Is This Something?

Tax Receipts Down

See the little downward hook at the end of this chart. That shows tax receipts in the first quarter of 2023. They are down. Down means there is less economic activity. Down means less money is being made. You can see in other points on the graph, “down” led to a recession.

We had a recession early in Joe Biden’s term though the press and radically normative economists deny it. A couple of negative quarters of GDP growth is a recession. We have rebounded, but it would not surprise me to see us slip into another one. Of course, you always see it in the rearview mirror since data takes time to get compiled and reported but there are signs.

Tax receipts are one sign. The recent JOLTS number was another. Chicago PMI was another.

From the JOLTS link:

Remember – we have the May NFP report out on Friday and then the PPI, CPI and FOMC announcement next Tuesday and Wednesday – so get ready for a boatload of inflation related data points – that will surely drive the next part of the conversation.

We have inflation. Now employment is getting brittle. That’s stagflation.

I am turning bearish on the S+P 500 and bullish on interest rates easing. My permabear friends are stirring.