It is sad that the only way for fiscal discipline to occur is for something big to break. I'm watching it at the federal level, the state level (Illinois, for me) and some local levels (Cook County in my case).
It is a helpless feeling, because I know that my children and grandchildren are going to suffer because of this greed and recklessness.
The way the government behaves is the exact opposite of what every well-instructed person was taught growing up: a dollar saved is a dollar earned. Savings is a big deal, because it gives you freedom in the future. It gives you options when you need them. It makes you feel good that you don't owe someone your labor, and thus, your freedom.
As it is, we watch self-interested politicians in a ghastly game of hot potato continue to push the thing closer and closer to catastrophe. We all know it, but we collectively won't make the sacrifice.
As history tells us, this is the fundamental problem with democracy -- that we don't have the collective guts to do the right thing.
How are we going to fix this? Is the plan to just implode and then do The Great Reset?
I think the way the Civil War will occur will be when the (mostly blue) states that have massive unfunded liabilities, think Illinois, NJ, NY, etc., because of way too generous pension promises and welfare programs, go hat in hand to the Federal Government and the Feds bail them out you will see the (mostly red) states that have had good fiscal discipline say "we are out".
There is one point that requires constant repetition - the response to COVID was. as you note, shutting down economies and ballooning government spending.
The American problem is we never acknowledge this was temporary spending. The Biden Admin wants to continue to spend not just at that high rate, but at an accelerating rate.
There is no government financial restraint of any kind at a time we have to spend more on defense.
A dream president would announce on Day 1, “I’m not bailing anyone or any industry out during my term, you’re all on your own. Be responsible or pay the price”.
It will get a lot worse before it gets better. And yes, some States will double down on what cannot work while others will consistently do the only policies that can work. Actually, having State & Local governments default will a good sign. Because as long as they can sell bonds and spend money they will persist in policies that can only harm the nation. We're going to have a Recession and very high Inflation. And the voters will have to replace our current ruling class. The only question for me is how much suffering will it take before the voters who have supported Big Government their entire lives decide to reject it? I think their support will end when governments cannot spend because they've defaulted on their bonds & pensions. But I could be very wrong about that.
What have you heard about an upcoming shortage of DEF, diesel exhaust fluid? I have a trucker friend who says it is coming and will really lead to shortages of EVERYTHING!!! Gas, food, all of it.
If you had to guess, which way will propane prices go over the summer? Normally, they are cheap at this time of the year but because of all the natural gas and fertilizer issues, I am about to pay more than I ever have to fill my tank.
Should I fill'er up or only get enough for a few months?
I have no facts to back up my argument, so shred it as you will. I totally agree with Trump's lack of fiscal discipline; my impression was that he knew that true fiscal discipline would be unpopular. I mean, I think Trump would've done something, but he knew that fiscal discipline, like dieting, is something people talk about, they would like to do, but they don't when they find out what it takes. The deductibility of mortgages, for example. Or means testing social security payouts.
When you stand back and look at your (very true) comment, it's absurd isn't it? What is the point of reelection if everything a politician does is only a face-value policy intended to pass the buck? Doesn't ANYONE in our country care about more than just graft and the ability to step on someone else's neck with the power of government?
What happened to the patriots? What happened to people who "did the right thing" even though it was unpopular?
What would you rather have as your legacy:
"Person who enriched himself from government and kept everyone in fear of him"
or
"Person who helped save our country by doing the tough thing that no one else had the guts to do"
I know that these are naive questions. I just have a hard time believing that every single politician out there only cares about an extra buck in their pocket. I mean, by the time you reach 70 years old, haven't you realized that life is about more than how many trinkets and vacation homes you can accumulate?
It's all so cynical. My belief is that a good number of people go into politics with the mindset of doing good. But I think the system corrupts them. It changes their values and then they become part of it.
How do we change the system to not corrupt individuals? I'm not sure it's possible.
Term limits are a start. Second, really shrink the bureaucracy so there is less incentive to use regulation as an anti-competitive device (corps do this). The absolutely hilarious thing to me is that left wingers hate big corporates, and favor big government not realizing big government favors big corporates. Please show me the list of startup companies created in Soviet Europe from 1910-1989. Please show me the list of NON crony capitalist startup companies created in China from 1935-today....
That’s a great point about the 70 year olds. One of my Mom’s favorite saying was “There’s no fool like an old fool”, and now that I’m older it’s so apparent. I just want to tell my peers “Haven’t you learned anything?” or “Act your age”.
