Also they had no liquidity management. Who allows a balance sheet structure that lets depositors present $4 billion in a single day? Any competent bank team terms out its liabilities so they don’t all come due at the same time.
Where was the SF FRB? Didn’t they have a team of examiners on-site all the time? Weren’t they looking at liquidity reports and contingency funding plans?
Agree! Not sure about the SF FRB since it was a state chartered bank. I am uninformed when it comes to chain of command on the banking system. But, knowing our Federal govt you have to assume the SF FRB is more concerned with legal pot and the homeless along with equity instead of making sure banks are tidy and up on their risk management. Or they are too busy dodging human poop and needles in the street to be able to get anywhere to make sure they are in compliance.
There will be zero appetite to bail out SVB. I don’t recall seeing a bail out for the people of East Palestine OH. VC investing and lending are inherently risky. They assumed that risk and compounded it by poor balance sheet management, most proper run banks would hedge that exposure. The only government support I could see happen is a buyer will likely want a back stop or a guarantee for souring loans from government. Similar thing happened through FDIC arranged mergers in 08, I don’t think it should be provided but without that guarantee I don’t see a buyer. Those discussions are being had in bank board rooms across America this weekend.
some bank will buy them. They will need liquidity to get the hold to maturity portfolio to maturity...my best guess is all the depositors will get their money back. However, and debt/equity/payable holders will be wiped out.
You know what's scary? I'm worried that some airlines are full on woke and now value diversity above all else. It's one thing to crash a bank, quite another to crash airplanes. If pilots are hired based upon being gay, brown and transgender, versus actual flight skills, track record, it's not going to end well.
I too look forward to the abandonment of the touchy feely crap. But it only seems to be ramping. Glad that I'm older and don't have to work in corporate ever again. "Diversity", makes me want to throw up, especially when most practitioners of it are racist. ESG is for morons. Good day and thanks for the post.
I left corporate America in 2004 and it was well on its way in certain companies. Even at that time I was passed over for a promotion because my boss confided that they had to give to another person for "quota" reasons. Given that my performance was rated 5/5 in 12 of 13 categories I was angry enough to leave and start up my own company.
To this day I'm grateful they did that to me, because it got me out early enough to be successful and break away from corporate permanently. I wasn't worried about a family yet. I insisted then that corporate America was more socialist than any institution in our country, what with everyone getting the same 3% raise and everyone being afraid to promote based on merit versus HR's "needs."
I think now it is just more brazen and everyone in it seems to agree with it. Let 'em have it. I've never once looked back.
Speaking of Nevada, the Las Vegas airport and the adverse effects of DEI, Tucker has done a couple of segments on the application of DEI to the hiring of airline pilots, and has singled out Southwest Airlines. It seems pretty clear that pilots hired under the old school standards are feeding information for these reports. I typically transit through Harry Reid (ugh!) airport to fly from Reno to SoCal, relying on Southwest, but now I'm having second thoughts. Bank failures are bad enough, but they pale in comparison with plane crashes. Any ideas on how to factor this into your travel plans?
Great post from Cochrane. VCs and their portfolio companies put money in poorly run bank that sucks up to them. VCs realize bank is poorly run. VCs cause run. VCs demand bailout - Silicon Valley is the largest regional whine producer on Twitter this weekend. Maybe a bailout is the right answer. Maybe the VCs and the LPs should take a big hit too. Cronyism at its best. https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2023/03/silicon-valley-bank-blinders.html
Ha, he is the best. There should be no bailout, but I am empathetic to startups who had money there. He linked to Michael Cembelist-worth reading that too. Cochrane concludes a mismatch on duration---which is true; and a total failure of regulation---which is true. He is the ONLY person echoing exactly what I have said. If you have a mismatch in duration, then use the futures or swap market to hedge and you are covered. Why they didn't is a mystery.
As Cochrane points out any business that has ongoing value will be recapitalized. Chapter 11 is not necessarily a death sentence. As a PBGC claim holder, I've got plenty of empathy.
Vivek Ramaswamy was on CNN SOTU this morning and is worth watching. He said the right things on this issue (and others). Too bad he's got no chance in what is shaping up to be a clown show.
That is correct. But, boy as an investor what a really hard pill to swallow. I understand the lament of both the VCs and startups----although I don't agree with them. The one silver lining is that a lot of that money was in bank accounts, then customer repos, or other instruments like that so depositors should be made whole; except it will take a long time to get it back. That creates a cash crunch at the startup on paying vendors, but especially with payroll. There are gigantic legal ramifications for missing payroll, both businesswise and from a personal liability standpoint. Vivek has zero chance. Smart guy but zero chance.
Lots of really good info here. One small point. When you say pay payroll and pay the irs. Agree, but the big issue is paying the employee payroll taxes withheld from their paychecks. That is what is known as the "trust fund portion". Personal liability, IRS will never ever, let me repeat that, the IRS will never ever settle on that. You pay, keep paying or upon your death, your estate will keep paying any trust fund amount, interest or penalties due. Its one of the very very few areas that they can go after any ERISA covered assets you have too. They can even garnish your SS payout. Never not pay trust fund amounts when due. Pay them above all else if you have any responsibility over this. If you are a signor on the bank account - make sure its paid.
