A friend of mine wrote her MBA thesis on integrated oil companies and found out that these companies make $0.05 - $0.07 cents per gallon of gasoline sold. These companies also spending billions yearly on capex to try and keep gas prices low. They also spending millions-billions on local, state and federal excise taxes, and property taxes on their facilities and the gas stations that they own. Exxon Mobil in their 2012 10K on page 94 said that their income tax rate from 2010-2012 was 45%, 46% and 44%. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408813000011/xom10k2012.htm
Given that the last two-and-a-half years has truly revealed the nonsense that most people are willing to believe in the mainstream conversation, I'd say your suggestion would have no effect. Moreover, the notion that "they are spending less on capex now that the govt wants to run them out of business" is far too opaque for most people to even understand, much less believe.
There must be some malice involved to be so wrong on so many things. For instance, if at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the administration had said we'll worry about climate later, we need to produce more energy and expanded oil gas and nukes, the Russians would have seen a serious counter to their energy blackmail coming. And the situation would be much different and better. Wandering around asking KSA and Venezuela to produce more is just stupid especially when there is no refinery capacity. It's a clear sign that this administration is not serious about doing anything to help the average person.
Biden isn't as stupid as he pretends to be. HE'S DOING IT ALL DELIBERATELY. He's following the agenda laid out by Comrade Obama (or his puppeteers are doing it for him) and DOES NOT CARE that he's damaging the American economy and American power and American independence.
Ignore everything that he says, and look at what he and his administration are DOING. He's running the country into the ground on purpose, like those pilots (at least three of them) who have crashed their airplanes in deliberate acts of suicide.
You would be correct. More government interference is only going to make it all worse. But that is the liberal recipe and it seems to attract a lot of people who have little intelligence to argue. We can only hope for a red wave this November, and another that kicks Biden back to Delaware permanently.
I don't attribute much of what is happening to Biden. In my opinion he has sold himself to the highest bidder on the left in exchange for the White House. And, as a political science major with a concentration in international relations as well as a Chicago Booth grad, I can't help but observe the actions of the western democracies over the last 2 years and be highly receptive to the notion that much of what we are experiencing economically is being done on purpose.
You have to preface "Biden believes X" "or Biden thinks that" (paraphrased). He has no idea; he is a pure puppet; he is controlled and told what to say. We've never seen a weaker more worthless pres. IF there was a fair media his approval would be 20%. Of course, your solutions are perfect and the opposite will be done.
Always fun to see Craig Pirrong mentioned - I enjoyed his class at Booth.
Jeff, serious question: the Fed had been force-feeding trillions of liquidity into the system since 2008, but inflation really didn't take off until the past couple of years.
So what was the specific trigger that set off this specific spiral - COVID "relief"? The multi-week/month coma induced in normal economic activity to "flatten the curve"? The election of Biden and accompanying threat of "Christ, what will these g*ddamn fools do next"?
(I'd also ask why the 10 year Treasury yield has dropped 50+ bps in past three weeks - do people expect a rate cut with double-digit inflation??? - but the Treasury market is prob beyond any logic now.)
I think I'd blame Covid and supply chain disruptions first. Then, Biden because he changed course so strongly on energy and labor policy compared to Trump. Remember, the two most expensive inputs to production are labor, then energy.
For rates, I'd watch the short term interest rate curves, Eurodollars and Fed Funds. What you saw on that move was a curve inversion which is a sure sign of recession. I was going to sell some Eurodollars and hedge my mortgage. When the stock market tanked, I expected a flight to quality bid to hit interest rate markets. It didn't happen. I was shocked to see Eurodollars down 20-40 points in the front part of the curve in one day....
I think the young traders are going to learn some very hard lessons. I see a lot of dip buying right now. For commodities like meat, ranchers are cutting their herds right now. Meat should drop in price. My daughter bought prime beef at Costco yesterday for $15/lb, and I know it's usually $22 or so. That is not going to last. $30/lb beef might be coming by the end of the year or next year.
I would agree with your tipping points. I’m still puzzled by the labor staffing shortages continuing this long. My semi-rural county in North Carolina is larger in size than DuPage County but only has a population of 120,000. They just ran a job fair with 70 different companies offering 2000 open jobs with a starting pay of $19 per hour or more that they were having trouble filling. Are people just sitting at home on their sofas playing video games? The fact that these employers all had to get together to advertise their openings is telling. All these jobs are online where the younger generation spends all their time, yet no interest.
