Interesting, I took a recent peek at the $GE_F contract. Eurodollar futures are down big, .20 ticks or more. That's a huge move. Bond futures on their highs. Yield curve inversion. This is where short term interest approaches the rate of long term interest....which is a recession and a function of the Joe Biden Economy. Math and economics suck for the Marxists
If instead of interest rate hikes, the fed chose instead an auction program to reduce the size of its balance sheet to reduce cash outstanding. Say goal to reduce M2 back to pre 2019 levels - around 4 trillion. Possible and time frame? Would this crush the primary dealers? Would the losses exceed the past 10 year of treasury transfers?
I don't know. They do open market operations every day, so it is certainly possible. they also have said they want to reduce the size of their balance sheet. I don't think it is possible to do it quickly. It will take years.
Interesting, I took a recent peek at the $GE_F contract. Eurodollar futures are down big, .20 ticks or more. That's a huge move. Bond futures on their highs. Yield curve inversion. This is where short term interest approaches the rate of long term interest....which is a recession and a function of the Joe Biden Economy. Math and economics suck for the Marxists
If instead of interest rate hikes, the fed chose instead an auction program to reduce the size of its balance sheet to reduce cash outstanding. Say goal to reduce M2 back to pre 2019 levels - around 4 trillion. Possible and time frame? Would this crush the primary dealers? Would the losses exceed the past 10 year of treasury transfers?
I don't know. They do open market operations every day, so it is certainly possible. they also have said they want to reduce the size of their balance sheet. I don't think it is possible to do it quickly. It will take years.
Thoughts on a 1% bump by the Fed this month? I'm thinking it is pretty likely after today's data.
Feels like 1% would be too much. I think they have to raise again.
The CPI is an amusing way to measure inflation. Real “average” inflation is at least 15 and probably closer to 20%
How are you measuring it?