That's what I meant by paying the IRS....employee taxes. Never ever skip those. I lump all taxing agencies in the govt with the IRS. That's why we need to get rid of it all and just implement a FairTax.org
I'll freely admit that I have very little idea what Silicon Valley Bank was doing. But when it comes to stuff that I'm mostly ignorant about, like cryptocurrency, I don't put my money into it. So I have no money in SVB, noting in crypto, and don't have to worry too much about it.
I understand that Biden is trying to destroy the country, although I don't understand why. I do have some investments in "precious" metals, small ingots of lead and copper with brass bases.
There was no hedging, but there was a swap on the books, but I don't know the terms (legs), nor the margin schedule, nor the PRIVATE counterparty of who of course now owns part of the problem.
I'm wondering if Uncle Larry's pressures via ISS got them that particular flavor of "Risk" officer. Seems to have helped.
I also found it interesting that they were CA chartered, yet CEO sat on SF Fed board until last night. Still a LOT of dust flying, so I'll wait til some more thumps hit the floor. (I don't THINK I'm going to get tapped on the shoulder, so we'll see....)
Any predictions about the sale of company stock by SVB upper management in the run up to the failure? Some of these schmucks are woke, but I bet when it comes to their own backsides. I hope someone who knows about the trading regs follows up.
And thanks for the summary. I know nothing about business and it made the whole situation a lot more understandable.
None of this makes any sense. How the regulators missed this is amazing. It seems so simple to hedge these positions a year ago, it’s ridiculous that they didn’t.
I would say that Uncle Warren is going to be asked to come in here. It would be ironic considering his disdain for all things crypto.
Also they had no liquidity management. Who allows a balance sheet structure that lets depositors present $4 billion in a single day? Any competent bank team terms out its liabilities so they don’t all come due at the same time.
Where was the SF FRB? Didn’t they have a team of examiners on-site all the time? Weren’t they looking at liquidity reports and contingency funding plans?
Incredible incompetence here on all sides.
Meant to say $40 plus billion not $4 billion.
Agree! Not sure about the SF FRB since it was a state chartered bank. I am uninformed when it comes to chain of command on the banking system. But, knowing our Federal govt you have to assume the SF FRB is more concerned with legal pot and the homeless along with equity instead of making sure banks are tidy and up on their risk management. Or they are too busy dodging human poop and needles in the street to be able to get anywhere to make sure they are in compliance.
State banks that choose to be Fed members are regulated jointly by the state and the Fed. State nonmembers are regulated by the state and the FDIC.
SVB was a Fed member - I looked it up.
Agreed. $40bln walking out of the door in one day would likely take down most banks in US.
There will be zero appetite to bail out SVB. I don’t recall seeing a bail out for the people of East Palestine OH. VC investing and lending are inherently risky. They assumed that risk and compounded it by poor balance sheet management, most proper run banks would hedge that exposure. The only government support I could see happen is a buyer will likely want a back stop or a guarantee for souring loans from government. Similar thing happened through FDIC arranged mergers in 08, I don’t think it should be provided but without that guarantee I don’t see a buyer. Those discussions are being had in bank board rooms across America this weekend.
some bank will buy them. They will need liquidity to get the hold to maturity portfolio to maturity...my best guess is all the depositors will get their money back. However, and debt/equity/payable holders will be wiped out.
Would an asset manager buy the treasury book just for the arbitrage? Buy it at a discount and hold to maturity. PIMCO?
You know what's scary? I'm worried that some airlines are full on woke and now value diversity above all else. It's one thing to crash a bank, quite another to crash airplanes. If pilots are hired based upon being gay, brown and transgender, versus actual flight skills, track record, it's not going to end well.
I too look forward to the abandonment of the touchy feely crap. But it only seems to be ramping. Glad that I'm older and don't have to work in corporate ever again. "Diversity", makes me want to throw up, especially when most practitioners of it are racist. ESG is for morons. Good day and thanks for the post.
I think Corporate America is full on woke. Not just airlines.
I left corporate America in 2004 and it was well on its way in certain companies. Even at that time I was passed over for a promotion because my boss confided that they had to give to another person for "quota" reasons. Given that my performance was rated 5/5 in 12 of 13 categories I was angry enough to leave and start up my own company.
To this day I'm grateful they did that to me, because it got me out early enough to be successful and break away from corporate permanently. I wasn't worried about a family yet. I insisted then that corporate America was more socialist than any institution in our country, what with everyone getting the same 3% raise and everyone being afraid to promote based on merit versus HR's "needs."
I think now it is just more brazen and everyone in it seems to agree with it. Let 'em have it. I've never once looked back.
