27 Comments
Nov 9, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

As a Ukrainian with family in country, I'm especially keen on and interested in what's going on there. Your analysis was very good. I would add, however, that we were at peace, as was Ukraine (generally speaking), while oil prices were substantially lower. When the old one (Biden) decided that the U.S. should no longer be energy independent and that Europe would be better off buying its energy from Russia, Putin was able to fund his invasion. Our embarrassing and unforgivable scamper from AFG gave him the confidence to invade. After all, he, as many here, was convinced that we had some really stupid people running our foreign and military policy.

Expand full comment

The Biden War on Energy -- driven by the fantasy of greenness -- is one of the top blunders every committed by a US President.

The US economy was excellent and this was the turning point.

He hurt the US, triggered inflation, funded the Russian war on Ukraine, and set off turmoil in the Middle East.

God bless and protect your people in Ukraine.

JLM

www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

Expand full comment
author

The war on energy is rooted in fallacy. The fallacy that we have a limited supply and will run out. the fallacy that global warming is caused by oil.

Expand full comment
Nov 10, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

Much as I wish it wasn't true, I think we're stuck with Trump as the nominee. I know you think he can't win the general, but I have to hope he can. Living in Minnesota my vote won't mean anything but I'll be giving it to him to make the popular vote closer. The country will be exponentially better off versus whoever the Dems run.

Expand full comment
author

Maybe it will! You never know, those my Scandi people up there usually vote Dem

Expand full comment
Nov 9, 2023·edited Nov 10, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

The republicans need to grow a spine and then after standing up straight stay that way. Reduction of government at the federal level, that thing that our pesky little documment known as the consitution calls for needs to be priority 1,2, 3 and 4. Our disfunction as a nation can be traced back to selling our souls to federalization under TR and Wilson then the centralization bomb of all bombs came in the form of FDR. Since then far to many of us have depended on the Federal government to direct us, save us, heal us, feed us. That is not our design.

As for Russia, they have been a hothouse mess for 1,000 years and Muscovites now in charge have long had an identity issue they have no answer for. They are not European but they also don't really belong in the cultural group that makes up the Asian continent. Funny side note is that Marx predicted, incorrectly like everything else he said/did/touched/wrote who would be the first types of countries to run towards his "new"- See plagerized political/economic/sociological philosphy. Marx thought it would be leading edge industrial nations like Britain.

A great read that has an interesting back story is the Perestroika Deception which explains a lot about what has come out of the former USSR.

Expand full comment
Nov 9, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

Clearest and most concise overview of the factors involved in the Russia Ukraine conflict ... thank you

Expand full comment

Vivek is a distraction and an unserious candidate in my opinion.

Expand full comment
author
Nov 9, 2023·edited Nov 9, 2023Author

Yup but he brings up points other candidates wont say like the corrupt media for one example

Expand full comment
Nov 9, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

After watching the Keebler Elves last night, which one of them do you believe can win? It's a pretty pathetic group.

Expand full comment
author

In polling, both DeSantis and Haley beat Biden handily.

Expand full comment

In polling. Really? What is your beef with Trump? Style or Substance? What's more important?

Expand full comment
Nov 9, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

I differ on a couple of your points. First, the Europeans can fund a proxy war with Russia if they want to - they have the financial wherewithal. If they can't make weapons, they can buy them from us or maybe South Korea as Poland is doing. And getting rid of Putin is definitely is not our problem. Russia is not the Soviet Union, either in resources or world conquering intent. We don't need to be involved.

Expand full comment
Nov 9, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

DeSantis would have been a perfect vp but djt hit him so hard there's no chance of reconciliation. In his wisdom, he did this w a 40 point lead. As moronic a move as I've seen.

Expand full comment

The Constitution forbids a POTUS and VPOTUS both being from the same state.

It was intended to keep the Virginians from running everything.

JLM

www.themusingofthebigredcar.com

Expand full comment
Nov 10, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

Never knew that. Thx

Expand full comment
author

right. Moronic. Trump hitting Christie, no big deal. Christie is going nowhere. Trump should just leave Haley and DeSantis alone for now

Expand full comment

Bingo! But he's incapable of that

Expand full comment
Nov 10, 2023·edited Nov 10, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

Great stuff as usual. I am going to limit this comment to NATO - Ukraine.

When the USSR crashed in 1991, Ukraine immediately expressed its interest in joining NATO. Ukraine has been looking westward economically for a long time and while it has a Russian historic culture, the future of Ukraine is in the west not with Russia. This really irritates the Russians who believe Ukraine is part of some fantasy Old Russia.

Nobody likes the Russians.

Subsequently, with the December 1994 Budapest Memorandum -- wherein the US, UK, Russia and Ukraine agreed to Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons (USSR nukes) to the Russian Federation in return for guarantees of its independence from the others -- Ukraine slid under the umbrella of the two largest participants in Nato.

