Some Data

Good Night (not Great) for Conservatives

(I left this chart up. some data scientists are saying it is bad data. All of California’s vote is not in. If they update the chart after Cali’s data comes in, I will update the photo and leave both in place. Amazingly, in my home state of Nevada after polls closed we received a Clark County ballot dump and it put all the Democrats over the top. Maybe those votes are not fraudulent, but not counting them on election day and allowing ballots to be received up to three days post-election day isn’t giving constituents in Nevada that they have free, fair and transparent elections.)

Here is a chart of the popular vote over the last four elections.

Tell me again how the 2020 election wasn’t stolen.

Also congrats to the betting markets. They were right. Spare me your thoughts about “thinly traded”, or “outside the US”. All that tells me is you don’t understand how a market works.

Meanwhile, the Dow is screaming higher. I was wrong about that. I would have bought the rumor, sold the fact. Credit markets are tanking which means the cost of interest is going up. Bitcoin hit $75k, which is a reflection of Trump’s promise to enable crypto, not let Gary Gensler kill it.

More data:

Ann Selzer’s Iowa poll was +3 to Kamala Harris. Trump won Iowa by +14. She has said that “she will try to learn some things” but the truth is she sold herself out to Kamala. How many other people are just like her? There are enough to be sea grass in Ursula’s grotto. Enjoy a lifetime of purgatory.

If you follow Nate Silver, he was awfully wrong about Florida. A couple of months ago, he and VC Keith Rabois got into a spat on X over Florida.

The pollsters totally missed what was going on in the electorate this election. Totally missed it. I think they were colored by 2020 which was not good data to input, and they were colored by relying on abortion as the issue that got a lot of people to the polls. Abortion worked as an issue in 2022 because it was so new as a state issue and there was a lot of uncertainty about how it would play out. Two years later, people in America are comfortable with how it is playing out. The only people who aren’t comfortable are the mainstream media, the Democrats, and the pro-abortion people.

Remember, Kamala was going to blow up the filibuster in the Senate to pass a national abortion law that looked like Roe. What she didn’t think through was that the next time the Dems were in the minority, the Republicans could turn around repeal that law and write one of their own.

The way abortion is working its way through the states now is more stable and a great feature of a federalist government. We ought to do it with more policies and hopefully, it starts in the next administration.

The American people were 100% lied to by the press, and the government. Lied to about Covid. Lied to about George Floyd and BLM. Lied to about so many things that it would take reams of bytes to list them all here. The only place to find objective news these days is on the platform X. To get the news you need, you don’t need a TV or radio. You just need a phone.

The mainstream media is dead. Celebrity endorsements, dead. Media endorsements, dead. Podcasts and long-form objective nuance are in. The bankruptcy of formerly great print publications will accelerate. Jeff Bezos sees it and I am sure he is trying to figure out the best way forward for his paper, The Washington Post.

Playing class, victim, and identity politics is over. Trump put together a new coalition that has not been seen since FDR. DEI is done. Equity is done. Opportunity is in. Hopefully, suffering the consequences of your actions is returning too. Californians voted to hold criminals accountable for their actions. California Democrats didn’t want that to pass.

The mainstream media has lost its influence. Watch this clip. It is over. I love VC David Sacks’ idea of auctioning off CBS/NBC/ABC spectrum. They were given free spectrum back in the day because the government felt it was important to have the “fourth estate” transmit information to citizens. They have become so vile and are an arm of the most radical parts of the Democratic Party now they shouldn’t get free spectrum.

Auctioning it off will give the free market the power to decide where to best allocate the assets. Maybe a platform like Twitter should have them.

My friend Glenn Reynolds published some thoughts about the post-election which are worth reading. John Kass took a different path here.

If I were the Trump White House, I’d be stingy with press credentials. Make them pay for what they did. There is a difference between objective reporting that might reflect negatively and outright lies and advocacy.

Americans saw through the lawfare the Democrats engaged in and rejected it. I urge you to peruse this website on all the hoaxes, the sham impeachments, and everything else Democrats threw at the nation in order to derail Trump. Adam Schiff led a soft coup in Congress. He’ll be in the minority in the Senate now so he won’t have as much power.

