The part I find most shocking is further down the page and discusses that <quote>not only has all job creation in the past 4 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers, but there has been negative job-creation for native born workers since December 2019</quote>
They've massaged the data presented from the St Louis Fed (<quote>Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born</quote> - I didn't include the links).
@jeffreycarter I wonder how much of the healthcare+social assistance jobs that were created were funded by the government? A lot of new NGOs hiring people part-time and full-time with grants and other free government money. The government does not reflect our economy.
NFP is a flawed data point, it is based on a telephone survey of about 120,000 companies only half of which actually respond. Now compare that to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages which draws its data directly from the mandatory quarterly payroll tax filings of 12,000,000 employers. Which seems likely to give the most accurate result? Now compare the last full year's data from each, 2023, and you will find that NFP shows and amazing 720,000 more jobs than the far, far more accurate QCEW. In other words, for 2023 the NFP on average overstated jobs by 60,000 every month.
The numbers are always revised downwards. The fools on the business channels never look into the numbers deep enough. It has been a shell game, just like the 14 million jobs that Biden created.
Interesting thing about any jobs numbers posted over the last 12 months is the number of jobs going to people who already have jobs and needed a second job to survive.
You could cut daily rates a small amount. But as a Milty fan, what is really needed is a reduction in the money stock outstanding. You don't need rate increases for that. You need to remove money. My preference would be for the Fed to begin auctions of its mid to long dated MBS and treasury portfolios in large amounts (trillions). I don't care about the losses they would take. Don't matter. But removing that cash would result in an immediate reduction in inflationary pressures across the board. In addition, it would also help with something else. One of the big issues that caused 2007-2009 was the fact too many professionals disregarded the need for looking at what really constituted the yield within their securities portfolios. Hence thinking that something like a AAA CDO with absolute junk inside it was a good product to purchase. I think a healthy round of auctions of the current Fed holdings would lead to the market really thinking about what rates should be for these longer dated instruments which in turn would give market participants really good data.
Zerohedge looked at the BLS report late last week.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside-most-ridiculous-jobs-report-years
The part I find most shocking is further down the page and discusses that <quote>not only has all job creation in the past 4 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers, but there has been negative job-creation for native born workers since December 2019</quote>
I am not sure how they tease out that data.
They've massaged the data presented from the St Louis Fed (<quote>Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born</quote> - I didn't include the links).
Maybe we live in such bizarro world that the BLS can ask workers their immigration status but the Census can't. :)
@jeffreycarter I wonder how much of the healthcare+social assistance jobs that were created were funded by the government? A lot of new NGOs hiring people part-time and full-time with grants and other free government money. The government does not reflect our economy.
Almost all I suspect
NFP is a flawed data point, it is based on a telephone survey of about 120,000 companies only half of which actually respond. Now compare that to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages which draws its data directly from the mandatory quarterly payroll tax filings of 12,000,000 employers. Which seems likely to give the most accurate result? Now compare the last full year's data from each, 2023, and you will find that NFP shows and amazing 720,000 more jobs than the far, far more accurate QCEW. In other words, for 2023 the NFP on average overstated jobs by 60,000 every month.
JOLTS isn't looking good either.
The numbers are always revised downwards. The fools on the business channels never look into the numbers deep enough. It has been a shell game, just like the 14 million jobs that Biden created.
Interesting thing about any jobs numbers posted over the last 12 months is the number of jobs going to people who already have jobs and needed a second job to survive.
True dat
Vote for Tony Grady - good man.
too bad he got beat. GO SAM BROWN
This, a thousand times, this:
“… the multiplier effect of government spending on GDP is 0. Zero. Nada. If you look at it more stringently, it’s negative due to opportunity costs.”
The notion that there is a ‘plus-one Keynesian multiplier’ for government spending is pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking.
The link seems to be bad. Goes to the story about Elon banning Apple devices.
Thanks, link fixed. Been busy this morning...
You could cut daily rates a small amount. But as a Milty fan, what is really needed is a reduction in the money stock outstanding. You don't need rate increases for that. You need to remove money. My preference would be for the Fed to begin auctions of its mid to long dated MBS and treasury portfolios in large amounts (trillions). I don't care about the losses they would take. Don't matter. But removing that cash would result in an immediate reduction in inflationary pressures across the board. In addition, it would also help with something else. One of the big issues that caused 2007-2009 was the fact too many professionals disregarded the need for looking at what really constituted the yield within their securities portfolios. Hence thinking that something like a AAA CDO with absolute junk inside it was a good product to purchase. I think a healthy round of auctions of the current Fed holdings would lead to the market really thinking about what rates should be for these longer dated instruments which in turn would give market participants really good data.