I've always been wary of crypto for this very reason (the government). I think that they waited to see if it was a fad and would flame out on its own, or if it would present an actual threat to the USD. The more successful it got, I think it was more likely the government would move on it. So I didn't see a breakout scenario as an investment. Quite a risky one, in fact.
I also wonder if our government today is really that much worse in encroaching on our liberties, or if it is just that we're noticing it more. This is the same country that enacted Prohibition and has had many laws that were quite restrictive in our past.
For the record, I abhor the tyranny, and I think the only way to curb the government beast is to steadily defund it.
Things always change, but human nature stays the same.
Jun 7, 2023·edited Jun 7, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Carter
As interest rates and the federal deficit increases the federal government will find it harder and harder to pay interest on the national debt (let alone pay the debt down). This will eventually reach a critical mass when the US government will no longer be able to pay full Social Security benefits. By this time the national debt will have grown to such a degree that interest payments on this debt will impair the ability of the federal government to fully fund any programs. In order to protect itself the federal government will need to have a currency it has total control over versus crypto which is very portable and not tied to a nation state.
In the past the government was reactive to problems and crimes. Today the government is predatory. Government regulators are like a person with borderline personality disorder, business never knows for sure what will offend the government specifically, while anything leading to individual independence broadly will attract their attention. The attraction for early crypto people was exactly that it was outside the government. I don't think there is an end to innovation or creativity. I think there will be some new developments in the crypto world, especially now that it's clear there is a clear enemy.
I think the banks you mention had bigger issues with both NPLs on restricted shares, and perhaps, as I have seen NO reports of it, unregulated crypto lending. The whippet trading patterns of crypto sure look like margining issues than anything fundamental. And yes, I know I’m biased. Still believe it’s both a closed room trade as well as a solution in search of a problem.
Great mental exercise, though. Real, raw trading with few of the rules, depending upon the exchange.
Unrestricted credit creation will always bring out the angry Fed. And I believe that’s what we saw here.
I like cryptocurrency conceptually but it literally is a Ponzi scheme, and the government was never going to let it get very far as a competitor to hard currency. But they did need to take time to do enough research on it, so that they could figure out how to implement CBDC. This will be tied to social credit scores, governed by unaccountable AI. Meanwhile Trump is about to be indicted and will end up in prison. Sounds like a fun future, no?
It requires a constant stream of new demand to maintain the value. If the new user demand stops, what are people holding Bitcoin going to do? Hold it forever and never trade it for anything? Sell it only to other Bitcoin holders? Cash it out? If they all cash it out, demand drops and that would lead to a downward spiral of the value.
I was speaking with a friend today and the thought came to mind that Trump is going to be jailed. I don't see how this regime does not jail him, just my intuition.
Need Help for a client. Are there any publicly available data that cover very long-dated futures contracts for BTC (5 years)? This is not for trading. This is an accounting question - re: in impairment testing. They are responding to an SEC comment on their mining ops and the price level they have used over the following many years to cover their mining equipment, containers and other equipment. Grabbing the implied vol from market participants would be helpful in the prove out of the price level over the impairment period. Checked CME and LegerX and neither has anything past Dec 24. And does not look like a lot of activity out that far either. I don't think backward historical would be meaningful in this regards. Any assist appreciated.
you could call the CME Data Services and see if they could run something special for you. Could also check Bitnomial.com and see if they have good data.
One correction. You said, "since it’s they (Dems) that run the show on the Executive Branch and have all but four years since 2009."
While DJT was an R and he was nominally POTUS, it is now clear (and has been for decades to those of us paying attention with a healthy portion of cynicism) that the Deep State is real and it is run nearly completely by Communists who hate America.
For some old fashioned background and history lesson, read "Witness" by Whittaker Chambers. He was sounding the alarm about Commies in the Departments of State and Defense and inside the halls of Congress in the 1950's. Of course, no one wanted to hear it. But it turns out that he and Sen. Joe McCarthy were the ones who were right.
Oh, the laptop. Good question. Those inside their bubble don't question a thing, never did,. The 'experts' said Russian disinformation. Anyone with half a brain, knows differently. Seems impossible, but it's the norm now. They picked their winner!
I've always been wary of crypto for this very reason (the government). I think that they waited to see if it was a fad and would flame out on its own, or if it would present an actual threat to the USD. The more successful it got, I think it was more likely the government would move on it. So I didn't see a breakout scenario as an investment. Quite a risky one, in fact.
