Well you all were not born to live thru the 1929-30'..the DEEP DEPRESSION.. It may well be on it's way again folks..until it affects the pocketbook and the lives of all around you and the 'soup-lines'...I remember seeing those lines when I was just a child. UNTIL this happens AGAIN..people with big thoughts will wake up and times will improve.
one of the major causes of the depth of the Depression was the failure of the Central Banks worldwide to have easy money policies. If you read Anna Schwarts and Milton Friedman's Monetary History of the United States, you see it. They have produced a data-driven text that shows how Central Banks contributed to the problems, not solved them. I think we have learned that lesson and Bernanke's actions during the 2008 crisis showed they had.
It's expensive to buy a farm. Do you think the startups that are doing fractional ownership of things like farms or cattle have any substance and if people put money in them, do you think they will make money?
I just saw this in the WSJ---https://www.wsj.com/articles/etfs-are-a-bad-way-to-bet-on-bitcoin-11635261745?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos1 Why Bitcoin ETFs are a bad way to bet on Bitcoin....instead, just BUY Bitcoin! Cheaper all in costs...plus you can hedge at Bitnomial.com (I am an investor)
Farming, yeah right. Better the hell know what you are doing, which of course nobody does unless they have been in the trenches. Wait, isn't climate change going to fuck us all, with farming 1st in line?
The best bet that's worked for a long time is to buy the pullbacks on momo stocks. Place your bet, msft, tesla, hd, cmg, nvda, appl you name it, on whatever semblance of a moving average/support reference that suits your fancy on the monthly chart. I know, hindsight makes it too easy.
Buying oil at zero is always a good trade too. Jusk kidding.
Probably good too, is to know how to short when the time is right.
I would agree that you will lose if you dont know what you are doing, but one can always hire a farm management company. There are several good ones out there. Farm land provides cash flow and a general inflation hedge/ store of value. It also fits into a diversified portfolio with a negative equity beta. Also, the real estate and cash flow can be leveraged to provide enhanced returns or annuity like payments. Farm and Timberland value is not as dynamic and can be illiquid but is a "real" asset that doesnt ebb and flow based upon wall street valuation metrics
Gold is a terrible investment? It has outperformed the S&P 500 Total Return so far this century: https://cjshaver.com/bl0236 . Have you done better than gold in the 2000s?
Gold doesn’t hold its value? You can still buy a good five cent cigar with gold: https://cjshaver.com/bl0205
Sounds like your mind is already made up, so here are some other tips:
- First and foremost, get out of dollar-denominated bonds, they will have real negative yields for the next decade, to inflate away debt: https://cjshaver.com/bl0200
- Invest in commodities, hard assets, quality real estate, and value stocks, especially outside the US where valuations are more sane
If you were in gold vs stocks for the last ten years, you got crushed. https://slopeofhope.com/2021/10/gold-a-thing-of-beauty.html. Or, a better way of saying it is you paid a very high opportunity cost. A friend of mine bought the high in gold in 1979-80. Absolute stone-cold high. He got even on the trade in 2002 or 2003. Took 9/11 and the Iran War to rally gold. I have some other friends that are or were gold bugs. There are no long-lived gold bugs. Your annualized return figuring in inflation is negative 4% https://dqydj.com/gold-return-calculator/ over the last ten years-and that's with a massive rally in 2020. SlopeofHope.com finally threw in the towel on gold this year. https://slopeofhope.com/2021/05/about-gold.html Gold is great for jewelry and other things. Might be good for gilding lobbies in Trump's hotels. I don't think it's a good inflation hedge at all.
You’ve been managing too many 10-year funds, Jeff. Expand your time horizon a little and look at the 20-year return versus the S&P. Look at the 100-year return. Name me one other thing you could have bought in 1921 that would allow you to trade it today for the same quantity of cigars. That’s exactly the definition of an inflation hedge: something that maintains its purchasing power over the long term.
100-year return is a bit unrealistic for most retirement plans. The most people are retired is 10-30 years. Given your constraints, televisions are actually cheaper than they were in 1960. They weren't around in 1921, but if they were they'd be cheaper. Technology is deflationary.....It's why you feel like crap after you spend a bunch of money buying it for your house and look in the newspaper the next week and see it's all on sale and new stuff is better : ).
Yes, thank goodness for technology, it’s a main driver of improving living standards. Bottom line on gold: it’s one way to store some purchasing power. That’s how people in China (where crypto is now banned) and India use it. Central banks still hold it - read up on what Putin is doing in Russia, the guy is smarter than most world leaders. Xi has been trying to buy entire gold mines: Canada refused to sell him one recently. There will always be people who will buy it from you, that’s been true for 5,000 years.
It could work quite nicely in the US, too. Ask yourself what will happen here if the dollar’s reserve currency status starts to erode, when other countries start to demand something other than dollars to buy stuff from them. What will we pay them with?
