets rally on recession fears.
Agreed on all points, especially picking a dumb fight with Massie, about which I was ranting on X yesterday. Besides encouraging more small gov libertarian spirits into the MAGA camp (I don't really consider it 'Republican' since most Rs are actually pure Uniparty), the CR works against many elements of the radical massive change DOGE is effecting (constitutionally thru Depts/Agencies) right now.
As well, or even more so, we were promised transparency on budgets and time to review. What exactly was traded off against what else, between the House and Senate versions, during reconciliation? We'll have to experience the aftermath to know what was in it. Very bad form for the new administration. I don't trust Congress one little bit (including Massie); let us see the final format bills and budgets before this full-court press to pass things "urgently".
The signals against business-as-usual need to be stronger and very much more consistent.
The talking point is that given the small majority in the House, and less than 60 R Senators, the CR was the only option. Like you, I would much prefer a real budget with allocations for each area (iirc that hasn't been the case since the 90's).
OTOH, supposedly the DOGE (and other) savings will be in place for the Sept budget. Certainly cuts in staffing are a decent start.
Reality is that we have a highly divided populace which is reflected in a divided Congress. We'll see if Trump and his team can pull off the miracle later this year. For sure the federal debt cannot continue to increase if we want to remain sound.
Re: Doug Burgum whom you mentioned above. I interviewed hime for the Epoch Times during the presidential derby. Like many I had barely heard of him. Turns out he's a standup guy with a solid business background outside politics. He's worthy of consideration for president in 2028.
99.9% of the time, bad news for Democrats means good news for Americans.
Where I live, eggs at Costco are roughly $4.50/dozen. Costco tends to be lower than the national average, and I don't know what my local grocers are charging. I know they're higher to begin with, so I don't bother checking.
"If you think a President controls the price of eggs in the economy, you might not want to be opining on the economy. [...] Slaying a lot of egg-laying hens creates a scarcity of eggs, and prices go up"
Well.... who ordered all the chickens be slayed, and who do they ultimately report to?
This was not a autonomous market response, and it was not a friendly suggestion. Farmers were ORDERED to kill their layers by the USDA, a branch of the US government.
The leader of which is appointed by and reports to the president.
Yes to this: “…it is high time the Libertarians integrate themselves into the Republican Party like the Communists did to the Democrats.”
I would like to hire you to be my Trading Psychologist. I know I probably can't afford you, so I'll have to settle for your substack for now!
Trading the tariff daily whiplash has been challenging and anxiety-inducing. Even minute to minute trades are not safe.
So when I read your sense of optimism, I'm reassured that my long-term trades will be ok.
Thank you!
Make diesel $1.75 again!
YES (I drive a Tesla and a Diesel)
Just like you predicted, Mr Carter. From Fidelity's Newsfeed, "Wall St opens higher as inflation cools, but slowdown fears loom", Reuters - 9:35 AM ET 3/12/2025. There's more, of course, now in the same vein.
BTW, another excellent post.
It's so predictable now isn't it?
Great piece and, yes, markets like the listed signals.
"I would like to see the cabinet secretaries start to deregulate aggressively." Just like in 2017 he has a full time staff whittling regulations at a 10:1 ratio. He has a full year of legal deregulation.
Massie: I love the guy, but we need the CR to get to reconciliation. Massie 'stands tall' except for past CR's. Trump knows that democrats want and need a shutdown to stop his agenda(as much as I would like a shutdown).
The UniParty is always at play here and republicans like their spending too.
I don't think Massie is part of the Uniparty
The financial markets (and just about everybody else) does not like uncertainty. It will be interesting to see where we will be in six months as things settle down and the federal government's FY 2026 budget is passed...probably before the budget years ends on September 30th.
Yup. I always said, if the commies get overthrown in China, the market will tank even if they are replaced by the most ardent capitalists in the world.
Question, though, don't you think the market is factoring in the slowdown in China (not to mention the ongoing issues with their property market, which holds wealth for all but the top tier of Chinese)?
While I support the Trump administration's focus on China as a primary adversary, seems to me that China has some massive issues, not least of which is the demographic and low birth rates plaguing most of the world. The one-child policy has produced a lopsided population; with attendant affects on marriage prospects.
Looking at other developed economies it seems clear that the best game in town is still the US, despite the indigestion we are experiencing as we wring out the waste and overspending that has been prevalent for quite awhile.
Wassup with the Bond market? I could understand if Treasuries had their flight to quality bid pulled on the stock rally, despite CPI, but Bond futures are already 3pts lower than last Tuesday's swing high. (yield, low)
It seems as if in the weird ying-yang of assets vs fixed income, stocks are happier right now if yields slip higher on growth, than if credit markets rally on recession fears.
Agreed on all points, especially picking a dumb fight with Massie, about which I was ranting on X yesterday. Besides encouraging more small gov libertarian spirits into the MAGA camp (I don't really consider it 'Republican' since most Rs are actually pure Uniparty), the CR works against many elements of the radical massive change DOGE is effecting (constitutionally thru Depts/Agencies) right now.
As well, or even more so, we were promised transparency on budgets and time to review. What exactly was traded off against what else, between the House and Senate versions, during reconciliation? We'll have to experience the aftermath to know what was in it. Very bad form for the new administration. I don't trust Congress one little bit (including Massie); let us see the final format bills and budgets before this full-court press to pass things "urgently".
The signals against business-as-usual need to be stronger and very much more consistent.
The talking point is that given the small majority in the House, and less than 60 R Senators, the CR was the only option. Like you, I would much prefer a real budget with allocations for each area (iirc that hasn't been the case since the 90's).
OTOH, supposedly the DOGE (and other) savings will be in place for the Sept budget. Certainly cuts in staffing are a decent start.
Reality is that we have a highly divided populace which is reflected in a divided Congress. We'll see if Trump and his team can pull off the miracle later this year. For sure the federal debt cannot continue to increase if we want to remain sound.