Barack Obama, take a seat. Bill Clinton too. Shut your mouth and enjoy the money you grifted out of the system. What happened to the days when Presidents rode off into the sunset and didn’t insert themselves into the center of public life? George Bush has done that. Those two ought to as well. I thought their campaign stops were awkward at best, and just angry. I maintain that Barack Obama was one of the top five worst Presidents in American history. His domestic policies were horrible. He enabled the worst of the worst in the Middle East. He failed to check Putin or North Korea. He weakened our country both economically and militarily. He divided the country. Obama is over.

Republicans ought to learn a few things too. The Mitch McConnell/Paul Ryan wing of the GOP is the one that consistently promises, fails to deliver, and loses elections. If you want to see what that tactic gets you, look at the GOP in Illinois. It’s a feckless and fangless Washington Generals’ opposition to the Democratic Machine.

Goodbye to the Cheney’s, Jonah Goldberg, the phonies, and the drek who were willing tools for the worst parts of the opposing party. They wanted power, money, and mostly attention. Don’t give them any attention. Unfollow them. Don’t quote them. Make them irrelevant. Force them to be productive and force them to actually build something instead of leeching off everyone else.

If the Republicans don’t follow through on a lot of their campaign promises in the first two years, 2026 will be a reckoning for them in a big way. The Republicans have a tough Senate map to defend in 2026 and the House is always a struggle.

Find good candidates. No more Kari Lake’s. No more non-serious candidates that perform well on a thirty-second YouTube video and look good but have no substance. Properly vet your candidates. The North Carolina governor’s race is an excellent example.

Trump’s people ought to take some vengeance on some of the political opposition that persecuted him. But, I wouldn’t make that a feature of my effort. Trump is better off building and creating opportunities for people than he would be waging a revenge campaign. Maybe forgive, but don’t forget.

Here is an example. I would leave the Cheney’s alone. They will die a lonely death in the wilderness unless they fess up to their being manipulated, and their own manipulations. I would sick someone after Fauci and prosecute him to the fullest extent of the law.

If I were Trump I’d pull a Mileil. He is Argentina’s president. Mileil is undoing a century of socialism and corruption. Argentina is a country that has amazing physical assets and would be a world economic power today if it was managed the right way. We don’t have socialism in the US, but we don’t have free markets either. FDR and a legacy of bad regulation have screwed up American markets. We have so much untapped potential it is not even funny.

Trump should fire and get rid of whole swaths of government agencies and regulations. Do it swiftly because there are only two years. I think unleashing Kennedy on the HHS part of government could work if he goes FAST. Hopefully, Kennedy can execute.

Trump obviously needs to retool the Deep State. FBI/CIA need to have a very deep housecleaning. If I were Trump, the Department of Homeland Security would end and I’d fold it into something else. There are many departments in DC that need to be killed. The CFPB is one I would also cut immediately.

Trump also needs to fire all the woke military brass that ruined our military. DEI training needs to go, especially at the service academies. Make them live up to their ideals instead of a false twisted sense of them.

Trump needs to make Washington DC irrelevant in our lives. That is the point of good government. It shouldn’t be noticeable.

Another way to make DC irrelevant in our lives is to end the way we tax people and companies. Instituting the Fair Tax does that and Trump needs to get on that right away instead of negotiating around the edges of the existing tax system.

There were some surprising results, at least to me, last night. School choice was on the ballot in two states and lost. I was a bit shocked by this, especially in Kentucky. I don’t know why they lost but I place the blame on the people supporting school choice. They need to educate people better about it.

The leaders in US teacher’s unions are horrible and undermine the values put forth in our Constitution. School choice defangs and declaws them.

In my home state of Nevada, we enacted Voter ID! It passed overwhelmingly. It would be nice to see it passed everywhere in the US because free, fair and transparent elections are essential to the process. You might not like that your candidate lost, but if it’s a transparent election at least you will understand why.

Nevada also rejected ranked choice voting which was a good thing. Ranked choice voting eliminates competition. I am okay with people wanting to register as an independent but they shouldn’t have a say in a political party’s primary then. They get their say in the general election. Alaska looks like it will narrowly repeal ranked-choice voting.

It was a good night to be a conservative but frankly, not a great night. Trump winning was great and the margin he won by was fantastic. He won the popular vote. The House of Representatives is too close. Gerrymandering accounts for some of that and we should put a lot of pressure on all states to end the gerrymanders. We lost some winnable Senate races. Remember, in Reagan’s landslide win, 15 Senate seats flipped. Conservatives have a lot of work to do in a country that is divided.

Conservatives can win the day because once people understand their policies, they make sense. They can lead by example too.

As Marc Andreessen tweeted, “It’s time to build.”