The Fed has just over 400 economists working in Washington DC and just under 400 working at the regional Feds, for a national total of 785. That seems to be way too many economists employed for an organization that is always late to respond. Maybe DOGE should ask each economist “what is it that you do around here?”
Do any of these economists track the Feds’ past performance to explain why the Fed was late or wrong? Maybe a “how are we doing?” section should be part of their regular reports.
It seems like the Fed should try using half the number of economists that they currently have and see how that goes. If half the economists were given the Summer off, would anyone notice?
I love that! Maybe there should be a Retired Trader Fed Advisory Board.
With all that DOGE has exposed, I just think that every government bureaucracy has to be capped at a very small number of employees to minimize the damage that they do.
Jeff u traded long enough to know the fed always goes to the extreme. They leave rates to high or to low for longer then they should. And about the downgrade it is all political. Why didn’t they do it durning brain dead’s term.
I'm beginning to wonder if JPow's keeping his powder dry for the coming P/E bubble implosion. Saving room in The Curve for what's going to be needed, later. Gated exits are never a good sign for investor cash use. Personally, I think JPow's being quite prudent by sitting on his hands. Stability in rates can be used for planning purposes, starting an ease cycle would send a lot of misinterpreted messages to The "No Money Down, Now!" crowd just when they've "risk adjusted" for a "higher, for longer" environment. Just my two.
The correlation between unemployment and inflation is spurious. The past 3 decades we've seen robust job growth with negligible inflation, but earlier, in the 70's-early 80's, inflation and unemployment went hand in hand. Personally, I think inflation is sticky and believe it's irresponsible for the Fed to cut while inflation is still above target. Markets aren't dumb, and there's a reason why Bonds can't rally substantially, or even hold rallies off the key 5% level. IMHO, Bond yields and unemployment are headed a bit higher while assets are nowheresville.
Let’s be honest , ML and AI could replace and be more efficient at data analysis than 750 Fed employees -maybe we need to start seeing cuts there first
If its all true that Trump has actually negotiated deals with nations and multi-nationals that will bring in trillions of investment to the US and that the tariff negotiations go somewhat in our favor, and oil prices stay low or go lower, which all seem
reasonably likely, outside of some black swan event, employment should improve and they they wont have good reasons to cut rates.
One of you financial titans was on CNBC last month admitting that Powell hates Trump...
How did we put the fate of the nation in one person controlling the money supply?!
Dave Brat at @brateconomics on X and GETTR show the destruction of ourselves since French warships sat off the coast of NY in 1971 to audit our gold...
They may be "Neo-K", but JPow appears to have coopted the power of the Board into the Chair* and acts awfully Austrian with his "patience". *Too much power in one person CAN be a problem. I'm undecided whether "This Time It's Different.".
The Fed has just over 400 economists working in Washington DC and just under 400 working at the regional Feds, for a national total of 785. That seems to be way too many economists employed for an organization that is always late to respond. Maybe DOGE should ask each economist “what is it that you do around here?”
Do any of these economists track the Feds’ past performance to explain why the Fed was late or wrong? Maybe a “how are we doing?” section should be part of their regular reports.
It seems like the Fed should try using half the number of economists that they currently have and see how that goes. If half the economists were given the Summer off, would anyone notice?
If they would only hire one seasoned bond trader....could you imagine!
I love that! Maybe there should be a Retired Trader Fed Advisory Board.
With all that DOGE has exposed, I just think that every government bureaucracy has to be capped at a very small number of employees to minimize the damage that they do.
Jeff u traded long enough to know the fed always goes to the extreme. They leave rates to high or to low for longer then they should. And about the downgrade it is all political. Why didn’t they do it durning brain dead’s term.
The Fed is implicated in most if not all of our recessions in the past 40 years. Always late and often targeting the wrong issue.
For that matter our financial regulatory apparatus is similarly inapt.
I'm beginning to wonder if JPow's keeping his powder dry for the coming P/E bubble implosion. Saving room in The Curve for what's going to be needed, later. Gated exits are never a good sign for investor cash use. Personally, I think JPow's being quite prudent by sitting on his hands. Stability in rates can be used for planning purposes, starting an ease cycle would send a lot of misinterpreted messages to The "No Money Down, Now!" crowd just when they've "risk adjusted" for a "higher, for longer" environment. Just my two.
The correlation between unemployment and inflation is spurious. The past 3 decades we've seen robust job growth with negligible inflation, but earlier, in the 70's-early 80's, inflation and unemployment went hand in hand. Personally, I think inflation is sticky and believe it's irresponsible for the Fed to cut while inflation is still above target. Markets aren't dumb, and there's a reason why Bonds can't rally substantially, or even hold rallies off the key 5% level. IMHO, Bond yields and unemployment are headed a bit higher while assets are nowheresville.
I think they will cut in July
Fed funds sb at 3% max
Fed has been behind the curve for over 30 years
But it will help Trump! So they won’t…
I wish I did not think it was really that simple ... But I do.
Let’s be honest , ML and AI could replace and be more efficient at data analysis than 750 Fed employees -maybe we need to start seeing cuts there first
The housing market is crapping out because 'boomers' are selling off their unprofitable AirBnBs.
BAHAHAHAHA!!!
If its all true that Trump has actually negotiated deals with nations and multi-nationals that will bring in trillions of investment to the US and that the tariff negotiations go somewhat in our favor, and oil prices stay low or go lower, which all seem
reasonably likely, outside of some black swan event, employment should improve and they they wont have good reasons to cut rates.
I agree.
One of you financial titans was on CNBC last month admitting that Powell hates Trump...
How did we put the fate of the nation in one person controlling the money supply?!
Dave Brat at @brateconomics on X and GETTR show the destruction of ourselves since French warships sat off the coast of NY in 1971 to audit our gold...
It is a Fed Board. They get consensus. Problem is, most of them are neo Keynesians
I know, but like Melinda says below...
Keynesian = government ownership of the economy :-D
They may be "Neo-K", but JPow appears to have coopted the power of the Board into the Chair* and acts awfully Austrian with his "patience". *Too much power in one person CAN be a problem. I'm undecided whether "This Time It's Different.".