I can’t remember the exact Hayek quote about people continuing to push harmful policies, but I believe he said that the only explanation is doing it for personal power. It’s a shame there are so many morally bankrupt people in this country, especially when you consider that a 5 year old knows the difference between right and wrong, and what is fair or not.
Whilst agreeing more with you than you do with yourself, the saving balm of Trump was he delivered an incredible economy with record levels of Federal revenue.
If you are going to be a financial slut and wastrel, having the best economy since 1776 will buy you some cover.
Trump did with the economy what nobody could or can do with "woke" policy -- equality. We had the lowest black, Hispanic, women unemployment in US history all under a 2% inflation umbrella.
We had cheap gas, very cheap gas. That was and is a bedrock element in the US economy.
I would like some of that right now.
Trump correctly predicted exactly what damage Biden would create. Exactly. This tells me he knew what he was doing, much of which I attribute to Wilbur Ross.
This is true. It is funny, the press and Yellen are "yelling" about tariffs-which in truth are in fact passed down to consumers. What Trump was brilliant about was deregulating, and getting the government out of the way. He scratched the surface and could have done much much more except he had the pesky fake Russian collusion non-scandal, and complicit GOPe that halted any ideas around shrinking government. Agree Ross is and was brilliant. He gets no credit for what he did as Secy of Commerce.
Unfortunately, the American media doesn't understand or accept "opportunity costs" as a part of analysis. Hence, American manufacturing can manufacture overseas in places like China with no cost---meanwhile, they get their intellectual property stolen and goods counterfeited. There is a much higher cost to manufacture in the US, but the opportunity costs might be less. Plus, deregulate and have cheap energy and costs go down dramatically......
The very unfortunate response to a stock market crash with The Joe Biden Economy will be a dramatic expansion of government.
It is sad that the only way for fiscal discipline to occur is for something big to break. I'm watching it at the federal level, the state level (Illinois, for me) and some local levels (Cook County in my case).
It is a helpless feeling, because I know that my children and grandchildren are going to suffer because of this greed and recklessness.
The way the government behaves is the exact opposite of what every well-instructed person was taught growing up: a dollar saved is a dollar earned. Savings is a big deal, because it gives you freedom in the future. It gives you options when you need them. It makes you feel good that you don't owe someone your labor, and thus, your freedom.
As it is, we watch self-interested politicians in a ghastly game of hot potato continue to push the thing closer and closer to catastrophe. We all know it, but we collectively won't make the sacrifice.
As history tells us, this is the fundamental problem with democracy -- that we don't have the collective guts to do the right thing.
How are we going to fix this? Is the plan to just implode and then do The Great Reset?
I am afraid The Great Reset will require a Civil War which will divide the states into "producers" and "grifters".
I think the way the Civil War will occur will be when the (mostly blue) states that have massive unfunded liabilities, think Illinois, NJ, NY, etc., because of way too generous pension promises and welfare programs, go hat in hand to the Federal Government and the Feds bail them out you will see the (mostly red) states that have had good fiscal discipline say "we are out".
Brilliant as always.
There is one point that requires constant repetition - the response to COVID was. as you note, shutting down economies and ballooning government spending.
The American problem is we never acknowledge this was temporary spending. The Biden Admin wants to continue to spend not just at that high rate, but at an accelerating rate.
There is no government financial restraint of any kind at a time we have to spend more on defense.
Well played.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
A dream president would announce on Day 1, “I’m not bailing anyone or any industry out during my term, you’re all on your own. Be responsible or pay the price”.
It will get a lot worse before it gets better. And yes, some States will double down on what cannot work while others will consistently do the only policies that can work. Actually, having State & Local governments default will a good sign. Because as long as they can sell bonds and spend money they will persist in policies that can only harm the nation. We're going to have a Recession and very high Inflation. And the voters will have to replace our current ruling class. The only question for me is how much suffering will it take before the voters who have supported Big Government their entire lives decide to reject it? I think their support will end when governments cannot spend because they've defaulted on their bonds & pensions. But I could be very wrong about that.
What have you heard about an upcoming shortage of DEF, diesel exhaust fluid? I have a trucker friend who says it is coming and will really lead to shortages of EVERYTHING!!! Gas, food, all of it.
I have read stuff about it. I topped off my DEF tank and am preparing for the worst.
If you had to guess, which way will propane prices go over the summer? Normally, they are cheap at this time of the year but because of all the natural gas and fertilizer issues, I am about to pay more than I ever have to fill my tank.