I also wonder if our government today is really that much worse in encroaching on our liberties, or if it is just that we're noticing it more. This is the same country that enacted Prohibition and has had many laws that were quite restrictive in our past.
For the record, I abhor the tyranny, and I think the only way to curb the government beast is to steadily defund it.
Things always change, but human nature stays the same.
As interest rates and the federal deficit increases the federal government will find it harder and harder to pay interest on the national debt (let alone pay the debt down). This will eventually reach a critical mass when the US government will no longer be able to pay full Social Security benefits. By this time the national debt will have grown to such a degree that interest payments on this debt will impair the ability of the federal government to fully fund any programs. In order to protect itself the federal government will need to have a currency it has total control over versus crypto which is very portable and not tied to a nation state.
In the past the government was reactive to problems and crimes. Today the government is predatory. Government regulators are like a person with borderline personality disorder, business never knows for sure what will offend the government specifically, while anything leading to individual independence broadly will attract their attention. The attraction for early crypto people was exactly that it was outside the government. I don't think there is an end to innovation or creativity. I think there will be some new developments in the crypto world, especially now that it's clear there is a clear enemy.
I think the banks you mention had bigger issues with both NPLs on restricted shares, and perhaps, as I have seen NO reports of it, unregulated crypto lending. The whippet trading patterns of crypto sure look like margining issues than anything fundamental. And yes, I know I’m biased. Still believe it’s both a closed room trade as well as a solution in search of a problem.
Great mental exercise, though. Real, raw trading with few of the rules, depending upon the exchange.
Unrestricted credit creation will always bring out the angry Fed. And I believe that’s what we saw here.
Whippy, not whippet
I like cryptocurrency conceptually but it literally is a Ponzi scheme, and the government was never going to let it get very far as a competitor to hard currency. But they did need to take time to do enough research on it, so that they could figure out how to implement CBDC. This will be tied to social credit scores, governed by unaccountable AI. Meanwhile Trump is about to be indicted and will end up in prison. Sounds like a fun future, no?
how is it a ponzi scheme?
It requires a constant stream of new demand to maintain the value. If the new user demand stops, what are people holding Bitcoin going to do? Hold it forever and never trade it for anything? Sell it only to other Bitcoin holders? Cash it out? If they all cash it out, demand drops and that would lead to a downward spiral of the value.
I was speaking with a friend today and the thought came to mind that Trump is going to be jailed. I don't see how this regime does not jail him, just my intuition.
They pretty much have to after all they’ve said and done. But there’s a decent chance it could backfire on them bigly!
https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/06/07/gensler-limelight-house-republicans-coinbase-binance/?tpcc=NL_Marketing Coincidental, or not? House Republican Ag/FinServices committee come up with a new regulatory framework on Crypto and the SAME day the SEC acts.
Need Help for a client. Are there any publicly available data that cover very long-dated futures contracts for BTC (5 years)? This is not for trading. This is an accounting question - re: in impairment testing. They are responding to an SEC comment on their mining ops and the price level they have used over the following many years to cover their mining equipment, containers and other equipment. Grabbing the implied vol from market participants would be helpful in the prove out of the price level over the impairment period. Checked CME and LegerX and neither has anything past Dec 24. And does not look like a lot of activity out that far either. I don't think backward historical would be meaningful in this regards. Any assist appreciated.
you could call the CME Data Services and see if they could run something special for you. Could also check Bitnomial.com and see if they have good data.
Much appreciated
Question for you Mr. C. Will Bitcoin survive and thrive in the coming environment? In your estimable opinion, of course.
One correction. You said, "since it’s they (Dems) that run the show on the Executive Branch and have all but four years since 2009."
While DJT was an R and he was nominally POTUS, it is now clear (and has been for decades to those of us paying attention with a healthy portion of cynicism) that the Deep State is real and it is run nearly completely by Communists who hate America.
For some old fashioned background and history lesson, read "Witness" by Whittaker Chambers. He was sounding the alarm about Commies in the Departments of State and Defense and inside the halls of Congress in the 1950's. Of course, no one wanted to hear it. But it turns out that he and Sen. Joe McCarthy were the ones who were right.
Now it is too late.
Oh, the laptop. Good question. Those inside their bubble don't question a thing, never did,. The 'experts' said Russian disinformation. Anyone with half a brain, knows differently. Seems impossible, but it's the norm now. They picked their winner!