In my previous post, I blogged about journalists and Democrats who have built up giant psychological fortresses which are almost impossible to overcome. They are no longer objective and reasonable.
I think the same can be said for many on the Republican side, especially those that vehemently support Trump. Trump is no angel.
Trump certainly got a totally raw deal from the get-go. The faux Russian Dossier was just the start. The George Floyd riots weren’t about George Floyd but about Trump. Covid wasn’t about curing some epidemic but became about getting rid of Trump. But, even though Trump wasn’t exemplary around January 6th, he didn’t do himself any favors either.
In order to take and utilize power, you have to win elections. You can’t just make talking points on television. Trump is on a pretty big losing streak when it comes to elections in swing states or districts. People who vehemently back Trump fail to see this because of their own psychological walls.
I remember having dinner with a person who backed Jeb Bush. He didn’t like Trump, but he held his nose and voted for him in 2016. He said, “You know, the more they unfairly attack him the madder I get.” That was the start of supporters building up their walls. Democrats and Trump himself turned it into win/lose, us/them.
I have very good friends that support Trump. In many ways, they aren’t wrong about their reasons why. I have good Republican friends that will not support Trump under any circumstances. They will stay home, or vote for some lingering third-party candidate or worse, vote Democrat.
Given the course of the Democratic Party, if you are for free markets, objective courts, and general freedom, you cannot vote Democrat.
Are polls correct? Is it really that close between Biden and Trump? Between any Democrat and Trump? They have been incorrect a lot over the last few election cycles. When it comes to an Electoral College election, I don’t think Trump can win.
Here are the results of the 2020 election based on the Electoral College. Trump lost 306-232.
Which states are possible, or a lock, for Trump to turn in 2024? When a state flips, you double-count. So, if Wisconsin were to flip, you take ten away from Biden and add ten to Trump. You need 270 to win. Trump needs to find 38 Electoral College votes.
Looking at the map, these are the states in play:
Wisconsin (10)
Arizona (11)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Georgia (16)
New Hampshire (4)
In all of these states, I can make a stronger case for the Democrats winning over the Republicans. Trump needs a minimum of three to four of them.
Given current trends, he has no chance in Colorado, Nevada, Michigan, or Minnesota and truthfully given the Fetterman election in Pennsylvania, does he have a chance there?
To bolster the Trump follower argument though, name a Republican that would change the map.
Regarding both posts, I had a similar experience a month ago sitting at the bar at the Union League Club in downtown Chicago. A nice gent sitting next to me started a conversation and we talked for over an hour. He was in town for a legal/medical conference (he's a lawyer from Florida) and it was one of those conversations that was so engaging that it reminded me how great it used to be to have intelligent discussions with strangers in a past life. Then he took a swerve into politics and stated how much he despised Ron DeSantis and how Trump was the most virulent racist anti-Semite our country has ever seen. Mind you, this guy is late 60's in age and a distinguished practicing attorney, so he should really know better than to be that extreme. I had enjoyed our discussion up to that point and I knew there was zero chance of turning any light on in his head so I just let it slide right off. Sigh
As for a Republican candidate: If we voted for sheer technical competence and practicality, Vivek would be strongly challenging Trump right now. If we prioritized tenacity and a track record, DeSantis would be beating Trump. Setting aside the hardcore MAGA supporters, I think the increasing craziness of leftists and their unrelenting targeting of Trump have sufficiently pissed off enough people who would not have tended to support Trump for another go-round that his poll numbers are now in a kind of limbo....too big to be overcome by any visible Republican candidates yet to small to get elected.
I would say forget all that. My big issue with Trump is the fact that he supports Ronna. Anyone here think Ronna knows how to win anything? You think Ronna has a plan? Once again, the big issue with Trump is personnel is policy. He just does not get it.