1. Commercial real estate and residential real estate are two entirely different businesses. Never, ever forget that.
2. Commercial real estate is multi-faceted -- land, improved land, office, retail, apartments, hotels, industrial, warehouses, storage, specialty real estate of all kinds.
3. Residential real estate is only single family or condo owner occupied real estate.
Any demand driven real estate will do fine. It will capture every % point of inflation and it will capture every bit of demand growth.
The rest of it is a little dicey as it is driven by a different type of demand and that is based on sentiment.
When the dentists/VCs get in, get out.
When the institutions get out, get in.
There will be fortunes made in bad times in real estate as it is an asset that lasts for 100s of years and will bridge any time period. It is a long term asset and it can be highly illiquid.
If you look at the dollar in terms of what products & services it will buy, it is losing value: that is inflation. But if you look at it in terms of what other major currencies it will buy, it is doing quite well. An interesting disconnect.
This will be market drop #4 for me (2000, 2008, 2020)... oh, wait, I went through the 1987 Black Monday too (but I wasn't really invested then). Anyway, in the past I was always frustrated by a lack of cash to buy the "bargains". So, I tried to prepare a bit better for this coming one.
I know the next year or so will be brutal, but I tend to invest defensively all the time. Consumer staples, oil/gas (pipelines especially), gravel, utilities. Fiscally healthy. Furthermore, I'm a buy'n'hold guy so some of my holdings can fall 50% without it eating into my cap gains. Meanwhile they will be paying dividends.
MMT loons are running the White House right along side some woke Marxists. We need a midterm smack-down to re-adjust some of this crazy ahead of the 2024 election. #RonDeSantis to the rescue?
Great piece as usual CR. I have a great alternative for those IRA assets you don't want to touch until you have to start RMDs at 70 1/2. A fixed index annuity where you can participate in the market while protecting the downside. Some have a Long Term Care rider where you can double your benefit base should you need LTC or require hospitalization for a disease. One strategy is you can get 50% of the S & P gains and guarantee your principal should the market fall. If you or your readers are interested I would be glad to discuss further.
Ok, let's see how this lands. The only time WFB, Jr lost his temper in public was when in a debate with Gore Vidal (on "Firing Line" I think) Vidal called Buckley a "crypto-Nazi" and Bill responded by calling Vidal a "queer" (accurate as far as it went) and threatened to "sock him in the goddammed face".
A word about real estate:
1. Commercial real estate and residential real estate are two entirely different businesses. Never, ever forget that.
2. Commercial real estate is multi-faceted -- land, improved land, office, retail, apartments, hotels, industrial, warehouses, storage, specialty real estate of all kinds.
3. Residential real estate is only single family or condo owner occupied real estate.
Any demand driven real estate will do fine. It will capture every % point of inflation and it will capture every bit of demand growth.
The rest of it is a little dicey as it is driven by a different type of demand and that is based on sentiment.
When the dentists/VCs get in, get out.
When the institutions get out, get in.
There will be fortunes made in bad times in real estate as it is an asset that lasts for 100s of years and will bridge any time period. It is a long term asset and it can be highly illiquid.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
If you look at the dollar in terms of what products & services it will buy, it is losing value: that is inflation. But if you look at it in terms of what other major currencies it will buy, it is doing quite well. An interesting disconnect.
This analysis
https://mises.org/wire/why-yen-fell-while-dollar-rallied
explains the disconnect largely in terms of the carry trade.
This will be market drop #4 for me (2000, 2008, 2020)... oh, wait, I went through the 1987 Black Monday too (but I wasn't really invested then). Anyway, in the past I was always frustrated by a lack of cash to buy the "bargains". So, I tried to prepare a bit better for this coming one.
I know the next year or so will be brutal, but I tend to invest defensively all the time. Consumer staples, oil/gas (pipelines especially), gravel, utilities. Fiscally healthy. Furthermore, I'm a buy'n'hold guy so some of my holdings can fall 50% without it eating into my cap gains. Meanwhile they will be paying dividends.
Hunker down and wait it out.
MMT loons are running the White House right along side some woke Marxists. We need a midterm smack-down to re-adjust some of this crazy ahead of the 2024 election. #RonDeSantis to the rescue?
Great piece as usual CR. I have a great alternative for those IRA assets you don't want to touch until you have to start RMDs at 70 1/2. A fixed index annuity where you can participate in the market while protecting the downside. Some have a Long Term Care rider where you can double your benefit base should you need LTC or require hospitalization for a disease. One strategy is you can get 50% of the S & P gains and guarantee your principal should the market fall. If you or your readers are interested I would be glad to discuss further.
Mike@ourhousewealth.com
Thanks
There is not a single thing this admin is currently doing that will dampen inflation.
There are a great number of current policies that will cause, exacerbate, and accelerate inflation.
This admin truly has nobody who cares about or who knows anything about how to manage the economy. Nobody.
This admin is headed down a number of paths that will be truly disastrous -- Titanic sinking kind of disastrous.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Ok, let's see how this lands. The only time WFB, Jr lost his temper in public was when in a debate with Gore Vidal (on "Firing Line" I think) Vidal called Buckley a "crypto-Nazi" and Bill responded by calling Vidal a "queer" (accurate as far as it went) and threatened to "sock him in the goddammed face".
So, there is my take on "Crypto".
Happy Mother's Day everyone.