Speaking of Nevada, the Las Vegas airport and the adverse effects of DEI, Tucker has done a couple of segments on the application of DEI to the hiring of airline pilots, and has singled out Southwest Airlines. It seems pretty clear that pilots hired under the old school standards are feeding information for these reports. I typically transit through Harry Reid (ugh!) airport to fly from Reno to SoCal, relying on Southwest, but now I'm having second thoughts. Bank failures are bad enough, but they pale in comparison with plane crashes. Any ideas on how to factor this into your travel plans?
I don't think about it. At some point, you have to trust that the air pilot can fly. I'd hate to have to drive EVERYWHERE!
Great post from Cochrane. VCs and their portfolio companies put money in poorly run bank that sucks up to them. VCs realize bank is poorly run. VCs cause run. VCs demand bailout - Silicon Valley is the largest regional whine producer on Twitter this weekend. Maybe a bailout is the right answer. Maybe the VCs and the LPs should take a big hit too. Cronyism at its best. https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2023/03/silicon-valley-bank-blinders.html
Ha, he is the best. There should be no bailout, but I am empathetic to startups who had money there. He linked to Michael Cembelist-worth reading that too. Cochrane concludes a mismatch on duration---which is true; and a total failure of regulation---which is true. He is the ONLY person echoing exactly what I have said. If you have a mismatch in duration, then use the futures or swap market to hedge and you are covered. Why they didn't is a mystery.
As Cochrane points out any business that has ongoing value will be recapitalized. Chapter 11 is not necessarily a death sentence. As a PBGC claim holder, I've got plenty of empathy.
Vivek Ramaswamy was on CNN SOTU this morning and is worth watching. He said the right things on this issue (and others). Too bad he's got no chance in what is shaping up to be a clown show.
That is correct. But, boy as an investor what a really hard pill to swallow. I understand the lament of both the VCs and startups----although I don't agree with them. The one silver lining is that a lot of that money was in bank accounts, then customer repos, or other instruments like that so depositors should be made whole; except it will take a long time to get it back. That creates a cash crunch at the startup on paying vendors, but especially with payroll. There are gigantic legal ramifications for missing payroll, both businesswise and from a personal liability standpoint. Vivek has zero chance. Smart guy but zero chance.
Lots of really good info here. One small point. When you say pay payroll and pay the irs. Agree, but the big issue is paying the employee payroll taxes withheld from their paychecks. That is what is known as the "trust fund portion". Personal liability, IRS will never ever, let me repeat that, the IRS will never ever settle on that. You pay, keep paying or upon your death, your estate will keep paying any trust fund amount, interest or penalties due. Its one of the very very few areas that they can go after any ERISA covered assets you have too. They can even garnish your SS payout. Never not pay trust fund amounts when due. Pay them above all else if you have any responsibility over this. If you are a signor on the bank account - make sure its paid.
That's what I meant by paying the IRS....employee taxes. Never ever skip those. I lump all taxing agencies in the govt with the IRS. That's why we need to get rid of it all and just implement a FairTax.org
I heard Harry and Megan had their money there so at least some good can come from this debacle!
Haha, that south park episode rocked. Maybe megan will dump him now if he's broke.
Loved that episode.
I’d bet those kids will land on their feet.
I actually hope they didn't. I can't imagine the victim pleas for help. Quick, someone set a up a GoFundMe for them
I'll freely admit that I have very little idea what Silicon Valley Bank was doing. But when it comes to stuff that I'm mostly ignorant about, like cryptocurrency, I don't put my money into it. So I have no money in SVB, noting in crypto, and don't have to worry too much about it.
I understand that Biden is trying to destroy the country, although I don't understand why. I do have some investments in "precious" metals, small ingots of lead and copper with brass bases.
I'm keeping my head down and hoping for the best.
There was no hedging, but there was a swap on the books, but I don't know the terms (legs), nor the margin schedule, nor the PRIVATE counterparty of who of course now owns part of the problem.
I'm wondering if Uncle Larry's pressures via ISS got them that particular flavor of "Risk" officer. Seems to have helped.
I also found it interesting that they were CA chartered, yet CEO sat on SF Fed board until last night. Still a LOT of dust flying, so I'll wait til some more thumps hit the floor. (I don't THINK I'm going to get tapped on the shoulder, so we'll see....)
🌟 🌟 🌟
Not to different than Orange County
Playing Russian roulette
Any predictions about the sale of company stock by SVB upper management in the run up to the failure? Some of these schmucks are woke, but I bet when it comes to their own backsides. I hope someone who knows about the trading regs follows up.
And thanks for the summary. I know nothing about business and it made the whole situation a lot more understandable.
You invented a new word! "Malfescence". But "Malfeasance" would make a better fit.
None of this makes any sense. How the regulators missed this is amazing. It seems so simple to hedge these positions a year ago, it’s ridiculous that they didn’t.
I would say that Uncle Warren is going to be asked to come in here. It would be ironic considering his disdain for all things crypto.