A friend of mine wrote her MBA thesis on integrated oil companies and found out that these companies make $0.05 - $0.07 cents per gallon of gasoline sold. These companies also spending billions yearly on capex to try and keep gas prices low. They also spending millions-billions on local, state and federal excise taxes, and property taxes on their facilities and the gas stations that they own. Exxon Mobil in their 2012 10K on page 94 said that their income tax rate from 2010-2012 was 45%, 46% and 44%. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408813000011/xom10k2012.htm
they are spending less on capex now that the govt wants to run them out of business
I wish someone in the industry would be persistently flooding the mainstream conversation with this concept.
Given that the last two-and-a-half years has truly revealed the nonsense that most people are willing to believe in the mainstream conversation, I'd say your suggestion would have no effect. Moreover, the notion that "they are spending less on capex now that the govt wants to run them out of business" is far too opaque for most people to even understand, much less believe.
There must be some malice involved to be so wrong on so many things. For instance, if at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the administration had said we'll worry about climate later, we need to produce more energy and expanded oil gas and nukes, the Russians would have seen a serious counter to their energy blackmail coming. And the situation would be much different and better. Wandering around asking KSA and Venezuela to produce more is just stupid especially when there is no refinery capacity. It's a clear sign that this administration is not serious about doing anything to help the average person.
Biden isn't as stupid as he pretends to be. HE'S DOING IT ALL DELIBERATELY. He's following the agenda laid out by Comrade Obama (or his puppeteers are doing it for him) and DOES NOT CARE that he's damaging the American economy and American power and American independence.
Ignore everything that he says, and look at what he and his administration are DOING. He's running the country into the ground on purpose, like those pilots (at least three of them) who have crashed their airplanes in deliberate acts of suicide.
You would be correct. More government interference is only going to make it all worse. But that is the liberal recipe and it seems to attract a lot of people who have little intelligence to argue. We can only hope for a red wave this November, and another that kicks Biden back to Delaware permanently.
I don't attribute much of what is happening to Biden. In my opinion he has sold himself to the highest bidder on the left in exchange for the White House. And, as a political science major with a concentration in international relations as well as a Chicago Booth grad, I can't help but observe the actions of the western democracies over the last 2 years and be highly receptive to the notion that much of what we are experiencing economically is being done on purpose.
You have to preface "Biden believes X" "or Biden thinks that" (paraphrased). He has no idea; he is a pure puppet; he is controlled and told what to say. We've never seen a weaker more worthless pres. IF there was a fair media his approval would be 20%. Of course, your solutions are perfect and the opposite will be done.
Yes, Biden is more of a Cyrano de Bergerac of a President, than President.
You forgot one other solution: financing and promotion of oil and gas extraction and refining.
Government shouldn't do that but banks and private equity should (if it's profitable)
Always fun to see Craig Pirrong mentioned - I enjoyed his class at Booth.
Jeff, serious question: the Fed had been force-feeding trillions of liquidity into the system since 2008, but inflation really didn't take off until the past couple of years.
So what was the specific trigger that set off this specific spiral - COVID "relief"? The multi-week/month coma induced in normal economic activity to "flatten the curve"? The election of Biden and accompanying threat of "Christ, what will these g*ddamn fools do next"?
(I'd also ask why the 10 year Treasury yield has dropped 50+ bps in past three weeks - do people expect a rate cut with double-digit inflation??? - but the Treasury market is prob beyond any logic now.)
I think I'd blame Covid and supply chain disruptions first. Then, Biden because he changed course so strongly on energy and labor policy compared to Trump. Remember, the two most expensive inputs to production are labor, then energy.
For rates, I'd watch the short term interest rate curves, Eurodollars and Fed Funds. What you saw on that move was a curve inversion which is a sure sign of recession. I was going to sell some Eurodollars and hedge my mortgage. When the stock market tanked, I expected a flight to quality bid to hit interest rate markets. It didn't happen. I was shocked to see Eurodollars down 20-40 points in the front part of the curve in one day....
I think the young traders are going to learn some very hard lessons. I see a lot of dip buying right now. For commodities like meat, ranchers are cutting their herds right now. Meat should drop in price. My daughter bought prime beef at Costco yesterday for $15/lb, and I know it's usually $22 or so. That is not going to last. $30/lb beef might be coming by the end of the year or next year.
I would agree with your tipping points. I’m still puzzled by the labor staffing shortages continuing this long. My semi-rural county in North Carolina is larger in size than DuPage County but only has a population of 120,000. They just ran a job fair with 70 different companies offering 2000 open jobs with a starting pay of $19 per hour or more that they were having trouble filling. Are people just sitting at home on their sofas playing video games? The fact that these employers all had to get together to advertise their openings is telling. All these jobs are online where the younger generation spends all their time, yet no interest.