In 2008, Ukraine initiated a MAP (membership action plan, the formal application to join Nato) and was rebuffed. Nato did not reject them wholesale, but indicated internal politics was too frothy to make that move. In retrospect, Nato should have taken Ukraine to their bosom and loved them like their favorite nephew.

When the Russians attacked Ukraine, neither the US nor the UK acted under their Budapest Memorandum obligations to defend Ukraine which was a cowardly and bad faith act. They signed on to do it and they should have done it.

This was not widely reported and even today the US and UK pretend they did not really sign that Budapest Memorandum.

Nato, nonetheless, did provide support to Ukraine -- which is after all what you get through Article V meaning an attack on one is an attack on all. This support took the form of humanitarian support and military weapons and training.

After the unprovoked attack by Russia on Ukraine, Sweden and Finland immediately applied for Nato membership and were fast tracked into the alliance though Turkey -- a shitty country who should not be in Nato -- is still slow walking the Swedish approval. It is front of the Turkish parliament right now.

Stop just a second -- Finland has fought a war v Russia (twice really) and has a gigantic border with Russia in the proximity of where a huge amount of Russian nukes are sited. They also have a very good army and the Swedes have a very good navy, so this was a huge get for Nato.

One of the Russian nonsensical utterances is they "deserve" a neutral border around their country which would be more palatable if they didn't attack their neighbors.

At the July 2023 Vilnius Nato Conference, Nato agreed to allow Ukraine to apply for membership saying it would expedite the application. This news was poorly reported in the West.

Officially, Ukraine is in bed with Nato on the following process:

1. Nato agreed to provide Ukraine with a muilti-year package of military support to include intel, strategy, weapons, and training. At the strategic level this program will wean Ukraine from Soviet Era arms systems and put them on the Nato arms sugar tit.

It would be nice if Nato countries would start producing more artillery ammunition. They have a little, but we're going on two years in and 155mm ammo is still in short supply as well as certain missile packages. Get with it, Nato.

2. Nato and Ukraine agreed to form a Nato-Ukraine Council as a formal structure to provide communication and administration of the relationship. This is a huge development as it formalizes the direct relationship between Ukraine and Nato. In some ways this may be better than being part of Nato and one of 31 Nato nations.

3. Nato waived the requirement for Ukraine to submit a MAP (membership action plan) which means the only hurdle to Ukraine membership in Nato is simply Nato's deciding that the time is right. Remember Nato membership must be universally agreed amongst the current members. Again, huuuuuuuuge!

I think it would be fair to say that Nato does not want to bring Ukraine on board in the middle of a hot shooting war.

Nato exists to collectively enhance regional security and the only threat to Nato is Russia (well that and climate change, haha, sorry). It makes sense for Nato to surround Russia.

The Russians -- in the six minutes per day they are honest -- must be kicking themselves in the ass over Sweden and Finland joining Nato. Remember how there would be repercussions?

If Nato ramps up its support for Ukraine this has a good outcome. If not, then it is just the first inning of what will turn out to be a long ballgame with the Baltic states (former Russian colonies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and Poland being next on the dance card.

A military defeated Russia and a broke Russian economy are good things for the world.

JLM

www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

Expand full comment
author

And what happens next. Which "shithead" rules Russia? The fact is that when networks break apart, the reconstitute themselves in a different way-and the different way sometimes is worse. One example: They knifed up the old Democratic Chicago Machine. The new Chicago Machine is run by the Marxist Chicago Teacher's Union. Another, crush the Taliban, and up pops ISIS. This also happens inside corporate America. Take away Steve Jobs, you don't get a flourishing decentralized network at Apple, you get Tim Cook.

Expand full comment

Russia is dismembered into a set of regional states and is unable to threaten Europe would be the dream outcome.

When Trump killed Souleimani, the Iranian Quds leader, Iran calmed down for a short period of time.

We need to break Russia economically -- which is what drove the USSR to collapse.

Destroy their army, defang them as a nation, and break them up -- damn good start.

The wild card is the nukes.

JLM

www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

Expand full comment
Nov 9, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter

Vivek is a pump and dump scum. Haley is playing more for NH than IA. My D wife asked "I wonder if I could vote for Haley". She won't do the same thing for DeSantis. I told her living in IL it makes no difference. God (or jail) save us from Felonious Don. Loose lips sink ships. Ukraine has close to nothing to do with NATO as no matter which country "wins" NATO will be, & would have been without a war, on Russia's border. The East European analysis of the history is much better than most of the West's. Kicking the can always has costs, it's hard to tell how large they will be.

Expand full comment
author

Wouldn't call him Pump and Dump....I think he's condescending. But, I loved seeing him go after the moderators and talking about the managers of the Presidency.....that's why he's worth keeping in the short run. Felonious Don has indictments, all political, not for actual crimes.

