11 Comments
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Tom Elia's avatar

I hate writing this, but we should rightly be worried about stagflation. Nasty stuff.

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Scott Garl's avatar

I'm worried a bit by the NVDA monthly chart. Sure, they make a bunch of money, and are the kingpin of AI buzz, but this kind of extension is ripe for a 100% pullback. That, or it keeps going up, lol.

The silicon valley bubble continues with ferociousness.

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

Saw a stat that the lion's share of the S+P rally was due to one stock, NVDA.....

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Scott Garl's avatar

Yes, breathtaking skyrocket. But GME been on a roll too, up 21% today, lol.

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Tom Eckert's avatar

I don't know about data in the "rear view mirror" but it's been feeling like a recession since the 2020 "election"! Great observations Mr Carter. What did Dylan say? "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows!"

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Mitch Weiner's avatar

Market sell-off, yes, maybe even big later today.

Rate cuts soon, no. You've even had a Fed official saying a rate hike is not out of the realm of possibility. I seriously doubt that will occur, but I don't see any rate cut and I've been saying that for over a year and I keep saying the Wall Street firms are full of crap and they were just trying to pump the stock market up, because look how many brokerage firms were calling for four, five or six rate cuts(yes, you Morgan Stanley LOL) just 6 months ago and then revised it downward to three and then to two and then to one and now none and now the clamoring once again is "okay, well we know we won't get one in the summer, but maybe in September". Well yeah, in time for the freaking election. 😄

This is all propaganda designed to justify a rate cut in September, a month and a half before the election. They really do think we're stupid. Powell and this Federal reserve will bow down to the crooked Democrats in DC and give in to political pressure and it probably won't make a damn bit of difference what the number show, because they will find some justification for it.

That is nauseating.

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

I was never in the rate cut camp going back to last December. The Keynsians on the Fed Board though will look at a slowing economy and ignore employment numbers to cut rates I think. Remember, they have a gigantic balance sheet that's underwater as well.

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Rascal Nick Of's avatar

There’s no way interest rates come down unless unemployment goes up because inflation is not coming down anytime soon. Especially if they lower interest rates. We are nearing the end stage of this 23-year fiscal farce. And Biden is firing missiles into Russia. Fun times ahead. Buckle up.

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jdm's avatar

Stagflation. Recessions. The Big Brains in the government who manage finances and the economy now have much better tools. You think it's a coincidence it's called Modern Monetary Theory? Government doesn't need taxes, it just has to print more money (to get through the first Tuesday in November).

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Jeffrey Carter's avatar

https://www.ft.com/content/97543fe0-32cb-4427-a1d2-aac2ea5180fc ECB cuts rates, first time in five years. Makes US Dollar stronger and many don't think a strong dollar is a good idea

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Mike Ness's avatar

It is something....I think my old man would have said something about some rubber, a road those two things getting together.

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