I was reading someone who claims that the Fed's magic incantations of the late 70s/early 80s won't work this time around. Back then it was a high inflation, but low-ish debt. Fed rates of even 10% (not even thinking about the 20% back then) would be catastrophic. This is more like the high debt-high inflation period of the 40s. I don't know what happens...
Also, the Democrats have "encouraged" low investment in energy production. Not just financially but also psychologically, so to speak. Energy companies will need to be assured that they won't be punished for investing again - the current attempts to punish them for "obscene windfall profits" will not help. And then, even if reassured, it will still take a few years to see the results.
Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind. At least we're not Europe.
Yes, your two primary reasons are very important. Another interesting point many have not been speaking of recently is the expectations of increased demand for energy, as more people are expected to return to their office instead of working from home, which will further drive up prices.
The stunning realization has not hit so many of the head in the sand Democrats and the ramifications of the single most inept and incompetent administration in this nation's history are likely to be felt for multiple years.
So often politicians lack vision, but this current crop represents the single most extreme epitomization of educated but ignorant blinders wearing foolish idealists ever to control DC. It's a very frightening prospect and has the potential to literally destroy this country. Even though that sounds dramatic and extreme, we have to remember we're not even halfway through this clod's four year term.
Undoubtedly, if this was a game of Chicago 16 inch softball, the slaughter rule would be called. These folks are in so far over their head that it is simultaneously pitiful and laughable, but not funny.
Very good analysis. It is going to get worse. Whether or not you believe Peter Zeihan on the failure of the global economy, or the likely implosion of China, but one thing is for certain; we no longer have a political party in the United States which stands for small government. We have the big spending party, and the bigger spending party, each is waiting to bail us out of the mess that they got us into. They will, as they did during Covid, expect to us to be grateful for a lower standard of living and a depreciated future, because, after all is done, they will point out with pride and say: It could have been so much worse!
Oct 13, 2022·edited Oct 13, 2022Liked by Jeffrey Carter
Jeffrey, it feels like we will go lower than 3200 on the S&P. No capitulation yet. Feels worse.
What say you?
Also, why is it that nearly EVERYTHING...bacon, fuel, energy, most food, etc, etc. is up double digits but overall inflation is only 8%? They HAVE to be fiddling with the numbers.
42.9% airline fares
33.1% utility gas
30.5% eggs
18.2% gasoline
17.2% chicken
15.7% coffee
15.2% milk
14.7% bread
10.1% furniture
9.2% vegetables
8.2% all items
8.2% fruit
8.1% ham
7.6% women apparel
7.2% used cars
6.7% rent
3.7% men apparel
The only reason to vote Democrat is if you want to assure your own financial destruction.
Excellent recap of the present situation.
I was reading someone who claims that the Fed's magic incantations of the late 70s/early 80s won't work this time around. Back then it was a high inflation, but low-ish debt. Fed rates of even 10% (not even thinking about the 20% back then) would be catastrophic. This is more like the high debt-high inflation period of the 40s. I don't know what happens...
Also, the Democrats have "encouraged" low investment in energy production. Not just financially but also psychologically, so to speak. Energy companies will need to be assured that they won't be punished for investing again - the current attempts to punish them for "obscene windfall profits" will not help. And then, even if reassured, it will still take a few years to see the results.
Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind. At least we're not Europe.
Yes, your two primary reasons are very important. Another interesting point many have not been speaking of recently is the expectations of increased demand for energy, as more people are expected to return to their office instead of working from home, which will further drive up prices.
The stunning realization has not hit so many of the head in the sand Democrats and the ramifications of the single most inept and incompetent administration in this nation's history are likely to be felt for multiple years.
So often politicians lack vision, but this current crop represents the single most extreme epitomization of educated but ignorant blinders wearing foolish idealists ever to control DC. It's a very frightening prospect and has the potential to literally destroy this country. Even though that sounds dramatic and extreme, we have to remember we're not even halfway through this clod's four year term.
Undoubtedly, if this was a game of Chicago 16 inch softball, the slaughter rule would be called. These folks are in so far over their head that it is simultaneously pitiful and laughable, but not funny.
Very good analysis. It is going to get worse. Whether or not you believe Peter Zeihan on the failure of the global economy, or the likely implosion of China, but one thing is for certain; we no longer have a political party in the United States which stands for small government. We have the big spending party, and the bigger spending party, each is waiting to bail us out of the mess that they got us into. They will, as they did during Covid, expect to us to be grateful for a lower standard of living and a depreciated future, because, after all is done, they will point out with pride and say: It could have been so much worse!
Jeffrey, it feels like we will go lower than 3200 on the S&P. No capitulation yet. Feels worse.
What say you?
Also, why is it that nearly EVERYTHING...bacon, fuel, energy, most food, etc, etc. is up double digits but overall inflation is only 8%? They HAVE to be fiddling with the numbers.
REAL inflation is more like 20% IMHO.
Watch as these opinions become facts. Winter is coming. And its gonna get bad out there.