Expand full comment

Ramaswamy's "business acumen". He's a pump and dumper and a patent troll. https://fortune.com/2023/06/14/vivek-ramaswamy-is-threatening-gop-heavyweights-in-the-polls-but-his-business-record-doesnt-live-up-to-the-hype/

Trump's documents indictments are legit. And he's not even under indictment for sharing military secrets with the 'red haired weirdo from Australia'.

Expand full comment

I would like to share my thoughts on the status of the war in Ukraine. The war must be viewed from a global, regional, strategic, tactical, and local level.

Globally, the Ukraine - Russia War has mobilized the western opposition with the most massive military support campaign (excepting WWII) and regimen of economic sanctions in world history. Well played, Putin, you moron.

Every war has a period of time in which the warring parties are not advancing their cause. It is just part of warfare. This is why the US runs its officers through places like the Command & Gen'l Staff College and the War College -- to understand the ebb and flow of warfare.

The Americans spent two winters in the Italian mountains staring across valleys at their German opponents shivering. They took the winters off because they could not effectively operate in those conditions wherein logistics and removing WIA to the rear for treatment were mule driven. In the end, the Americans drove the Germans north until the end of the war.

During those winters the infantry continued local actions, patrolling, raiding, and snatching prisoners. My father fought in Italy and received a battlefield commission.

After the Allies landed in Normandy, they were bottled up in the bocage country until they finally ground through it with substantial casualties and began to maneuver with armor and chase the Germans.

In war gaming after the fact, the outcomes might have been different if Hitler had committed armor reserves while the landings were underway. Wars are also won by the blunders of opponents.

There are setbacks in even victorious campaigns -- the Allies got caught off guard by the Germans in the Battle of the Bulge when the Germans were able to marshal a gigantic force unbeknownst to the Allied intelligence who thought the war was over.

After a heroic -- but closely contested -- battle at Bastogne, the Allies destroyed the Germans and followed them home, but there was plenty of hard fighting until the end.

In Ukraine, as in all wars, we have seen the introduction of new tech -- greatly improved ATGM weapons that make armor progressively more vulnerable, long range and highly accurate missile technology, and the advent of the drone as both a weapon and an intel gatherer.

In assessing the Russians and their fighting capabilities, we come away with some damning observations supported by real battlefield intel:

1. The Russians do not have a very good army -- a conscript army. At the troop level it is poorly led. They have lost entire elite formations -- the paratroopers who tried to seize an airport north of Kyiv -- because of weak leadership.

2. Russian planning -- over a two year period -- for the invasion of Ukraine was piss poor and the Ukrainians fought far, far, far better than anybody imagined.

I know officers who fought with them in Iraq who sang their praises from the beginning, but at the Pentagon and White House, they had the Russians winning in a week. Stupid.

Our CIA/MI completely blew this assessment. They also had the over/under at one week. Thjs blunder should be investigated.

3. Putin has gone through 5 theater commanders and is micromanaging the war.

4. Russian tanks have been destroyed wholesale and their inability to manufacture even enough new tanks to make up combat losses is a fatal flaw. The Russians are pulling late 1940s/early 1950s tanks out of storage and sending them to Ukraine.

The Russians are buying Soviet Era ammo for their guns from North Korea and drones from Iran. We really need to jack up Iran big time.

5. The Russians cannot and are not trying to achieve air superiority which is mind boggling to anyone with a military education. It is the first thing you try to do.

Some of this is a testament to the US anti-aircraft gear the Ukrainians have learned to operate so well.

6. The Russians have lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers KIA/WIA and have sent fresh troops -- conscripts -- into combat as replacements in devastated units with no training. This is suicide.

7. Ukraine, a country with no real navy, sunk the Russian Black Sea flagship with a clever missile ambush. This is a miraculous result and an insight to Ukrainian ingenuity and pluck as well as the advent of shore based missiles as the scourge of navies everywhere.

8. Russia has struggled to support its front line troops with ammo, chow, and medical support such that many WIA have become KIA without support.

9. The Ukrainians have forced the Russians over onto the defense which is an important milestone in any war. The turning of the tide is always begun when this happens. The US did it at Guadalcanal in World War II and Midway and North Africa.

10. The Ukrainians have forced the logistics envelope deeper and deeper behind the FEBA (forward edge of the battle area) with skillful use of American and other countries' weapons.

The Ukrainians have some substantial vulnerabilities -- manpower and waning US support being the two biggest, but the scrappy Ukrainians have taken Russia's best blows, survived, forced them back onto the defense, and have the possibility -- not a certainty -- to prevail.

The world is well served by a defanged, defeated Russia.

Stay the course and recognize that the ebb and flow of combat is a normal thing. God bless Ukraine!

JLM

www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

Expand full comment

Haley claimed that DeSantis opposed fracking...is that true, or did he just oppose fracking in FL Everglades? There's a huge difference. Decent debate moderators would have caused this to get clarified.

Expand full comment
author

Thought that was a cheap shot by her

Expand full comment