It's Over For The Economy

Deep Recession

How high is inflation? Inflation numbers are out today. CPI is up 8.2%. The last three numbers are 9.1% and 8.3%, so look for Biden’s press secretary to say they are winning the battle on inflation. The core price index was steady at up .6%. Housing prices make up a large piece of CPI and many Americans have a lot of their personal wealth tied up in their home. Housing prices have cracked and are in a bear market. Real estate markets all over the country are frozen. Food prices are skyrocketing up by 1.2%. It’s no better in the rest of the world.

Joe Biden tried to say we “might go into a small recession”. He’s an idiot and this economy is all on him. We are in a recession and we are going into a deep one. I don’t see anything changing until at a bare minimum 2026.

If the Biden Administration didn’t do two things we wouldn’t be in as bad a shape as we are. They are

1. A total all-out war on American fossil fuels

2. Massive increases in government spending

We would still have some inflation due to Covid. But, the deliberate actions of Biden and the Congressional Democrats put more fuel on the pyre and lit it.

The Fed needed to raise rates a lot sooner than they did. We had 0% rates for so long and less than 2% rates for a long time. But, if Biden wouldn’t do what he did and continue to pursue it, rates would be moderating right now. Instead, the Fed is left with no choice but to raise rates.

But, as I said before raising rates doesn’t do anything if the government doesn’t quit spending and energy is expensive.

The Wall Street Journal published this handy point and click chart so you can see different sectors and judge for yourself how much prices went up over the last 12 months. For example, dairy is up 20.82%.

Why do I say 2026 before anything trending now changes?

• We have an election in 26 days. Even if the Republicans sweep and take over Congress, there still is an administration running the massive Executive Branch of government that will push inflationary policies. They will continue their war on fossil fuels because of “global warming” which is one of the biggest charlatan canards ever put on humanity. Hence, even with a Republican Congress things only slow down

• You assume Republicans will cut spending and do the right things. That’s a big assumption. There is a new crop of Republicans that are running that seem to “get it” and hopefully will be a strong voice in the conversation. They will be better than the Democrats but there are plenty of stupid Republicans. See Mitt Romney and Lindsay Graham.

• The next President will assume office in 2025. Assuming he/she is an accomplished executive from the Republican Party, it will take them a year to get their administration up to speed.

• Energy underpins the economy. Steady cheap energy helps moderate prices. Manufacturing needs cheap energy. People need cheap energy to get to their place of business. Trucking and shipping need cheap energy to deliver goods.

My timeline also assumes that Republicans hold the House/Senate and perhaps even extend their majority in 2026. If they get to 60 in the Senate, they can actually do some meaningful work on the 70%+ of the federal budget that is already spent and planned before anyone from any party gets sworn into office.

However, if you go back in time and look at some bear markets, they can be pernicious and last quite some time. 1966-1982 for example. Sure, there were some bull runs during those years but they weren’t sustainable. In the 1970s with the Jimmy Carter Economy, it took Ronald Reagan to take us out of the molasses. He was elected in 1980, took office in 1981, and it wasn’t until 1982 that things perked up. I was lucky to graduate college in 1984 and get a job. I can remember people going to college and not being able to get a decent job in the late 70s.

These people that are leaving jobs in this economy better have some sort of talent that companies can’t get anywhere else. Because even though the headline unemployment number looks okay, I wouldn’t be sure of it looking okay in the future. I see a lot of layoffs happening in many different unrelated industries.

I was speaking with our landscaper. He had a nice business and his wife was staying home with the kids. She had to take a graveyard shift job at an Amazon warehouse so they could buy gas for their car and truck.

Every day, The Joe Biden Economy takes a bigger and bigger chunk out of your net worth and increases the drain on your savings with the cost of living increases. The market is going to open down big today. Vote accordingly.