Should I fill'er up or only get enough for a few months?
Looking for opinion not a promise.
Fill er up, and get more. Propane and NG will go way up. https://www.dailyfx.com/natural-gas
I have no facts to back up my argument, so shred it as you will. I totally agree with Trump's lack of fiscal discipline; my impression was that he knew that true fiscal discipline would be unpopular. I mean, I think Trump would've done something, but he knew that fiscal discipline, like dieting, is something people talk about, they would like to do, but they don't when they find out what it takes. The deductibility of mortgages, for example. Or means testing social security payouts.
I don't think that any politician that wants to get re-elected has the guts to stop the spending train. Not one, and Trump certainly didn't.
When you stand back and look at your (very true) comment, it's absurd isn't it? What is the point of reelection if everything a politician does is only a face-value policy intended to pass the buck? Doesn't ANYONE in our country care about more than just graft and the ability to step on someone else's neck with the power of government?
What happened to the patriots? What happened to people who "did the right thing" even though it was unpopular?
What would you rather have as your legacy:
"Person who enriched himself from government and kept everyone in fear of him"
or
"Person who helped save our country by doing the tough thing that no one else had the guts to do"
I know that these are naive questions. I just have a hard time believing that every single politician out there only cares about an extra buck in their pocket. I mean, by the time you reach 70 years old, haven't you realized that life is about more than how many trinkets and vacation homes you can accumulate?
It's all so cynical. My belief is that a good number of people go into politics with the mindset of doing good. But I think the system corrupts them. It changes their values and then they become part of it.
How do we change the system to not corrupt individuals? I'm not sure it's possible.
Term limits are a start. Second, really shrink the bureaucracy so there is less incentive to use regulation as an anti-competitive device (corps do this). The absolutely hilarious thing to me is that left wingers hate big corporates, and favor big government not realizing big government favors big corporates. Please show me the list of startup companies created in Soviet Europe from 1910-1989. Please show me the list of NON crony capitalist startup companies created in China from 1935-today....
The US Army in WWII ran through 16MM and created the defense establishment and built the Pentagon in record time.
Today, the US Army is 440,000 and the defense establishment is more than 30X what it was in WWII.
When I was in the Army (Vietnam Era) it was 2-3MM men.
The defense establishment hires every general officer they can after they retire. It is far, far bigger than it needs to be.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Like almost everything in America - it starts with parenting and family values passed along at the dinner table.
That is, unfortunately, a very long haul to repair.
JLM
www.theemusingsoftheigredcar.com
So so so so very true.
That’s a great point about the 70 year olds. One of my Mom’s favorite saying was “There’s no fool like an old fool”, and now that I’m older it’s so apparent. I just want to tell my peers “Haven’t you learned anything?” or “Act your age”.
I can’t remember the exact Hayek quote about people continuing to push harmful policies, but I believe he said that the only explanation is doing it for personal power. It’s a shame there are so many morally bankrupt people in this country, especially when you consider that a 5 year old knows the difference between right and wrong, and what is fair or not.
Whilst agreeing more with you than you do with yourself, the saving balm of Trump was he delivered an incredible economy with record levels of Federal revenue.
If you are going to be a financial slut and wastrel, having the best economy since 1776 will buy you some cover.
Trump did with the economy what nobody could or can do with "woke" policy -- equality. We had the lowest black, Hispanic, women unemployment in US history all under a 2% inflation umbrella.
We had cheap gas, very cheap gas. That was and is a bedrock element in the US economy.
I would like some of that right now.
Trump correctly predicted exactly what damage Biden would create. Exactly. This tells me he knew what he was doing, much of which I attribute to Wilbur Ross.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
This is true. It is funny, the press and Yellen are "yelling" about tariffs-which in truth are in fact passed down to consumers. What Trump was brilliant about was deregulating, and getting the government out of the way. He scratched the surface and could have done much much more except he had the pesky fake Russian collusion non-scandal, and complicit GOPe that halted any ideas around shrinking government. Agree Ross is and was brilliant. He gets no credit for what he did as Secy of Commerce.
Unfortunately, the American media doesn't understand or accept "opportunity costs" as a part of analysis. Hence, American manufacturing can manufacture overseas in places like China with no cost---meanwhile, they get their intellectual property stolen and goods counterfeited. There is a much higher cost to manufacture in the US, but the opportunity costs might be less. Plus, deregulate and have cheap energy and costs go down dramatically......
The very unfortunate response to a stock market crash with The Joe Biden Economy will be a dramatic expansion of government.