Well you all were not born to live thru the 1929-30'..the DEEP DEPRESSION.. It may well be on it's way again folks..until it affects the pocketbook and the lives of all around you and the 'soup-lines'...I remember seeing those lines when I was just a child. UNTIL this happens AGAIN..people with big thoughts will wake up and times will improve.
one of the major causes of the depth of the Depression was the failure of the Central Banks worldwide to have easy money policies. If you read Anna Schwarts and Milton Friedman's Monetary History of the United States, you see it. They have produced a data-driven text that shows how Central Banks contributed to the problems, not solved them. I think we have learned that lesson and Bernanke's actions during the 2008 crisis showed they had.
Farmland
It's expensive to buy a farm. Do you think the startups that are doing fractional ownership of things like farms or cattle have any substance and if people put money in them, do you think they will make money?
https://www.farmfundr.com/
I just saw this in the WSJ---https://www.wsj.com/articles/etfs-are-a-bad-way-to-bet-on-bitcoin-11635261745?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos1 Why Bitcoin ETFs are a bad way to bet on Bitcoin....instead, just BUY Bitcoin! Cheaper all in costs...plus you can hedge at Bitnomial.com (I am an investor)
Farming, yeah right. Better the hell know what you are doing, which of course nobody does unless they have been in the trenches. Wait, isn't climate change going to fuck us all, with farming 1st in line?
The best bet that's worked for a long time is to buy the pullbacks on momo stocks. Place your bet, msft, tesla, hd, cmg, nvda, appl you name it, on whatever semblance of a moving average/support reference that suits your fancy on the monthly chart. I know, hindsight makes it too easy.
Buying oil at zero is always a good trade too. Jusk kidding.
Probably good too, is to know how to short when the time is right.
could have bought oil for less than zero last year!
I had one contract and watched it flash crash to about 12-14 bucks. Amazing. Yes, it was free there for awhile : )
Climate change is BS..
I would agree that you will lose if you dont know what you are doing, but one can always hire a farm management company. There are several good ones out there. Farm land provides cash flow and a general inflation hedge/ store of value. It also fits into a diversified portfolio with a negative equity beta. Also, the real estate and cash flow can be leveraged to provide enhanced returns or annuity like payments. Farm and Timberland value is not as dynamic and can be illiquid but is a "real" asset that doesnt ebb and flow based upon wall street valuation metrics
Gold is a terrible investment? It has outperformed the S&P 500 Total Return so far this century: https://cjshaver.com/bl0236 . Have you done better than gold in the 2000s?
Gold doesn’t hold its value? You can still buy a good five cent cigar with gold: https://cjshaver.com/bl0205
Sounds like your mind is already made up, so here are some other tips:
- First and foremost, get out of dollar-denominated bonds, they will have real negative yields for the next decade, to inflate away debt: https://cjshaver.com/bl0200
- Invest in commodities, hard assets, quality real estate, and value stocks, especially outside the US where valuations are more sane
If you were in gold vs stocks for the last ten years, you got crushed. https://slopeofhope.com/2021/10/gold-a-thing-of-beauty.html. Or, a better way of saying it is you paid a very high opportunity cost. A friend of mine bought the high in gold in 1979-80. Absolute stone-cold high. He got even on the trade in 2002 or 2003. Took 9/11 and the Iran War to rally gold. I have some other friends that are or were gold bugs. There are no long-lived gold bugs. Your annualized return figuring in inflation is negative 4% https://dqydj.com/gold-return-calculator/ over the last ten years-and that's with a massive rally in 2020. SlopeofHope.com finally threw in the towel on gold this year. https://slopeofhope.com/2021/05/about-gold.html Gold is great for jewelry and other things. Might be good for gilding lobbies in Trump's hotels. I don't think it's a good inflation hedge at all.
You’ve been managing too many 10-year funds, Jeff. Expand your time horizon a little and look at the 20-year return versus the S&P. Look at the 100-year return. Name me one other thing you could have bought in 1921 that would allow you to trade it today for the same quantity of cigars. That’s exactly the definition of an inflation hedge: something that maintains its purchasing power over the long term.
100-year return is a bit unrealistic for most retirement plans. The most people are retired is 10-30 years. Given your constraints, televisions are actually cheaper than they were in 1960. They weren't around in 1921, but if they were they'd be cheaper. Technology is deflationary.....It's why you feel like crap after you spend a bunch of money buying it for your house and look in the newspaper the next week and see it's all on sale and new stuff is better : ).
Yes, thank goodness for technology, it’s a main driver of improving living standards. Bottom line on gold: it’s one way to store some purchasing power. That’s how people in China (where crypto is now banned) and India use it. Central banks still hold it - read up on what Putin is doing in Russia, the guy is smarter than most world leaders. Xi has been trying to buy entire gold mines: Canada refused to sell him one recently. There will always be people who will buy it from you, that’s been true for 5,000 years.
I don't disagree that if I were in China, or Russia, or some totalitarian country that I'd want to own some gold or diamonds.
It could work quite nicely in the US, too. Ask yourself what will happen here if the dollar’s reserve currency status starts to erode, when other countries start to demand something other than dollars to buy stuff from them. What will we pay them with?