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I know jack shit, and here is my take. S&P's trade in a range for some time, which puts me into the bearish camp. The ES 4100 zone needs to be taken out without a big buy response. Bitcoin looks particularly vulnerable, but it's also in a big range. The key 30,000 zone looks like it will be tested, however. Maybe crypto now is a leading indicator?

Rising interest rates are bad for the market, but how high can they raise them? They effectively can't raise bigly these days. Thoughts?

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They will raise fifty basis points. Watch the inflation numbers tomorrow. The market might actually rally on bad numbers since it might be priced in today. I am not sure crypto is a leading indicator-but for sure it's risky and it is a risk off market. Hence, it's dropping. Hard productive assets win in an inflationary environment.

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Yeah - they aren't likely to raise truly 'bigly' right now, but it's coming. That or worse if current trends in the global political economy continue/expand. Many people (perhaps most people in the market these days) are not old enough to remember both before and during the bear market of the '70s and seem only able to perceive boom/bust & speculative market cycles.

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It doesn’t feel like a bear market, yet. Stocks are choppy, plenty of uncertainty, and the bias is tilted towards the sell side but I see too many irrational buyers who aren’t interested in P/E or any valuation metric, for many of these (mostly young) investors the broad market is a casino. All you need is luck and low interest rates; and on that note I read something this morning that on this day in 1981 the Fed Funds rate was 15%, today it is 0.33%

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Apr 12, 2022Liked by Jeffrey Carter

Dear God, Hubert. Best salesman in the world.

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